The science behind the sixth seal: Revelation 6:12

The science behind the earthquake that shook Southern New England

Did you feel it? At 9:10 am EST Sunday morning, a Magnitude 3.6 earthquake struck just south of Bliss Corner, Massachusetts, which is a census-designated place in Dartmouth. If you felt it, report it!

While minor earthquakes do happen from time to time in New England, tremors that are felt by a large number of people and that cause damage are rare.

Earthquake Report

The earthquake was originally measured as a magnitude 4.2 on the Richter scale by the United States Geological Surgey (USGS) before changing to a 3.6.

Earthquakes in New England and most places east of the Rocky Mountains are much different than the ones that occur along well-known fault lines in California and along the West Coast.

Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts fall nearly in the center of the North American Plate, one of 15 (seven primary, eight secondary) that cover the Earth.

Earth’s tectonic plates

Tectonic plates move ever-so-slowly, and as they either push into each other, pull apart, or slide side-by-side, earthquakes are possible within the bedrock, usually miles deep.

Most of New England’s and Long Island’s bedrock was assembled as continents collided to form a supercontinent 500-300 million years ago, raising the northern Appalachian Mountains.

Plate tectonics (Courtesy: Encyclopaedia Britannica)

Fault lines left over from the creation of the Appalachian Mountains can still lead to earthquakes locally, and many faults remain undetected. According to the USGS, few, if any, earthquakes in New England can be linked to named faults.

While earthquakes in New England are generally much weaker compared to those on defined fault lines, their reach is still impressive. Sunday’s 3.6 was felt in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and New Hampshire.

USGS Community Internet Intensity Map

While M 3.6 earthquakes rarely cause damage, some minor cracks were reported on social media from the shaking.

According to the USGS, moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt roughly twice a year.

The largest known New England earthquakes occurred in 1638 (magnitude 6.5) in Vermont or New Hampshire, and in 1755 (magnitude 5.8) offshore from Cape Ann northeast of Boston.

The most recent New England earthquake to cause moderate damage occurred in 1940 (magnitude 5.6) in central New Hampshire.

The science behind the sixth seal: Revelation 6:12

The science behind the earthquake that shook Southern New England

Did you feel it? At 9:10 am EST Sunday morning, a Magnitude 3.6 earthquake struck just south of Bliss Corner, Massachusetts, which is a census-designated place in Dartmouth. If you felt it, report it!

While minor earthquakes do happen from time to time in New England, tremors that are felt by a large number of people and that cause damage are rare.

Earthquake Report

The earthquake was originally measured as a magnitude 4.2 on the Richter scale by the United States Geological Surgey (USGS) before changing to a 3.6.

Earthquakes in New England and most places east of the Rocky Mountains are much different than the ones that occur along well-known fault lines in California and along the West Coast.

Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts fall nearly in the center of the North American Plate, one of 15 (seven primary, eight secondary) that cover the Earth.

Earth’s tectonic plates

Tectonic plates move ever-so-slowly, and as they either push into each other, pull apart, or slide side-by-side, earthquakes are possible within the bedrock, usually miles deep.

Most of New England’s and Long Island’s bedrock was assembled as continents collided to form a supercontinent 500-300 million years ago, raising the northern Appalachian Mountains.

Plate tectonics (Courtesy: Encyclopaedia Britannica)

Fault lines left over from the creation of the Appalachian Mountains can still lead to earthquakes locally, and many faults remain undetected. According to the USGS, few, if any, earthquakes in New England can be linked to named faults.

While earthquakes in New England are generally much weaker compared to those on defined fault lines, their reach is still impressive. Sunday’s 3.6 was felt in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and New Hampshire.

USGS Community Internet Intensity Map

While M 3.6 earthquakes rarely cause damage, some minor cracks were reported on social media from the shaking.

According to the USGS, moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt roughly twice a year.

The largest known New England earthquakes occurred in 1638 (magnitude 6.5) in Vermont or New Hampshire, and in 1755 (magnitude 5.8) offshore from Cape Ann northeast of Boston.

The most recent New England earthquake to cause moderate damage occurred in 1940 (magnitude 5.6) in central New Hampshire.

New York Earthquake: City of the Sixth Seal (Revelation 6:12)

New York earthquake: City at risk of ‚dangerous shaking from far away‘
Joshua Nevett
Published 30th April 2018
SOME of New York City’s tallest skyscrapers are at risk of being shaken by seismic waves triggered by powerful earthquakes from miles outside the city, a natural disaster expert has warned.
Researchers believe that a powerful earthquake, magnitude 5 or greater, could cause significant damage to large swathes of NYC, a densely populated area dominated by tall buildings.
A series of large fault lines that run underneath NYC’s five boroughs, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, The Bronx and Staten Island, are capable of triggering large earthquakes.
Some experts have suggested that NYC is susceptible to at least a magnitude 5 earthquake once every 100 years.
The last major earthquake measuring over magnitude 5.0 struck NYC in 1884 – meaning another one of equal size is “overdue” by 34 years, according their prediction model.
Natural disaster researcher Simon Day, of University College London, agrees with the conclusion that NYC may be more at risk from earthquakes than is usually thought.
EARTHQUAKE RISK: New York is susceptible to seismic shaking from far-away tremors
But the idea of NYC being “overdue” for an earthquake is “invalid”, not least because the “very large number of faults” in the city have individually low rates of activity, he said.
The model that predicts strong earthquakes based on timescale and stress build-up on a given fault has been “discredited”, he said.
What scientists should be focusing on, he said, is the threat of large and potentially destructive earthquakes from “much greater distances”.
The dangerous effects of powerful earthquakes from further away should be an “important feature” of any seismic risk assessment of NYC, Dr Day said.

