The winds of God’s wrath threatens Texas, Louisiana: Jeremiah 23

Tropical Storm Beta Drifting Around the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico; Flooding Rain Threat to Texas, Louisiana

At a Glance

Tropical Storm Beta is several hundred miles east of Brownsville, TX.

New warnings have been issued for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

This system may meander in the western Gulf the next several days.

This slow mover is a potential flood danger along the western Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Beta has stalled in the western Gulf of Mexico, which will eventually set the storm up for a slow scrape of the Texas coast into next week. Beta poses a major threat of rainfall and coastal flooding to the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

Beta’s formation is the 10th Atlantic named storm to form so far this month, which is the most on record for any September, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach. September is typically the most active month of the hurricane season.

(MORE: 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Now Using Greek Alphabet For Only the Second Time)

Current Alerts

A storm surge warning is now in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas, including Galveston. Hurricane conditions are possible in this area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Houston and Victoria, Texas and Cameron, Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are expected in this area by late Sunday.

A storm surge watch has been issued from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas in South Texas, including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay; and from High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake.

A tropical storm watch has been issued from south of Port Aransas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande and east of High Island to Morgan City, Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are possible in this area by late Saturday.

Current Wind Watches and Warnings

Beta’s Forecast

With plenty of warm ocean water and lessening wind shear, this system is expected to intensify gradually through the weekend. Some dry air and wind shear are hindering Beta’s circulation this afternoon.

How strong it will become remains uncertain but is currently expected to become a hurricane. Water temperatures are very warm, which supports intensification, and wind shear should remain low to moderate, at most. However, it could be impacted by some dry air and it could eventually churn up enough cooler water below the surface to keep a lid on its intensification.

Current Storm Status and Projected Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Beta’s center may hop around over the next few days as it tries to keep up with the thunderstorms that will power Beta into early next week. This will likely lead to jumps in the forecast left and right.

Even without the jumps in the forecast, this system has a number of twists and turns in its future.

First, a high pressure system setting up over the south-central U.S. has turned Beta westward at a slow pacr. This should be the most prevalent motion through the weekend and possibly into Monday.

After that, a dip in the jet stream and some lower pressures over the South may pick up Beta and take it northeastward by the middle part of next week, near or over the Texas or Louisiana coasts.

Steering Features

(Two big weather features will push Beta around in the northwestern Gulf over the next five days. )

Forecast Threats

Slow-moving tropical cyclones can be prolific rainfall producers, as we saw along the Gulf Coast and inland with Hurricane Sally.

Beta has been dropping light to moderate rainfall across southeastern Louisiana and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama through much of Saturday. This plume of moisture may rotate westward or counter-clockwise through Louisiana and into Texas into Sunday.

Current Radar

(Note: Radar returns in some areas may appear lower than reality due to the obliteration of the Lake Charles radar during Hurricane Laura. )

Beta is expected to be no exception, in fact, the National Hurricane Center doubled its earlier rainfall forecast.

(MORE: A Hurricane’s Forward Speeds Can Be As Important as Its Intensity)

Much of southern Louisiana and coastal Texas should expect 8-12 inches of rainfall with isolated totals up to 20 inches possible.

Given Beta’s slow movement, heavy rainfall and flooding is an increasing danger near the Texas coast and possibly the Louisiana coast through next week.

A flash flood watch has been issued for portions of southeastern Texas.

Given the numerous changes in forward direction and upper-level winds, the zone of heaviest rainfall will likely change from day to day.

This is not expected to produce rainfall that is anywhere comparable to Hurricane Harvey or Imelda.

Rainfall Outlook

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall.)

Increased surf and rip currents are also expected from northeastern Mexico to the northern Gulf Coast, beginning as soon as this weekend.

The National Weather Service notes that significant coastal flooding is possible on the middle and upper Texas coast through at least Tuesday morning, and coastal flooding might be possible in southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi into early next week.

Persistent onshore flow and a possible storm surge component in combination with heavy rainfall could only worsen flooding near the coast into next week.

Here’s the current storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

Gusty winds will begin by Sunday afternoon across much of the western and northern Gulf Coast.

Winds could reach tropical-storm-force by late Sunday along portions of the Texas Coast and parts of the southwestern Louisiana coast.

Exactly where the worst winds are going to come ashore is uncertain, but hurricane conditions are possible between Corpus Christi and Galveston late Monday.

A few tornadoes are also possible on the upper Texas Coast on Monday.

For now, all interests near the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts should monitor closely the progress of this system and have their hurricane plans ready to go ahead of time in case it’s needed.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Ramapo Fault and the Sixth Seal (Revelation 6:12)