GETTY
THE BIG APPLE: An aerial view of Lower Manhattan at dusk in New York City

USGS
RISK: A seismic hazard map of New York produced by USGS
“New York is susceptible to seismic shaking from earthquakes at much greater distances” Dr Simon Day, natural disaster researcher
This is because the bedrock underneath parts of NYC, including Long Island and Staten Island, cannot effectively absorb the seismic waves produced by earthquakes.
“An important feature of the central and eastern United States is, because the crust there is old and cold, and contains few recent fractures that can absorb seismic waves, the rate of seismic reduction is low.
Central regions of NYC, including Manhattan, are built upon solid granite bedrock; therefore the amplification of seismic waves that can shake buildings is low.
But more peripheral areas, such as Staten Island and Long Island, are formed by weak sediments, meaning seismic hazard in these areas is “very likely to be higher”, Dr Day said.
“Thus, like other cities in the eastern US, New York is susceptible to seismic shaking from earthquakes at much greater distances than is the case for cities on plate boundaries such as Tokyo or San Francisco, where the crustal rocks are more fractured and absorb seismic waves more efficiently over long distances,” Dr Day said.
In the event of a large earthquake, dozens of skyscrapers, including Chrysler Building, the Woolworth Building and 40 Wall Street, could be at risk of shaking.
“The felt shaking in New York from the Virginia earthquake in 2011 is one example,” Dr Day said.
On that occasion, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake centered 340 miles south of New York sent thousands of people running out of swaying office buildings.

USGS
FISSURES: Fault lines in New York City have low rates of activity, Dr Day said
NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the city was “lucky to avoid any major harm” as a result of the quake, whose epicenter was near Louisa, Virginia, about 40 miles from Richmond.
“But an even more impressive one is the felt shaking from the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes in the central Mississippi valley, which was felt in many places across a region, including cities as far apart as Detroit, Washington DC and New Orleans, and in a few places even further afield including,” Dr Day added.
“So, if one was to attempt to do a proper seismic hazard assessment for NYC, one would have to include potential earthquake sources over a wide region, including at least the Appalachian mountains to the southwest and the St Lawrence valley to the north and east.”

2020 was the winds of God’s wrath: Jeremiah 23

2020’s hurricane season was the Atlantic’s worst: See all 30 storms

Mary-Anne Desai December 7, 2020

Over thirty hurricanes and deadly tropical storms have ravaged the Atlantic in 2020. These devastating storms have destroyed our homes, local businesses, and schools. We are looking back at all the natural disasters that hit the American continent this year.

America is not overlooked when it comes to scary hurricanes or tropical storms. The nation reached a record high with the amount of disasters during this hurricane season. Buzzfeed News declares these storms have “killed dozens and left thousands homeless” before the COVID-19 pandemic started.

Scientists believe even more hurricanes & severe storms could have occurred this season without detection. Buzzfeed News reported a senior staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Michael Wehner believes “the great unknown question is how climate change impacts the number of hurricanes” as their data is definitely limited.

Satellites can’t pick up every sign of a storm and with constant changes in the Earth’s atmosphere, there’s a higher chance many disasters will arise at the height of hurricane season. Michael Wehner stated, “If the conditions are perfect for a hurricane, all else equal except more energy is available, they are going to be more intense”.

Tropical Storms

Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Arthur

Arthur was recorded as the first storm of the 2020 hurricane season and occurred between May 16th and 19th. The storm impacted three major locations, Cuba, Florida, and North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha was one of the quicker storms, only impacting South Carolina for a brief spell during hurricane season. The tropical storm caused landfalls and flooding along the city’s coast between May 27th and May 28th.

Tropical Storm Cristobal

The Cristobal Storm first hit along the Pacific coast of Guatemala in Central America and then crashed into Louisiana. The storm occurred from June 1st to June 9th.

Tropical Storm Dolly

Another quick storm, Dolly only spent time in the Atlantic Ocean between June 22nd and June 24th.

Tropical Storm Edouard

Flash storm Edouard never made any landfalls and survived between July 4th and July 6th.

Tropical Storm Fay

Storm Fay introduced a couple of thunderstorms in New Jersey. This included a dense amount of rain and a massive landfall between July 9th and July 11th.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Gonzalo was a swift storm that happened in Trinidad and Tobago between July 21st and July 25th.

Tropical Storm Josephine

Josephine was luckily recorded as the storm that never touched land on August 11th to August 16th.

Tropical Storm Kyle

Kyle was an Atlantic ocean-based storm between August 14th and August 16th.

Tropical Storm Omar

Storm Omar left no physical damage done. The storm did not hit land and occurred on August 31st to September 5th.

Tropical Storm Rene

Rene may have happened during high season, an alarming time for storms, but it fortunately never touched land. The storm took place on September 7th to September 14th.