Living on the Fault Line
A major earthquake isn’t likely here, but if it comes, watch out.
Posted June 15, 2010 by Wayne J. Guglielmo
This chart shows the location of the Ramapo Fault System, the longest and one of the oldest systems of cracks in the earth’s crust in the Northeast. It also shows the location of all earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater in New Jersey during the last 50 years. The circle in blue indicates the largest known Jersey quake.
The couple checked with Burns’s parents, who live in nearby Basking Ridge, and they, too, had heard and felt something, which they thought might have been an earthquake. A call by Burns some 20 minutes later to the Bernardsville Police Department—one of many curious and occasionally panicky inquiries that Sunday morning, according to the officer in charge, Sergeant John Remian—confirmed their suspicion: A magnitude 2.6 earthquake, its epicenter in Peapack/Gladstone, about seven miles from Bernardsville, had hit the area. A smaller aftershock followed about two and a half hours later.
After this year’s epic earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Mexico, Indonesia, and China, the 2.6 quake and aftershock that shook parts of New Jersey in February may seem minor league, even to the Somerset County residents who experienced them. On the exponential Richter Scale, a magnitude 7.0 quake like the one that hit Haiti in January is almost 4 million times stronger than a quake of 2.6 magnitude. But comparisons of magnitude don’t tell the whole story.
Northern New Jersey straddles the Ramapo Fault, a significant ancient crack in the earth’s crust. The longest fault in the Northeast, it begins in Pennsylvania and moves into New Jersey, trending northeast through Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Passaic, and Bergen counties before terminating in New York’s Westchester County, not far from the Indian Point Energy Center, a nuclear power plant. And though scientists dispute how active this roughly 200 million-year-old fault really is, many earthquakes in the state’s surprisingly varied seismic history are believed to have occurred on or near it. The fault line is visible at ground level and likely extends as deep as nine miles below the surface.
During the past 230 years or so, New Jersey has been at the epicenter of nearly 170 earthquakes, according to data compiled by the New Jersey Geological Survey, part of the United States Department of Environmental Protection. The largest known quake struck in 1783, somewhere west of New York City, perhaps in Sussex County. It’s typically listed as 5.3 in magnitude, though that’s an estimate by seismologists who are quick to point out that the concept of magnitude—measuring the relative size of an earthquake—was not introduced until 1935 by Charles Richter and Beno Gutenberg. Still, for quakes prior to that, scientists are not just guessing.
“We can figure out the damage at the time by going back to old records and newspaper accounts,” says Won-Young Kim, a senior research scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, directly across the New Jersey border. “Once the amount and extent of contemporary damage has been established,” Kim says, “we’re then able to gauge the pattern of ground shaking or intensity of the event—and from there extrapolate its probable magnitude.”
Other earthquakes of magnitude 5 or higher have been felt in New Jersey, although their epicenters laying near New York City. One—which took place in 1737 and was said to have been felt as far north as Boston and as far south as northern Delaware—was probably in the 5 to 5.5 range. In 1884, an earthquake of similar magnitude occurred off New York’s Rockaway Beach. This well-documented event pulled houses off their foundations and caused steeples to topple as far west as Rahway. The shock wave, scientists believe, was felt over 70,000 square miles, from Vermont to Maryland.
Among the largest sub-5 magnitude earthquakes with epicenters in New Jersey, two (a 3.8 and a 4.0) took place on the same day in 1938 in the Lakehurst area in Ocean County. On August 26, 2003, a 3.5 magnitude quake shook the Frenchtown/Milford area in Hunterdon County. On February 3 of last year, a 3.0 magnitude quake occurred in the Morris County town of Mendham. “A lot of people felt this one because of the intense shaking, although the area of intensity wasn’t very wide,” says Lamont-Doherty’s Kim, who visited the site after the event.
After examining the known historical and geological record, Kim and other seismologists have found no clear evidence that an earthquake of greater than 5.3 to 5.5 magnitude has taken place in this area going back to 1737. This doesn’t mean, of course, that one did not take place in the more remote past or that one will not occur in the future; it simply means that a very large quake is less likely to occur here than in other places in the east where the seismic hazard is greater, including areas in South Carolina and northeastern New York State.
But no area on the East Coast is as densely populated or as heavily built-up as parts of New Jersey and its neighbors. For this reason, scientists refer to the Greater New York City-Philadelphia area, which includes New Jersey’s biggest cities, as one of “low earthquake hazard but high vulnerability.” Put simply, the Big One isn’t likely here—but if it comes, especially in certain locations, watch out.
Given this low-hazard, high-vulnerability scenario, how far along are scientists in their efforts to predict larger magnitude earthquakes in the New Jersey area? The answer is complex, complicated by the state’s geographical position, its unique geological history, the state of seismology itself, and the continuing debate over the exact nature and activity of the Ramapo Fault.
Over millions of years, New Jersey developed four distinct physiographic provinces or regions, which divide the state into a series of diagonal slices, each with its own terrain, rock type, and geological landforms.
The northernmost slice is the Valley and Ridge, comprising major portions of Sussex and Warren counties. The southernmost slice is the Coastal Plain, a huge expanse that covers some three-fifths of the state, including all of the Shore counties. Dividing the rest of the state are the Highlands, an area for the most part of solid but brittle rock right below the Valley and Ridge, and the lower lands of the Piedmont, which occupy all of Essex, Hudson, and Union counties, most of Bergen, Hunterdon, and Somerset, and parts of Middlesex, Morris, and Passaic.
For earthquake monitors and scientists, the formation of these last two provinces—the Highlands and the Piedmont—are of special interest. To understand why, consider that prior to the appearance of the Atlantic Ocean, today’s Africa was snuggled cozily up against North America and surrounded by a single enormous ocean. “At that point, you could have had exits off the New Jersey Turnpike for Morocco,” says Alexander Gates, professor of geology and chair of the department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Rutgers-Newark.
Under the pressure of circulating material within the Earth’s super-hot middle layer, or mantle, what was once a single continent—one that is thought to have included today’s other continents as well—began to stretch and eventually break, producing numerous cracks or faults and ultimately separating to form what became the Atlantic Ocean. In our area, the longest and most active of these many cracks was the Ramapo Fault, which, through a process known as normal faulting, caused one side of the earth’s crust to slip lower—the Piedmont—relative to the other side—the Highlands. “All this occurred about 225 million years ago,” says Gates. “Back then, you were talking about thousands of feet between the Highlands and the Piedmont and a very active Ramapo Fault.”
The Earth’s crust, which is 20 to 25 miles thick, is not a single, solid shell, but is broken into seven vast tectonic plates, which drift atop the soft, underlying mantle. Although the northeast-trending Ramapo Fault neatly divides two of New Jersey’s four physiographic provinces, it does not form a so-called plate boundary, as does California’s infamous San Andreas Fault. As many Californians know all too well, this giant fault forms the boundary between two plates—to the west, the Pacific Plate, and to the east, the North American Plate; these rub up against each other, producing huge stresses and a regularly repeating pattern of larger earthquakes.
The Ramapo Fault sits on the North American Plate, which extends past the East Coast to the middle of the Atlantic, where it meets the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, an underwater mountain range in constant flux. The consequences of this intraplate setting are huge: First, as Gates points out, “The predictability of bigger earthquakes on…[such] settings is exceedingly poor, because they don’t occur very often.” Second, the intraplate setting makes it more difficult to link our earthquakes to a major cause or fault, as monitors in California can often do.
This second bit of uncertainty is especially troubling for some people, including some in the media who want a neat story. To get around it, they ignore the differences between plate settings and link all of New Jersey’s earthquakes, either directly or implicitly, to the Ramapo Fault. In effect, such people want the Ramapo Fault “to look like the San Andreas Fault,” says Gates. “They want to be able to point to one big fault that’s causing all of our earthquakes.”
Gates does not think that’s the case, and he has been working with colleagues for a number of years to prove it. “What we have found is that there are smaller faults that generally cut from east to west across the northeast-trending Ramapo Fault,” he explains. “These much smaller faults are all over the place, and they’re actually the ones that are the active faults in the area.”
But what mechanisms are responsible for the formation of these apparently active auxiliary faults? One such mechanism, say scientists, is the westward pressure the Atlantic Ocean exerts on the North American Plate, which for the most part resists any movement. “I think we are in an equilibrium state most of the time,” says Lamont-Doherty’s Kim.
Still, that continuous pressure on the plate we sit on causes stress, and when that stress builds up sufficiently, the earth’s crust has a tendency to break around any weak zones. In our area, the major weak zone is the Ramapo Fault—“an ancient zone of weakness,” as Kim calls it. That zone of weakness exacerbates the formation of auxiliary faults, and thereby the series of minor earthquakes the state has experienced over the years.
All this presupposes, of course, that any intraplate stress in this area will continue to be released gradually, in a series of relatively minor earthquakes or releases of energy. But what if that were not the case? What if the stress continued to build up, and the release of large amounts of energy came all at once? In crude terms, that’s part of the story behind the giant earthquakes that rocked what is now New Madrid, Missouri, between 1811 and 1812. Although estimates of their magnitude have been revised downward in recent years to less than magnitude 8, these earthquakes are generally regarded as among the largest intraplate events to have occurred in the continental United States.
For a number of reasons—including the relatively low odds that the kind of stored energy that unleashed the New Madrid events could ever build up here—earthquakes of plus-6 magnitude are probably not in our future. Still, says Kim, even a magnitude 6 earthquake in certain areas of the state could do considerable damage, especially if its intensity or ground shaking was of sufficient strength. In a state as geologically diverse and densely populated as New Jersey, this is a crucial wild card.
Part of the job of the experts at the New Jersey Geological Survey is to assess the seismic hazards in different parts of the state. To do this, they use a computer-simulation model developed under the direction of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, known as HAZUS, for Hazards US. To assess the amount of ground shaking likely to occur in a given county during events ranging in magnitude from 5 to 7 on the Richter Scale, NJGS scientists enter three features of a county’s surface geology into their computer model. Two of these features relate to the tendency of soil in a given area to lose strength, liquefy, or slide downhill when shaken. The third and most crucial feature has to do with the depth and density of the soil itself and the type of bedrock lying below it; this is a key component in determining a region’s susceptibility to ground shaking and, therefore, in estimating the amount of building and structural damage that’s likely to occur in that region. Estimates for the various counties—nine to date have been studied—are sent to the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management, which provided partial funding for the project.
To appreciate why this element of ground geology is so crucial to earthquake modelers, consider the following: An earthquake’s intensity—which is measured on something called the Modified Mercalli Scale—is related to a number of factors. The amount of energy released or the magnitude of an event is clearly a big factor. But two earthquakes of the same magnitude can have very different levels of intensity; in fact, it’s quite possible for a lower magnitude event to generate more ground shaking than a higher magnitude one.
In addition to magnitude, other factors that affect intensity are the distance of the observer or structure from the epicenter, where intensity is the greatest; the depth beneath the surface of the initial rupture, with shallower ruptures producing more ground shaking than deeper ones; and, most significantly, the ground geology or material that the shock wave generated by the earthquake must pass through.
As a rule, softer materials like sand and gravel shake much more intensely than harder materials, because the softer materials are comparatively inefficient energy conductors, so whatever energy is released by the quake tends to be trapped, dispersing much more slowly. (Think of a bowl of Jell-O on a table that’s shaking.)
In contrast, harder materials, like the solid rock found widely in the Highlands, are brittle and break under pressure, but conduct energy well, so that even big shock waves disperse much more rapidly through them, thereby weakening the amount of ground shaking. “If you’ve read any stories about the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, you know the most intense damage was in those flat, low areas by the Bay, where the soil is soft, and not in the hilly, rocky areas above,” says Karl Muessig, state geologist and NJGS head.
The map that accompanies the online version of the NJGS’s Earthquake Loss Estimation Study divides the state’s surface geology into five seismic soil classes, ranging from Class A, or hard rock, to Class E, or soft soil (
Although the weakest soils are scattered throughout the state, including the Highlands, which besides harder rock also contains areas of glacial lakes, clays, and wetlands, they are most evident in the Piedmont and the Coastal Plain. “The largest expanses of them are in coastal areas where you have salt marshes or large glacial lakes, as in parts of the Passaic River basin,” says Scott Stanford, a research scientist with NJGS and lead author of the estimate. Some of the very weakest soils, Stanford adds, are in areas of filled marshland, including places along the Hudson waterfront, around Newark Bay and the Meadowlands, and along the Arthur Kill.
Faults in these areas—and in the coastal plain generally—are far below the ground, perhaps several hundred to a thousand feet down, making identification difficult. “There are numerous faults upon which you might get earthquake movement that we can’t see, because they’re covered by younger sediments,” Stanford says.
This combination of hidden faults and weak soils worries scientists, who are all too aware that parts of the coastal plain and Piedmont are among the most densely populated and developed areas in the state. (The HAZUS computer model also has a “built environment” component, which summarizes, among other things, types of buildings in a given area.) For this reason, such areas would be in the most jeopardy in the event of a large earthquake.
“Any vulnerable structure on these weak soils would have a higher failure hazard,” Stanford says. And the scary truth is that many structures in New Jersey’s largest cities, not to mention New York City, would be vulnerable, since they’re older and built before anyone gave much thought to earthquake-related engineering and construction codes.
For example, in the study’s loss estimate for Essex County, which includes Newark, the state’s largest city, a magnitude 6 event would result in damage to 81,600 buildings, including almost 10,000 extensively or completely; 36,000 people either displaced from their homes or forced to seek short-term shelter; almost $9 million in economic losses from property damage and business interruption; and close to 3,300 injuries and 50 fatalities. (The New York City Area Consortium for Earthquake Loss Mitigation has conducted a similar assessment for New York City, at
All of this suggests the central irony of New Jersey geology: The upland areas that are most prone to earthquakes—the counties in or around the Ramapo Fault, which has spawned a network of splays, or auxiliary faults—are much less densely populated and sit, for the most part, on good bedrock. These areas are not invulnerable, certainly, but, by almost all measures, they would not sustain very severe damage, even in the event of a higher magnitude earthquake. The same can’t be said for other parts of the state, where the earthquake hazard is lower but the vulnerability far greater. Here, the best we can do is to prepare—both in terms of better building codes and a constantly improving emergency response.
Meanwhile, scientists like Rutgers’s Gates struggle to understand the Earth’s quirky seismic timetable: “The big thing with earthquakes is that you can commonly predict where they are going to occur,” Gates says. “When they’re going to come, well, we’re nowhere near being able to figure that out.”
Planning for the Big One
For the men and women of the state police who manage and support the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the response to some events, like hurricanes, can be marshalled in advance. But an earthquake is what responders call a no-notice event.
In New Jersey, even minor earthquakes—like the one that shook parts of Somerset County in February—attract the notice of local, county, and OEM officials, who continuously monitor events around the state from their Regional Operations and Intelligence Center (The ROIC) in West Trenton, a multimillion dollar command-and-control facility that has been built to withstand 125 mph winds and a 5.5 magnitude earthquake. In the event of a very large earthquake, during which local and county resources are apt to become quickly overwhelmed, command and control authority would almost instantly pass to West Trenton.
Here, officials from the state police, representatives of a galaxy of other state agencies, and a variety of communications and other experts would assemble in the cavernous and ultra-high tech Emergency Operations Center to oversee the state’s response. “A high-level earthquake would definitely cause the governor to declare a state of emergency,” says OEM public information officer Nicholas J. Morici. “And once that takes place, our emergency operations plan would be put in motion.”
Emergency officials have modeled that plan—one that can be adapted to any no-notice event, including a terrorist attack—on response methodologies developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. At its core is a series of seventeen emergency support functions, ranging from transportation to firefighting, debris removal, search and rescue, public health, and medical services. A high-magnitude event would likely activate all of these functions, says Morici, along with the human and physical resources needed to carry them out—cranes and heavy trucks for debris removal, fire trucks and teams for firefighting, doctors and EMTs for medical services, buses and personnel carriers for transportation, and so on.
This is where an expert like Tom Rafferty comes in. Rafferty is a Geographic Information Systems Specialist attached to the OEM. His job during an emergency is to keep track electronically of which resources are where in the state, so they can be deployed quickly to where they are needed. “We have a massive database called the Resource Directory Database in which we have geolocated municipal, county, and state assets to a very detailed map of New Jersey,” Rafferty says. “That way, if there is an emergency like an earthquake going on in one area, the emergency managers can quickly say to me, for instance, ‘We have major debris and damage on this spot of the map. Show us the location of the nearest heavy hauler. Show us the next closest location,’ and so on.”
A very large quake, Rafferty says, “could overwhelm resources that we have as a state.” In that event, OEM has the authority to reach out to FEMA for additional resources and assistance. It can also call upon the private sector—the Resource Directory has been expanded to include non-government assets—and to a network of volunteers. “No one has ever said, ‘We don’t want to help,’” Rafferty says. New Jersey officials can also request assistance through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC), an agreement among the states to help each other in times of extreme crisis.
“You always plan for the worst,” Rafferty says, “and that way when the worst doesn’t happen, you feel you can handle it if and when it does.”
Contributing editor Wayne J. Guglielmo lives in Mahwah, near the Ramapo Fault.