Tropical Storm Vicky

Tropical Storm Vicky did not cause much harm because it occurred within the bound of the Atlantic ocean between September 14th and September 17th.

Tropical Storm Beta

Beta the tropical storm hit Texas and made a major landfall in the United States of America. Beta created heavy rain between September 17th and September 22nd.

Tropical Storm Wilfred

Buzzfeed News reported Wilfred was the final storm to have a “traditional name”. The storm came from West Africa and luckily landed in the Central Atlantic Ocean on September 18th to September 20th.

Subtropical Storm Alpha

Alpha hit the Atlantic ocean on September 18th , 2020. Reuters stated the storm was short-lived and came off the coast of Portugal.

Tropical Storm Gamma

Gamma created a landfall on Mexico’s Yucatàn Peninsula and took place during October 2nd and October 5th.

Tropical Storm Theta

Theta was the final tropical storm to occur in 2020 between November 10th and November 15th.

Hurricanes

Hurricane Hanna

Hurricane Hanna was the first hurricane of hurricane season to kick off the chain of storms flooding in. Hanna started in South Texas and was labelled a Category 1 storm, occurring between July 23rd and July 27th.

Hurricane Isaias

Hurricane Isaias occurred on July 30th to August 5th. The hurricane caused many tornadoes and dense rainfall on the East Coast of America.

Hurricane Laura

According to UN News, Hurricane Laura was the “most dangerous hurricane” this year, moving from a Category 1 to a Category 4 within one day. Laura ravaged from August 20th to August 28th.

Hurricane Marco

Marco occurred between August 20th and August 25th. The hurricane started in the Gulf of Mexico and ended near the Mississippi River in the United States of America.

Hurricane Nana

Hurricane Nana was a Category 1 storm located within Central America. The storm entered the Caribbean country, Belize between September 1st and September 4th.

Hurricane Paulette

Paulette was a Category 2 hurricane and is believed to have become a tropical storm days after it disappeared. The hurricane started on September 7th to September 22nd.

Hurricane Sally

Hurricane Sally started in Florida as a Category 2 storm between September 11th and September 17th.

Hurricane Teddy

On September 12th to September 22nd, Teddy was labelled as a Category 4 hurricane and eventually traveled along the Atlantic, hitting Canada.

Hurricane Delta

Delta occurred across Louisiana and was labelled as a Category 2 storm on October 4th to October 10th.

Hurricane Eta

Eta was one of the longest hurricanes in hurricane season, happening between October 31st and November 13th. It started in Nicaragua and hit most of Central America including Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane ended outside Florida.

Hurricane Iota

To end hurricane season, Iota was the last recorded hurricane of 2020 and labelled as a Category 4 storm which started in Nicaragua and ended near Guatemala. BBC News called Hurricane Iota “the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the year”.

These tropical storms and hurricanes made history with thirty devastating floods and heavy rainfalls. Many homes were lost and hundreds of lives were taken by these natural disasters in 2020.

The Ramapo Fault and the Sixth Seal (Revelation 6:12)

New York,Earthquake,Sixth Seal,revelation 6,ndrew the prophet,nyc,andrewtheprophet,