The winds of God’s wrath are now Greek: Jeremiah 23

Alpha and Beta become first Greek letter storms in Atlantic since 2005

WFLA 8 On Your Side Staff

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The hyperactive hurricane season continues with forecasters watching a number of systems in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical Storm Wilfred, Subtropical Storm Alpha and Tropical Storm Beta formed within hours of each other on Friday. Alpha and Beta are the first Atlantic storms named after Greek letters since 2005.

Meanwhile, Teddy remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane while Tropical Depression 22 churns in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the latest on what we’re tracking in the tropics:

Tropical Storm Beta

Tropical Depression 22, which formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night, strengthened to become Tropical Storm Beta on Friday evening.

The slow-moving storm is about 335 miles east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico and 280 miles east-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

Maximum sustained winds increased to 40 mph at 5 p.m. ET Friday. The NHC said additional slow strengthening is expected throughout the weekend. Beta could be near hurricane strength by Sunday.

Beta is creating swells that could impact parts of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, increasing the threat of surf and rip current conditions.

“There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time,” the NHC said Friday evening.

According to forecasters, it’s still too early to determine exactly what areas could see direct impacts from Beta but they are encouraging people along the western Gulf of Mexico to monitor the system. As of Friday, it looks like the Tampa Bay area will not see direct impacts.

Storm surge, tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued as early as Friday night or Saturday.

Subtropical Storm Alpha

The first letter of the Greek alphabet was claimed Friday afternoon when Subtropical Storm Alpha formed near the coast of Portugal. Alpha is small and expected to dissipate by Saturday, but forecasters said it will bring heavy rain and winds to parts of Portugal.

This is only the second time in history a storm in the Atlantic has been named Alpha.

Tropical Storm Wilfred

Tropical Storm Wilfred formed in the eastern tropical Atlantic late Friday morning, claiming the last name on the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season storm names list.

As of 11 a.m. ET, Wilfred is about 630 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

Hurricane Teddy

Teddy is a Category 4 hurricane and is forecast to remain powerful as it moves through the Atlantic over the next few days.

Teddy is creating large swells that are forecast to spread across the western Atlantic, increasing the threat of rip currents in the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America Friday morning. The swells are expected to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda and the east coast of the United States this weekend, forecasters said.

At 5 a.m. ET Friday, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and was about 935 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving northwest at 12 mph.

“Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy,” forecasters said.

Forecasters said some fluctuations in strength are expected over the next day.

Other areas to watch

The NHC is keeping a close eye on other disturbances in the Atlantic Basin Friday morning.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by early Saturday. It has a low 20% chance of development in the next five days.

• Break out the Greek alphabet: Tropical Storm Wilfred claims final name on 2020 hurricane season list

• Alpha and Beta become first Greek letter storms in Atlantic since 2005

• Tracking the Tropics: Teddy becomes major hurricane, reaching Category 3 strength

• Tracking the Tropics: Sally weakens to depression, still soaking Alabama, Georgia with heavy rain

• Tracking the Tropics: Sally starting to bring rain north as ‘catastrophic’ flooding continues on Gulf Coast

The winds of God’s wrath continue to annihilate Babylon the great (Jeremiah 23)

5 p.m. — Teddy strengthens to Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds

The National Hurricane Center wrote Hurricane Teddy’s peak winds had increased 20 mph since the last advisory at 11 a.m., rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph maximum sustained winds. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and the Hurricane Center predicts its winds to peak around 150 mph before likely fluctuations in intensity into the weekend.

Original article from midday

After Hurricane Sally unloaded 20 to 30 inches of rain, unleashing wind gusts over 100 mph and generating a six-foot storm surge along the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast, its remnants are marching through the Southeast, dumping more flooding rain. But, reflecting the breakneck pace of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters are already turning their attention to two more threatening tropical weather systems: Hurricane Teddy and a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that could soon earn the name Wilfred.

There is some chance Teddy could strike Bermuda and then northern New England toward the middle of next week, while the gulf system could be a problem for coastal Texas and the northern Gulf Coast around the same time.

The threat of new storms comes during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record. Twenty named storms have formed and, after the likely Wilfred, forecasters will be forced to draw from the Greek alphabet for naming additional storms. That’s happened only once before, in 2005, the busiest season on record.

Running out of hurricane names, we’ll soon switch to the Greek alphabet. That could present a problem.


Rainfall forecast for Sally’s remnants from the National Weather Service.

Once formidable, Sally was downgraded to a remnant area of low pressure Thursday morning, and the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on the system at 5 a.m.

Centered over Georgia, the former hurricane was picking up speed, heading toward the Carolinas at 12 mph.

Flash-flood watches spanned from northeast Georgia through western South Carolina, much of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, with widespread rainfall of two to four inches predicted with amounts in some places topping six inches. The southern Delmarva Peninsula could also see that much rain. This entire zone was under a slight to moderate risk of flash flooding.

In a special bulletin, the National Weather Service wrote that central South Carolina, in particular, was experiencing heavy rainfall, at rates of one to two inches per hour. “The expected intensity and duration of this rainfall will cause flash flooding, particularly across central SC where the highest amounts are expected through [4 p.m. Thursday],” it wrote. “Some of it could [be] significant on any sensitive or urban locations.”

East of where the center tracks, some tornadoes were possible. A tornado watch was in effect until 6 p.m. in central and eastern South Carolina.

Gusts to 123 mph, 30 inches of rain and a 6-foot storm surge: Hurricane Sally by the numbers

Hurricane Teddy gains ‘major’ status

On Thursday morning, Hurricane Teddy intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane, with peak sustained winds of 120 mph. Positioned 1,155 miles southeast of Bermuda, it was sweeping northwestward at 12 mph. The storm is forecast to intensify further, attaining winds of 130 mph by Thursday night, which would make it a Category 4 storm.

By the weekend and early next week, Teddy is predicted to encounter cooler waters and an increase in hostile high-altitude winds, which would cause it to weaken slightly. Nevertheless, by Monday, when it will be making its closest pass to Bermuda, it is still expected to be a Category 2 hurricane with winds over 100 mph.

“While the exact details of Teddy’s track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing,” the Hurricane Center wrote.

Teddy could be the second hurricane to strike Bermuda in the same week. This past Monday, Hurricane Paulette passed directly over the island.

After Teddy passes Bermuda, some models suggest high pressure over the North Atlantic could force it to make a rare, hard left turn toward Maine or the Canadian Maritimes, while others suggest it will curl away, remaining over the ocean. Any effects to North America are likely at least five or six days away, if this happens. Regardless, the storm is likely to generate large ocean swells and rip currents along the East Coast.

Simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Thursday for Hurricane Teddy’s track. The bold lines represent the average forecast from each simulation group. (StormVistaWxModels)

Teddy is the second major hurricane, rated Category 3 or higher, to form in 2020, following Hurricane Laura.

System forming in the Gulf of Mexico

The Hurricane Center wrote Thursday morning that an area of disturbed weather over the southwest Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized. “Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today,” it wrote.

It is likely this system will become Tropical Storm Wilfred. Through Friday, it is not expected to move much before slowly drifting to the north and northeast over the weekend. By early next week, it could be close to the South Texas coast. Beyond that, computer models project it will continue north and northeastward and may approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Rainfall predicted by European modeling system over the next week in the Gulf of Mexico. (WeatherBell)

It is too soon to predict specifically what land areas this potential storm could brush or strike directly, or its intensity. But, because of its slow movement, it may pose yet another heavy rainfall threat for portions of the western and northern Gulf Coast. And, if it’s able to gain strength, a threat from storm surge and high winds could emerge as well.

Other systems under investigation

In addition to the remnants of Sally, Hurricane Teddy and the gulf system, the Hurricane Center was monitoring three other systems:

• Vicky, a tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic, was forecast to dissipate.

• A disturbance southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 50 percent chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next five days as it heads eastward. It could be 2020′s first storm to be named from the Greek alphabet: Alpha.

• A disturbance in the far northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Azores has been given a 30 percent chance to develop. “The system is expected to reach the coast of Portugal late Friday,” the Hurricane Center wrote.

The winds of God’s wrath takes its toll on the Gulf: Jeremiah 23

Hurricane Sally unleashes “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding along Gulf Coast



Hurricane Sally, which has weakened to a tropical storm, is battering the Gulf Coast at a slow pace and with massive amounts of rain – unleashing “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding along with parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm’s eye crossed over land near Gulf Shores, Alabama, early Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph. As of Wednesday afternoon, the eye was about 30 miles north-northeast of Pensacola, Florida, with winds of 70 mph.

The storm is now creeping north-northeast at 5 mph, maintaining an excruciatingly slow pace, which means it could produce nearly three feet of rain in some areas and storm surges as high as seven feet. Rainfall is already being measured in feet – not inches – and tornadoes remain a possibility in Florida, Alabama and Georgia.

Trent Airhart wades through flood waters on September 16, 2020, in downtown Pensacola, Florida. Gerald Herbert/AP

The wind of God’s wrath starts lashing Gulf Coast (Jeremiah 23)

Hurricane Sally starts lashing Gulf Coast as it churns at sluggish pace



Hurricane Sally is moving toward the Gulf Coast, threatening to bring possible historic flooding and “extreme life-threatening” flash flooding, according to forecasters. The eye of the storm is expected to pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday before making landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning in the hurricane warning area, which stretches from east of Bay St. Louis – a city in Mississippi – to Navarre, Florida.

As of Tuesday morning, the storm was located about 55 miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 110 miles south of Mobile, Alabama. Maximum sustained winds were 85 mph, with stronger gusts. It was moving northwest at 2 mph.

Hurricane Sally churns in the Gulf of Mexico in this satellite image released by NOAA, September 15, 2020.


The Winds of God’s Wrath Hit Louisiana: Jeremiah 23

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Laura-and-Sally.jpg

LIVE: Sally rapidly strengthens into a Category 2 hurricane

After already bringing widespread flooding to southern Florida over the weekend, Sally now has the Northern Gulf Coast in its sights, and has become the seventh hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

Updated 09/14 at 4:18 PM MDT

AccuWeather meteorologists provide update on Sally of 02:26Volume 0%

The northern Gulf Coast will be at risk for life-threatening storm surge and potent winds as slow-moving Sally moves ashore early this week.