Living on the Fault Line
A major earthquake isn’t likely here, but if it comes, watch out.
Posted June 15, 2010 by Wayne J. Guglielmo
This chart shows the location of the Ramapo Fault System, the longest and one of the oldest systems of cracks in the earth’s crust in the Northeast. It also shows the location of all earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater in New Jersey during the last 50 years. The circle in blue indicates the largest known Jersey quake.
The couple checked with Burns’s parents, who live in nearby Basking Ridge, and they, too, had heard and felt something, which they thought might have been an earthquake. A call by Burns some 20 minutes later to the Bernardsville Police Department—one of many curious and occasionally panicky inquiries that Sunday morning, according to the officer in charge, Sergeant John Remian—confirmed their suspicion: A magnitude 2.6 earthquake, its epicenter in Peapack/Gladstone, about seven miles from Bernardsville, had hit the area. A smaller aftershock followed about two and a half hours later.
After this year’s epic earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Mexico, Indonesia, and China, the 2.6 quake and aftershock that shook parts of New Jersey in February may seem minor league, even to the Somerset County residents who experienced them. On the exponential Richter Scale, a magnitude 7.0 quake like the one that hit Haiti in January is almost 4 million times stronger than a quake of 2.6 magnitude. But comparisons of magnitude don’t tell the whole story.
Northern New Jersey straddles the Ramapo Fault, a significant ancient crack in the earth’s crust. The longest fault in the Northeast, it begins in Pennsylvania and moves into New Jersey, trending northeast through Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Passaic, and Bergen counties before terminating in New York’s Westchester County, not far from the Indian Point Energy Center, a nuclear power plant. And though scientists dispute how active this roughly 200 million-year-old fault really is, many earthquakes in the state’s surprisingly varied seismic history are believed to have occurred on or near it. The fault line is visible at ground level and likely extends as deep as nine miles below the surface.
During the past 230 years or so, New Jersey has been at the epicenter of nearly 170 earthquakes, according to data compiled by the New Jersey Geological Survey, part of the United States Department of Environmental Protection. The largest known quake struck in 1783, somewhere west of New York City, perhaps in Sussex County. It’s typically listed as 5.3 in magnitude, though that’s an estimate by seismologists who are quick to point out that the concept of magnitude—measuring the relative size of an earthquake—was not introduced until 1935 by Charles Richter and Beno Gutenberg. Still, for quakes prior to that, scientists are not just guessing.
“We can figure out the damage at the time by going back to old records and newspaper accounts,” says Won-Young Kim, a senior research scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, directly across the New Jersey border. “Once the amount and extent of contemporary damage has been established,” Kim says, “we’re then able to gauge the pattern of ground shaking or intensity of the event—and from there extrapolate its probable magnitude.”
Other earthquakes of magnitude 5 or higher have been felt in New Jersey, although their epicenters laying near New York City. One—which took place in 1737 and was said to have been felt as far north as Boston and as far south as northern Delaware—was probably in the 5 to 5.5 range. In 1884, an earthquake of similar magnitude occurred off New York’s Rockaway Beach. This well-documented event pulled houses off their foundations and caused steeples to topple as far west as Rahway. The shock wave, scientists believe, was felt over 70,000 square miles, from Vermont to Maryland.
Among the largest sub-5 magnitude earthquakes with epicenters in New Jersey, two (a 3.8 and a 4.0) took place on the same day in 1938 in the Lakehurst area in Ocean County. On August 26, 2003, a 3.5 magnitude quake shook the Frenchtown/Milford area in Hunterdon County. On February 3 of last year, a 3.0 magnitude quake occurred in the Morris County town of Mendham. “A lot of people felt this one because of the intense shaking, although the area of intensity wasn’t very wide,” says Lamont-Doherty’s Kim, who visited the site after the event.
After examining the known historical and geological record, Kim and other seismologists have found no clear evidence that an earthquake of greater than 5.3 to 5.5 magnitude has taken place in this area going back to 1737. This doesn’t mean, of course, that one did not take place in the more remote past or that one will not occur in the future; it simply means that a very large quake is less likely to occur here than in other places in the east where the seismic hazard is greater, including areas in South Carolina and northeastern New York State.
But no area on the East Coast is as densely populated or as heavily built-up as parts of New Jersey and its neighbors. For this reason, scientists refer to the Greater New York City-Philadelphia area, which includes New Jersey’s biggest cities, as one of “low earthquake hazard but high vulnerability.” Put simply, the Big One isn’t likely here—but if it comes, especially in certain locations, watch out.
Given this low-hazard, high-vulnerability scenario, how far along are scientists in their efforts to predict larger magnitude earthquakes in the New Jersey area? The answer is complex, complicated by the state’s geographical position, its unique geological history, the state of seismology itself, and the continuing debate over the exact nature and activity of the Ramapo Fault.
Over millions of years, New Jersey developed four distinct physiographic provinces or regions, which divide the state into a series of diagonal slices, each with its own terrain, rock type, and geological landforms.
The northernmost slice is the Valley and Ridge, comprising major portions of Sussex and Warren counties. The southernmost slice is the Coastal Plain, a huge expanse that covers some three-fifths of the state, including all of the Shore counties. Dividing the rest of the state are the Highlands, an area for the most part of solid but brittle rock right below the Valley and Ridge, and the lower lands of the Piedmont, which occupy all of Essex, Hudson, and Union counties, most of Bergen, Hunterdon, and Somerset, and parts of Middlesex, Morris, and Passaic.
For earthquake monitors and scientists, the formation of these last two provinces—the Highlands and the Piedmont—are of special interest. To understand why, consider that prior to the appearance of the Atlantic Ocean, today’s Africa was snuggled cozily up against North America and surrounded by a single enormous ocean. “At that point, you could have had exits off the New Jersey Turnpike for Morocco,” says Alexander Gates, professor of geology and chair of the department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Rutgers-Newark.