Storm surge already inundating Gulf Coast

Brian Lada, AccuWeather staff writer

The center of Hurricane Sally is still more than 100 miles off the Gulf Coast, but storm surge is already causing flooding along the shores of Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and LouisianaDrone footage from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi shows some streets already underwater despite some blue skies. Some areas could remain underwater for an extended period of time as storm surge continues and heavy, flooding rainfall moves inland. Click here to watch a video of the flooding as seen from the air.

Sally upgraded to Category 2 hurricane

Brian Lada, AccuWeather staff writer

Hurricane Sally continues to strengthen and is now a Category 2 storm. “Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts,” the National Hurricane Center stated in an update late Monday afternoon. To be a Category 2 storm, maximum sustained winds must be 96 to 110 mph. With Sally still strengthening, there is a chance that it could become a Category 3 before landfall, which is the threshold to be considered a major hurricane.2 hrs agoCopied

Hurricane Sally nearly as large as Hurricane Laura

Brian Lada, AccuWeather staff writer

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Sally strengthens as it tracks toward the Gulf Coast, but how does it stack up against Hurricane Laura, which slammed Louisiana in late August? On satellite, the two hurricanes appear to be around the same size, both about 500 to 600 miles wide. However, Laura was significantly stronger. The devastating storm made landfall when it was at peak intensity with winds of 150 mph, just 7 mph shy of being classified as a Category 5 hurricane. Sally is currently a Category 1 storm with maximum winds of 90 mph but is projected to strengthen into a Category 2 or possibly even a Category 3 storm before making landfall early Tuesday. Even though Sally is not as strong as Laura was, people should still prepare for the hurricane as it can unload flooding rain and life-threatening storm surge.

The image below is a composite of the two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico with Hurricane Laura on the left, as seen on Aug. 26, and Hurricane Sally on the right, as seen on Sept. 14. 

This image is a composite of two satellite images taken by NOAA’s GOES-East weather satellite; one image from Aug. 26, 2020 showing Hurricane Laura (left) and one image from Sept. 14, 2020 showing Hurricane Sally (right).3 hrs agoCopied

Alabama Governor closes beaches, recommends evacuations ahead of Hurricane Sally

Chaffin Mitchell, AccuWeather staff writer

All Alabama beaches will be closed starting at 3:00 p.m. local time on Monday, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey announced after she declared a state of emergency for Sally. Gov. Ivey also recommends evacuations of flood-prone areas south of Interstate 10. The evacuation recommendation applies to people who live in low-lying and flood-prone areas and those in mobile homes and manufactured homes. “As the recently upgraded Hurricane Sally continues heading closer to the Gulf Coast, we must give individuals time to prepare for the anticipated impacts of this storm,” Ivey said. “Alabamians are no stranger to tropical weather and the significant damage these storms can do, even though our state is not currently in the direct line of impact. Locals will need to prepare their homes, businesses and personal property for imminent storm surge, heavy rain and flash flooding. I urge everyone to tune in to their trusted weather source, and pay attention to your local officials for updates regarding your area as they make further recommendations based off the unique needs of your community.”4 hrs agoCopied

Sally may approach major hurricane strength

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Hurricane Sally continues to strengthen over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and AccuWeather meteorologists now say it could flirt with major hurricane status. As of 2 p.m. EDT, the storm’s winds have increased to 90 mph, just six mph below Category 2 strength. The storm is now expected to reach Category 2 strength today and there is a chance the hurricane could hit the Gulf Coast at near major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher) with winds of at least 111 mph. Sally is ‘meandering” over the north-central Gulf, the NHC said and is about 160 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi.

5 hrs agoCopied

Sally will trigger serious inland flooding

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

AccuWeather meteorologists say slow-moving Hurricane Sally could trigger serious flooding damage even as it weakens over land as the week progresses. While a repeat of the historic flooding from Hurricane Harvey in August 2017 is not anticipated, Sally’s flooding could still prove disastrous, with up two 2 feet of rain forecast for some areas. Harvey dropped more than 60 inches of rain over southeastern Texas rain over several days.

“A large swath of 4- to 8-inch rainfall is forecast from the central Gulf coast to the southern Appalachians, but an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 24 inches is forecast in parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southeastern Louisiana and the western part of the Florida Panhandle as Sally crawls along,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

6 hrs agoCopied

Sally rapidly strengthens into a Category 1 hurricane

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Sally rapidly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane right around 12 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center said. Sally has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and is located about 175 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi. Sally is now the seventh hurricane of the 2020 season joining Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Marco, Nana and Paulette.7 hrs agoCopied

Hurricane warning issued for coast of Alabama

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

The tropical storm warning and hurricane watch from the Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border has been changed to a hurricane warning, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. EDT update. Sally, still a tropical storm, is about 140 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 185 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi.

7 hrs agoCopied

Sally has company in hyperactive Atlantic basin

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Tropical Storm Vicky formed Monday morning in the far eastern Atlantic, about 350 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Vicky is the second tropical storm to form on Monday after Teddy did so during the early morning hours. Unlike Teddy, which is currently forecast to become a major hurricane later this week, Vicky is expected to be short-lived and not reach hurricane strength. The image below captures the jam-packed Atlantic basin and the current location of all the named systems. In addition to the named storms, forecasters are also keeping a close eye on a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which currently has a low chance of development.

With the exclusion of Rene, which is a depression, the last time there were four named storms simultaneously in the Atlantic was in 2018, according to Colorado State University Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. From Sept. 12-14, 2018, Florence, Helene, Isaac and Joyce were all active systems, Klotzbach noted on Twitter.

8 hrs agoCopied

Reed Timmer outlines Sally’s life-threatening risks

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Extreme meteorologist Reed Timmer was in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Monday morning, a costal city that was devastated by Hurricane Katrina 15 years ago. Timmer reported that minor coastal flooding was already occurring in the city ahead of Sally, which was still over 100 miles away in the Gulf of Mexico. Timmer also noted that many residents have evacuated the area. A storm surge of 6-10 feet is forecast for  Bay St. Louis, which is about 60 miles northeast of New Orleans. Hear more from Timmer in the video below. 

Homes boarded up, boats moved as Sally closes in on Gulf Coast

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Preparations are being rushed to completion in areas from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle ahead of Tropical Storm Sally, which forecasters expect to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall. Homes were seen boarded up in Hancock County, Mississippi, on Sunday, and evacuations have been ordered for residents who live in low-lying areas. Hancock County is located along the Louisiana-Mississippi border. Elsewhere in Mississippi, boaters scrambled to pull their boats from the water to store them safely inland on higher ground.