Under the pressure of circulating material within the Earth’s super-hot middle layer, or mantle, what was once a single continent—one that is thought to have included today’s other continents as well—began to stretch and eventually break, producing numerous cracks or faults and ultimately separating to form what became the Atlantic Ocean. In our area, the longest and most active of these many cracks was the Ramapo Fault, which, through a process known as normal faulting, caused one side of the earth’s crust to slip lower—the Piedmont—relative to the other side—the Highlands. “All this occurred about 225 million years ago,” says Gates. “Back then, you were talking about thousands of feet between the Highlands and the Piedmont and a very active Ramapo Fault.”
The Earth’s crust, which is 20 to 25 miles thick, is not a single, solid shell, but is broken into seven vast tectonic plates, which drift atop the soft, underlying mantle. Although the northeast-trending Ramapo Fault neatly divides two of New Jersey’s four physiographic provinces, it does not form a so-called plate boundary, as does California’s infamous San Andreas Fault. As many Californians know all too well, this giant fault forms the boundary between two plates—to the west, the Pacific Plate, and to the east, the North American Plate; these rub up against each other, producing huge stresses and a regularly repeating pattern of larger earthquakes.
The Ramapo Fault sits on the North American Plate, which extends past the East Coast to the middle of the Atlantic, where it meets the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, an underwater mountain range in constant flux. The consequences of this intraplate setting are huge: First, as Gates points out, “The predictability of bigger earthquakes on…[such] settings is exceedingly poor, because they don’t occur very often.” Second, the intraplate setting makes it more difficult to link our earthquakes to a major cause or fault, as monitors in California can often do.
This second bit of uncertainty is especially troubling for some people, including some in the media who want a neat story. To get around it, they ignore the differences between plate settings and link all of New Jersey’s earthquakes, either directly or implicitly, to the Ramapo Fault. In effect, such people want the Ramapo Fault “to look like the San Andreas Fault,” says Gates. “They want to be able to point to one big fault that’s causing all of our earthquakes.”
Gates does not think that’s the case, and he has been working with colleagues for a number of years to prove it. “What we have found is that there are smaller faults that generally cut from east to west across the northeast-trending Ramapo Fault,” he explains. “These much smaller faults are all over the place, and they’re actually the ones that are the active faults in the area.”
But what mechanisms are responsible for the formation of these apparently active auxiliary faults? One such mechanism, say scientists, is the westward pressure the Atlantic Ocean exerts on the North American Plate, which for the most part resists any movement. “I think we are in an equilibrium state most of the time,” says Lamont-Doherty’s Kim.
Still, that continuous pressure on the plate we sit on causes stress, and when that stress builds up sufficiently, the earth’s crust has a tendency to break around any weak zones. In our area, the major weak zone is the Ramapo Fault—“an ancient zone of weakness,” as Kim calls it. That zone of weakness exacerbates the formation of auxiliary faults, and thereby the series of minor earthquakes the state has experienced over the years.
All this presupposes, of course, that any intraplate stress in this area will continue to be released gradually, in a series of relatively minor earthquakes or releases of energy. But what if that were not the case? What if the stress continued to build up, and the release of large amounts of energy came all at once? In crude terms, that’s part of the story behind the giant earthquakes that rocked what is now New Madrid, Missouri, between 1811 and 1812. Although estimates of their magnitude have been revised downward in recent years to less than magnitude 8, these earthquakes are generally regarded as among the largest intraplate events to have occurred in the continental United States.
For a number of reasons—including the relatively low odds that the kind of stored energy that unleashed the New Madrid events could ever build up here—earthquakes of plus-6 magnitude are probably not in our future. Still, says Kim, even a magnitude 6 earthquake in certain areas of the state could do considerable damage, especially if its intensity or ground shaking was of sufficient strength. In a state as geologically diverse and densely populated as New Jersey, this is a crucial wild card.
Part of the job of the experts at the New Jersey Geological Survey is to assess the seismic hazards in different parts of the state. To do this, they use a computer-simulation model developed under the direction of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, known as HAZUS, for Hazards US. To assess the amount of ground shaking likely to occur in a given county during events ranging in magnitude from 5 to 7 on the Richter Scale, NJGS scientists enter three features of a county’s surface geology into their computer model. Two of these features relate to the tendency of soil in a given area to lose strength, liquefy, or slide downhill when shaken. The third and most crucial feature has to do with the depth and density of the soil itself and the type of bedrock lying below it; this is a key component in determining a region’s susceptibility to ground shaking and, therefore, in estimating the  amount of building and structural damage that’s likely to occur in that region. Estimates for the various counties—nine to date have been studied—are sent to the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management, which provided partial funding for the project.
To appreciate why this element of ground geology is so crucial to earthquake modelers, consider the following: An earthquake’s intensity—which is measured on something called the Modified Mercalli Scale—is related to a number of factors. The amount of energy released or the magnitude of an event is clearly a big factor. But two earthquakes of the same magnitude can have very different levels of intensity; in fact, it’s quite possible for a lower magnitude event to generate more ground shaking than a higher magnitude one.
In addition to magnitude, other factors that affect intensity are the distance of the observer or structure from the epicenter, where intensity is the greatest; the depth beneath the surface of the initial  rupture, with shallower ruptures producing more ground shaking than deeper ones; and, most significantly, the ground geology or material that the shock wave generated by the earthquake must pass through.
As a rule, softer materials like sand and gravel shake much more intensely than harder materials, because the softer materials are comparatively inefficient energy conductors, so whatever energy is released by the quake tends to be trapped, dispersing much more slowly. (Think of a bowl of Jell-O on a table that’s shaking.)
In contrast, harder materials, like the solid rock found widely in the Highlands, are brittle and break under pressure, but conduct energy well, so that even big shock waves disperse much more rapidly through them, thereby weakening the amount of ground shaking. “If you’ve read any stories about the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, you know the most intense damage was in those flat, low areas by the Bay, where the soil is soft, and not in the hilly, rocky areas above,” says Karl Muessig, state geologist and NJGS head.