A house is boarded up in Hancock County, Mississippi. (ABC News)10 hrs agoCopied

Sally getting closer to hurricane status

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Sally is growing stronger as its maximum sustained winds are now up to 65 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory. The storm is located about 115 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 165 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi. Sally is moving to the west-northwest at a speed of 8 mph. Sally will become a Category 1 hurricane when its maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph.

Tropical Storm Sally grows stronger near the Gulf Coast early Monday, Sept. 14, 2020. (CIRA RAMMB)11 hrs agoCopied

Sally a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Sally is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates hurricanes based on their sustained wind speed. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say Sally’s impacts will go beyond damaging winds and are notably concerned about life-threatening flooding that the storm could produce. Because of the wind and rain impacts combined, Sally has been rated a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 6-point scale with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5 that was introduced by AccuWeather in 2019 to rate tropical systems based on multiple impacts, rather than just wind, like the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale does.

11 hrs agoCopied

Sally’s outer bands lashing northern Gulf Coast

Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Sally’s outer bands are already lashing parts of the northern Gulf Coast and conditions are expected to deteriorate by late Monday as the storm produces a life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds and flash flooding.

State of emergency declarations have already been issued by Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves ahead of Sally’s arrival. “This when combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, can make us all weary,” Edwards said on Twitter. “I implore Louisianans to take their preparations seriously.”

Tropical Storm Sally seen on radar in the Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning, Sept. 14, 2020.12 hrs agoCopied

Tropical Storm Sally expected to become hurricane on Monday

Mark Puleo

Hurricane experts expect Tropical Storm Sally to become a Category 1 hurricane by Monday afternoon ahead of its expected Tuesday landfall. As of 5 a.m. EDT Monday morning, the storm system was located 120 miles east-southeast of the mouth of Mississippi River and moving west-northwestward at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

As of 5 a.m. Monday morning Sally is located 120 miles east-southeast of the mouth of Mississippi River and moving west-northwestward at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. (Satellite image via NOAA GOES)

New Orleans to receive the winds of God‘s wrath Jeremiah 23

Tropical Storm Sally expected to make landfall as a hurricane near New Orleans – CNN

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Sally could be a Category 2 hurricane when it reaches the United States near New Orleans on Tuesday morning.

Hurricane warnings have now been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, east to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Sally continues to strengthen across the Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds of 60 mph.

Storm surges of up to 7 to 11 feet are possible near the center of the storm and just east of where landfall is expected. Along with storm surge, extreme rainfall amounts of over a foot are expected in some locations between southeast Louisiana and the western Florida panhandle.

Tropical Storm Sally is the 18th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the earliest 18th-named storm on record. On Saturday, the storm brought heavy rain and gusty winds to south Florida as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency Saturday evening ahead of Sally’s arrival, and on Sunday, he said he had spoken with President Donald Trump and will submit a pre-landfall federal declaration request.

“While we ultimately don’t know where Sally will make landfall, much of Southeast Louisiana is in the storm’s cone and the risk of tropical storm force or hurricane strength winds continues to increase. This storm has the potential to be very serious,” Edwards said in a news release.

We “have every reason to believe that this storm represents a very significant threat to the people of Southeast Louisiana,” Edwards said at a press conference Sunday.

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves signed a preliminary state of emergency for the state, he said Sunday, and has also sent a request to the President “to provide the necessary guidance” for pre-landfall activity, saying he expected to the storm to “persist over most portions of the state for basically 48 hours.”

In New Orleans, Mayor LaToya Cantrell issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents outside of the city’s levee protection system. The evacuation will begin Sunday at 6 p.m. for the areas of Venetian Isles, Irish Bayou and Lake Catherine.

Cantrell said Sunday that sandbags were available throughout the city and that water pumps are in place and operational.

In coastal Louisiana, Grand Isle and St. Charles Parish are under mandatory evacuation declarations, and a recommended evacuation notice went out to the community of Port Fourchon.

“We want residents to heed our warnings and make preparations to leave now,” St. Charles Parish President Matthew Jewell said on the official Facebook page of St. Charles Parish.

Three jails with 1,200 inmates in total have been evacuated, Edwards said Sunday, and at least one nursing home is evacuating.

Gulf Coast expecting 6 to 12 inches of rain

Flash flood watches are in effect along the Gulf Coast across much of southern Louisiana, east to the Florida Panhandle, and along the western Florida peninsula. These watches include the city of New Orleans, Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama, and Panama City and Tampa, Florida.

Sally is expected to slow in speed as it approaches the Gulf Coast which will result in significant flash flooding across the region. Widespread rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches is expected along the Gulf Coast through Wednesday, but isolated rainfall of up to 20 inches is not out of the question.

The combination of extreme rainfall and the high storm surge will bring widespread flooding to much of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday and lasting at least through Wednesday.

Most forecast models have Sally moving toward the northern Gulf Coast and likely making landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Panama City by late Monday or Tuesday. However, if the track shifts farther west or slows down, landfall may hold off until Wednesday.

“The cyclone will likely become a hurricane in 2 to 3 days, although an increase in vertical shear could slow the rate of intensification over the northern Gulf of Mexico,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

Once it reaches that area of the Gulf Coast the steering patterns break down and the system meanders near the coast.

Whether the meandering is offshore prior to a landfall or onshore will not make much of a difference in terms of rainfall. In either case, because of the slow forward movement along the Gulf Coast significant flooding is possible.

Active hurricane season stays busy

Another system, Tropical Depression Twenty, formed in the central tropical Atlantic on Saturday, according to the NHC. Twenty has sustained winds of 35 mph.

Twenty is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday evening and a hurricane by Tuesday, and if so, will be named Teddy. The previous record for the earliest 19th named storm is October 4, 2005.

Tropical Storm Sally forms in the Gulf of Mexico

So far this season, there have been 18 named storms. The average for an entire season is 12. Early in the season, forecasters called for a very active season.

Many storms broke records for being the earliest named to date. All but three named storms (Arthur, Bertha and Dolly) set records for being the earliest named storm for their respective letter. After Sally, there are only three names left on this year’s official list: Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. After that, the NHC will move on to using the Greek alphabet.

Sally is just one of several systems in the Atlantic. The NHC is currently watching seven areas: one hurricane, one tropical storm, two tropical depressions and three tropical disturbances. Thursday marked the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Paulette is forecast to track toward Bermuda and potentially make landfall early Monday morning as a category 2 storm. A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda and hurricane conditions are expected tonight.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced they are issuing a La Niña Advisory, meaning La Niña conditions are present in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

In a typical El Niño phase, much of the Pacific Ocean is characterized by warmer waters, whereas La Niña features a cooling of those same Pacific waters. In the case of hurricanes, La Niña weakens high atmospheric winds, which allows warm air pockets to grow vertically and develop into hurricanes.