The map that accompanies the online version of the NJGS’s Earthquake Loss Estimation Study divides the state’s surface geology into five seismic soil classes, ranging from Class A, or hard rock, to Class E, or soft soil (state.nj.us/dep/njgs/enviroed/hazus.htm).
Although the weakest soils are scattered throughout the state, including the Highlands, which besides harder rock also contains areas of glacial lakes, clays, and wetlands, they are most evident in the Piedmont and the Coastal Plain. “The largest expanses of them are in coastal areas where you have salt marshes or large glacial lakes, as in parts of the Passaic River basin,” says Scott Stanford, a research scientist with NJGS and lead author of the estimate. Some of the very weakest soils, Stanford adds, are in areas of filled marshland, including places along the Hudson waterfront, around Newark Bay and the Meadowlands, and along the Arthur Kill.
Faults in these areas—and in the coastal plain generally—are far below the ground, perhaps several hundred to a thousand feet down, making identification difficult. “There are numerous faults upon which you might get earthquake movement that we can’t see, because they’re covered by younger sediments,” Stanford says.
This combination of hidden faults and weak soils worries scientists, who are all too aware that parts of the coastal plain and Piedmont are among the most densely populated and developed areas in the state. (The HAZUS computer model also has a “built environment” component, which summarizes, among other things, types of buildings in a given area.) For this reason, such areas would be in the most jeopardy in the event of a large earthquake.
“Any vulnerable structure on these weak soils would have a higher failure hazard,” Stanford says. And the scary truth is that many structures in New Jersey’s largest cities, not to mention New York City, would be vulnerable, since they’re older and built before anyone gave much thought to earthquake-related engineering and construction codes.
For example, in the study’s loss estimate for Essex County, which includes Newark, the state’s largest city, a magnitude 6 event would result in damage to 81,600 buildings, including almost 10,000 extensively or completely; 36,000 people either displaced from their homes or forced to seek short-term shelter; almost $9 million in economic losses from property damage and business interruption; and close to 3,300 injuries and 50 fatalities. (The New York City Area Consortium for Earthquake Loss Mitigation has conducted a similar assessment for New York City, at nycem.org.)
All of this suggests the central irony of New Jersey geology: The upland areas that are most prone to earthquakes—the counties in or around the Ramapo Fault, which has spawned a network of splays, or  auxiliary faults—are much less densely populated and sit, for the most part, on good bedrock. These areas are not invulnerable, certainly, but, by almost all measures, they would not sustain very severe damage, even in the event of a higher magnitude earthquake. The same can’t be said for other parts of the state, where the earthquake hazard is lower but the vulnerability far greater. Here, the best we can do is to prepare—both in terms of better building codes and a constantly improving emergency response.
Meanwhile, scientists like Rutgers’s Gates struggle to understand the Earth’s quirky seismic timetable: “The big thing with earthquakes is that you can commonly predict where they are going to occur,” Gates says. “When they’re going to come, well, we’re nowhere near being able to figure that out.”
***********************
Planning for the Big One
For the men and women of the state police who manage and support the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the response to some events, like hurricanes, can be marshalled in advance. But an earthquake is what responders call a no-notice event.
In New Jersey, even minor earthquakes—like the one that shook parts of Somerset County in February—attract the notice of local, county, and OEM officials, who continuously monitor events around the state from their Regional Operations and Intelligence Center (The ROIC) in West Trenton, a multimillion dollar command-and-control facility that has been built to withstand 125 mph winds and a 5.5 magnitude earthquake. In the event of a very large earthquake, during which local and county resources are apt to become quickly overwhelmed, command and control authority would almost instantly pass to West Trenton.
Here, officials from the state police, representatives of a galaxy of other state agencies, and a variety of communications and other experts would assemble in the cavernous and ultra-high tech Emergency Operations Center to oversee the state’s response. “A high-level earthquake would definitely cause the governor to declare a state of emergency,” says OEM public information officer Nicholas J. Morici. “And once that takes place, our emergency operations plan would be put in motion.”
Emergency officials have modeled that plan—one that can be adapted to any no-notice event, including a terrorist attack—on response methodologies developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. At its core is a series of seventeen emergency support functions, ranging from transportation to firefighting, debris removal, search and rescue, public health, and medical services. A high-magnitude event would likely activate all of these functions, says Morici, along with the human and physical resources needed to carry them out—cranes and heavy trucks for debris removal, fire trucks and teams for firefighting, doctors and EMTs for medical services, buses and personnel carriers for transportation, and so on.
This is where an expert like Tom Rafferty comes in. Rafferty is a Geographic Information Systems Specialist attached to the OEM. His job during an emergency is to keep track electronically of which resources are where in the state, so they can be deployed quickly to where they are needed. “We have a massive database called the Resource Directory Database in which we have geolocated municipal, county, and state assets to a very detailed map of New Jersey,” Rafferty says. “That way, if there is an emergency like an earthquake going on in one area, the emergency managers can quickly say to me, for instance, ‘We have major debris and damage on this spot of the map. Show us the location of the nearest heavy hauler. Show us the next closest location,’ and so on.”
A very large quake, Rafferty says, “could overwhelm resources that we have as a state.” In that event, OEM has the authority to reach out to FEMA for additional resources and assistance. It can also call upon the private sector—the Resource Directory has been expanded to include non-government assets—and to a network of volunteers. “No one has ever said, ‘We don’t want to help,’” Rafferty says. New Jersey officials can also request assistance through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC), an agreement among the states to help each other in times of extreme crisis.
“You always plan for the worst,” Rafferty says, “and that way when the worst doesn’t happen, you feel you can handle it if and when it does.”
Contributing editor Wayne J. Guglielmo lives in Mahwah, near the Ramapo Fault.

The science behind the sixth seal: Revelation 6:12

The science behind the earthquake that shook Southern New England

Did you feel it? At 9:10 am EST Sunday morning, a Magnitude 3.6 earthquake struck just south of Bliss Corner, Massachusetts, which is a census-designated place in Dartmouth. If you felt it, report it!

While minor earthquakes do happen from time to time in New England, tremors that are felt by a large number of people and that cause damage are rare.

Earthquake Report

The earthquake was originally measured as a magnitude 4.2 on the Richter scale by the United States Geological Surgey (USGS) before changing to a 3.6.

Earthquakes in New England and most places east of the Rocky Mountains are much different than the ones that occur along well-known fault lines in California and along the West Coast.

Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts fall nearly in the center of the North American Plate, one of 15 (seven primary, eight secondary) that cover the Earth.

Earth’s tectonic plates

Tectonic plates move ever-so-slowly, and as they either push into each other, pull apart, or slide side-by-side, earthquakes are possible within the bedrock, usually miles deep.

Most of New England’s and Long Island’s bedrock was assembled as continents collided to form a supercontinent 500-300 million years ago, raising the northern Appalachian Mountains.

Plate tectonics (Courtesy: Encyclopaedia Britannica)

Fault lines left over from the creation of the Appalachian Mountains can still lead to earthquakes locally, and many faults remain undetected. According to the USGS, few, if any, earthquakes in New England can be linked to named faults.

While earthquakes in New England are generally much weaker compared to those on defined fault lines, their reach is still impressive. Sunday’s 3.6 was felt in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and New Hampshire.

USGS Community Internet Intensity Map

While M 3.6 earthquakes rarely cause damage, some minor cracks were reported on social media from the shaking.

According to the USGS, moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt roughly twice a year.

The largest known New England earthquakes occurred in 1638 (magnitude 6.5) in Vermont or New Hampshire, and in 1755 (magnitude 5.8) offshore from Cape Ann northeast of Boston.

The most recent New England earthquake to cause moderate damage occurred in 1940 (magnitude 5.6) in central New Hampshire.

The winds of God‘s wrath is still not over: Jeremiah 23

Record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially over … but could still break more records

By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff write

Published Nov. 30, 2020 8:00 AM

The number of storms was literally off the charts this year, with more named cyclones than any other year in history – but in one aspect, the relentless season didn’t even crack the top 10.

Generating storms at a rapid-fire pace and filled with enough plot twists to rival an M. Night Shyamalan movie, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season started early and ended with a trio of storms in late October through mid-November. And, as AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno remarked, “it never stopped” in between.

AccuWeather’s team of tropical weather forecasters, led by veteran meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, saw many of the plot twists coming way back in March when they called for a ”hyperactive” Atlantic basin season to ensue, and the 2020 hurricane season indeed provided steadfast suspense with what seemed like daily new tropical developments and all manner of unique storm tracks.

Along with giving multiple pages of the hurricane record book some new ink, the 2020 season also challenged conventional logic for some long-held assumptions about hurricane season, such as the pace at which a storm intensifies and the areas where certain storms may hit.

Plus, the 2020 season also demonstrated how the official June 1 beginning and Nov. 30 end of hurricane season are flexible dates in the eyes of Mother Nature.

For just the second time in the modern hurricane-naming era, the Atlantic season exhausted its pre-determined list of designated storm names for the season. After burning through the 21 names from the English alphabet by mid-September, the season began moving through the Greek alphabet for the first time since 2005.

With 30 named storms this year, the 2020 season shattered the record previously held by the infamous 2005 season for most named systems in a single season. Of those 30, 13 became hurricanes and six of those became major hurricanes – Category 3 or stronger. And just because the Atlantic basin hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, that doesn’t mean more tropical cyclone activity won’t happen this year — more on that below.

Like a well-rounded prizefighter, the season packed speed, strength and stamina into its six-month marathon. Here are some of the biggest takeaways that will be remembered when looking back on the 2020 season:

Speed

Right out of the gates, even before hurricane season was officially underway, a flurry of storms developed and broke many records in the process. The season’s first named system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed on May 14 and was quickly followed by Tropical Storm Bertha 10 days later. The pair of May storms marked the first Atlantic basin hurricane season since 2012 that featured two “pre-season” storms, as both formed before June 1, the official beginning of the Atlantic basin hurricane season.

That quick pace set the tone for the season, in which dozens of records were broken. After Bertha, Tropical Storm Cristobal became the fastest forming C-letter storm on record, and while Tropical Storm Dolly didn’t get the record for earliest-forming D-letter storm, every following storm from Tropical Storm Edouard to Hurricane Iota broke the respective earliest-forming records.

The speed of intensification was also remarkable with a number of the tropical cyclones this season. According to Sam Lillo, a meteorologist with the University of Oklahoma, 10 of the season’s 13 hurricanes underwent rapid intensification, matching a record set by the 1995 season.

Rapid intensification is defined as a storm undergoing a maximum wind increase of at least 29 mph within a 24-hour period. Lillo added that six of those storms were Greek-letter storms.

One of those rapidly intensifying storms, Zeta, also packed notable forward speed during its trek across the Gulf of Mexico. Barreling toward Louisiana, the hurricane moved at a breakneck pace of 22 mph and quickly jumped from Category 1 to Category 2 strength just before coming ashore.