Seven Winds of God’s Wrath (Jeremiah 23)

Hurricane season peaks today, and the Hurricane Center is watching 7 systems

By Allison Chinchar, CNN Meteorologist

Updated 1:13 PM ET, Thu September 10, 2020

(CNN)Atlantic hurricane season statistically peaks on September 10, and today seven systems are actively being watched.Two of them are named Paulette and Rene, and both are currently located over the central Atlantic Ocean.The other five are what we refer to as tropical waves or disturbances. Storm systems that aren’t yet tropical storms but have the potential to become storms within the next five days. Three of these systems are near the US.

The first, a low pressure located just off the coast of North Carolina, is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.Content by CNN UnderscoredLearn a new language for less with these Rosetta Stone dealsRosetta Stone has deals on one-year, two-year and even lifetime subscriptions so you can pick up a new language or two.”This system is expected to move inland over eastern North Carolina this afternoon, and therefore significant development is not expected,” the National Hurricane Center says on its website.The second system is currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is a very weak cluster of storms right now but may potentially strengthen as it moves into the western Gulf over the next several days.The third system is currently a large group of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the Central Bahamas. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing both the Bahamas and Florida by this weekend. Once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico early next week, it will have to potential to strengthen.The system to really watch for is a new tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa, producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to intensify over the next few days, and has a 90% chance of becoming a named system in the next five days as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic Ocean.

La Niña is officially here

Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced they are issuing a La Niña Advisory, which simply means that La Niña conditions are present in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.”The likelihood of La Niña forming was factored into NOAA’s record outlook for the 2020 hurricane season being “extremely active,” as La Niña weakens winds between the ocean surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere, which allows hurricanes to more easily grow,” Brandon Miller, CNN meteorologist points out isn’t just the presences of La Niña that is important, but also the lack of El Niño that influences the latter months of Atlantic hurricane season.”Typically, what ends Atlantic hurricane seasons is that vertical wind shear gets too strong,” says Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University. “So, El Niño, via its impacts on vertical wind shear, has a stronger impact on September and especially October hurricanes than it does on August hurricanes. With La Niña, vertical wind shear tends to be lower, and consequently, we end up with more active late seasons.

Already a record start to the season

So far this season, we have seen 17 named storms. The average for an entire season is 12. Obviously, we are above that number, as we were supposed to be. Early in the season, forecasters called for a very active season. Additionally, many storms broke records for being the earliest named storm. For example, Cristobal was the earliest named “C” letter storm in recorded history. Hanna was the earliest “H” letter storm. All but three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Dolly) set records for being the earliest named storm for their respective letter. Despite the record pace and nearly three times the number of named storms that we should have by September 10th, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is right on average,” explains Taylor Ward, CNN meteorologist.ACE is a measurement of the tropical cyclone activity for a season. It takes into account multiple factors, not just that it is a named storm. Other components such as the duration and intensity of a storm also factor in.”This speaks to the number of storms that have been weak and short-lived. Even looking at the five hurricanes we have had this year, only Laura was stronger than Category 1, three of the five were a hurricane for less than a day, and none were a hurricane for longer than 2 days,” says Ward.However, one thing to note is that ACE does not take into account whether a storm makes landfall or not. In theory, you could have a large buildup of ACE without ever having a storm make landfall in the US. This is important because we all know that it only takes one big storm to make landfall in the US to have widespread impacts. Case in point, by the end of August we had seven, yes seven, landfalling storms in the continental US. That was a record. The previous record was six landfalls set back in 1886 and 1916.

Another Hurricane Of God’s Wrath (Jeremiah 23)

Tropical Storm Rene forecast to become hurricane, Paulette may near Bermuda

The two current tropical systems are not forecast to impact the US

By Travis Fedschun, Janice Dean | Fox News

The latest named tropical system over the Atlantic Ocean restrengthened on Wednesday to a tropical storm and is expected to become a hurricane later this week, according to forecasters.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said that Rene is now a tropical storm again, after bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands.

“Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,” the NHC said.


As of 11 a.m. EDT, the storm was located about 510 miles west-northwest of the islands, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph as it moves west-northwest at 13 mph.

Tropical Storms Paulette (left) and Rene (right) are seen over the Atlantic on Sept. 9, 2020. (NOAA/GOES-East)

Rene is expected to become a hurricane this week but then weaken over the open waters of the Atlantic, according to the NHC.

Bermuda may need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Paulette, the second system currently in the Atlantic.

The NHC’s advisory at 11 a.m. EDT had the storm with 60 mph winds and located about 1,090 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 9 mph.

The forecast tracks of Paulette and Rene. (Fox News)

The storm is forecast to continue moving northwest through Friday night and Saturday.

“Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,” the NHC said.


Bermuda needs to monitor Paulette early next week for possible impacts, but for now Paulette isn’t expected to strengthen significantly through the weekend. The storm is expected to generate rough surf that will reach the Greater Antilles, Bahamas and Bermuda into the weekend.

Forecast models for Paulette and Rene. Bermuda may need to keep an eye if Paulette draws closer. (Fox News)

Neither of these storms will have a direct impact on the U.S.

Another tropical disturbance southwest of Bermuda has a slight chance of gaining some tropical organization as it approaches the Carolinas by Friday. As of Wednesday, it’s not a major concern, as environmental conditions are marginal at best.

A system is moving off Africa in the next couple of days and has the potential to become a tropical depression by the weekend.

Rene was one of two storms that formed Monday; Tropical Storm Paulette took shape earlier in the day in the central Atlantic, far from land.

Historically, September produces the most Atlantic Ocean basin tropical activity. The two current tropical storms are the earliest 16th and 17th named storms, continuing a trend during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.


The two previous storms, Nana and Omar, were the earliest 14th and 15th named storms on record.

Hurricane season peaks on Sept. 10, and then starts to decrease. (Fox News)

Tropical activity historically climbs through Sept. 10, when it peaks and starts to slowly go back down.

The patterns during the peak of hurricane season that influence where storms travel. (Fox News)

NOAA forecasters are now calling for up to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher; of those, seven to 10 could become hurricanes. Among those hurricanes, three to six will be major, classified as Category 3, 4 and 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.

The names of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. (Fox News)

That’s far above an average year. Based on 1981-to-2010 data, that is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. So far this year, there have been 17 named storms, including five hurricanes.


The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and includes the names Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.

Fox News’ Adam Klotz and Brandon Noriega contributed to this report.