At the spot of landfall, AccuWeather National Reporter Jonathan Petramala captured the moments Zeta bolted onshore and tore homes apart.

Strength

Although the storms of 2020 will certainly be remembered for their quantity and rapid succession, the cumulative strength of the season, recognized by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index, paints a different picture.

While this year’s season packed the highest number of total named storms of any season on record, the ACE index suggests that the season may have been more mild than extreme.

“The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index characterizes the intensity and longevity of all storms in a year,” AccuWeather Broadcast Meteorologist Geoff Cornish said. “While the Atlantic produced more storms than any other year on record, the ACE generated by the 30 storms was disproportionately low.”

Cornish explained that as the season draws to a close, “2020 lands in 13th place for ACE generated in a year.” Records on ACE have been kept going back to 1851. “In other words,” Cornish noted, “12 other years produced more ACE in the Atlantic than the 2020 season.”

For perspective, Cornish, citing data from Colorado State University, pointed to the years 1933, 2005, 1893 and 1926 as Atlantic basin hurricane seasons that ranked substantially higher on the ACE Index despite having fewer storms.

“This indicates there were several weak storms during the season,” Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather’s chief hurricane expert, said, adding, “2005 had more intense hurricanes with five Category 5 hurricanes.” Kottlowksi pointed out that 2020 produced only one Category 5 storm, Iota, the last hurricane of the season (so far).

“For much of this year, the ACE generated per storm has been half of the long-term, historical average,” Cornish pointed out. “In other words, we’ve had a swarm of weaker, short-lived storms. However, there have been a few great exceptions like Teddy [the year’s top ACE producer with 27.8 units], Eta, Paulette, the storm that wouldn’t go away, Delta, Epsilon, Laura and Iota.” All of those storms produced 10 or more units of ACE.

While Teddy, a Category 4 hurricane in September, produced the highest ACE, history is more likely to remember the devastating landfalls of hurricanes such as Laura in Louisiana and the combo of Eta and Iota in Central America.

Laura struck the Bayou State with landfalling winds not seen since pre-Civil War America, causing about $25 to $30 billion of damage, according to AccuWeather estimates. Louisiana was further damaged by Hurricane Delta and Hurricane Zeta en route to a record-breaking season for the state.

However, despite the cornucopia of previous storms, no 2020 storm packed as much punch as the final named storm of the season, Hurricane Iota.

Iota reached Category 5 strength on Nov. 16, becoming the first hurricane on record ever to reach that strength so late in a season. At its peak intensity, sustained winds hit 160 mph and the storm’s central barometric pressure reached a minimum of 27.08 inches of mercury, or 917 millibars, as its center made a close pass by the Colombian islands of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina. Low barometric pressure is a telltale sign of a storm’s powerful intensity.

Iota would go on to slam Central America in nearly the same exact spot that Hurricane Eta had wrought devastation less than two weeks before. Eta, which made landfall in Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, struck with Category 4 strength and claimed dozens of lives and left hundreds more missing.

Just two weeks later, Iota came ashore less than 15 miles from Puerto Cabezas and dealt another tragic blow to the region, triggering a humanitarian crisis with millions of residents being trapped in what AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers called “one of the worst floods in some of these areas in a thousand years or more.”

Kottlowksi suggested that one reason that the 2020 season produced so many named storms could have something to do with meteorologists’ enhanced ability to spot lesser tropical cyclones as technology has advanced over the years. He said that “newer technology enables forecasters to better analyze the smaller, less-detectable storms, and we had a few very short-lived storms, which might not have been detected more than 20 years ago.”

Stamina

“It started early – and it never stopped,” AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said of the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season.

What the 2020 season may be most remembered for is just how long it lasted and its exhausting pace. “Typically, we get the mid-season doldrums in mid-July to mid-August,” Rayno said. “That didn’t happen this year.”

In fact, the season never had a period of two consecutive weeks without at least one storm in circulation. The longest stretch without an active storm was between the end of Tropical Storm Cristobal and the start of Tropical Storm Dolly, which was 13 days.

It was common throughout the season to have multiple named storms occupying attention at once, particularly during September. At one point during the month, five different named storms – Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy and Vicky – were spinning at once.

The overabundance of storms also set a new record for the most landfalling named storms on U.S. soil in a single year — 12 storms came ashore on the U.S. coastline, shattering the record of nine that had stood since 1916. Another record was set in Louisiana for most landfalling storms in the state for a single season.

The battered Bayou State sustained hits from five landfalling named storms this year, four of which were hurricanes. Spread out over 20 weeks, from Cristobal to Zeta, Louisiana residents never got a reprieve this season.

In terms of longevity, no 2020 storm lived longer than Paulette, which hung around for a whopping 15 days before dissipating near Portugal after impacting Bermuda a full week prior.

A look at Paulette’s long history in the Atlantic Ocean. (AccuWeather)

Another notably long-lasting track was the one charted by Eta, which took a unique zig-zagging route from its initial landfalls as a hurricane in Central America, before making landfalls in Cuba and the Florida Keys as a tropical storm. Eta then made a final landfall along the west coast of Florida, near Tampa, a region that very rarely absorbs a direct hit from a tropical system.

Hurricane Eta’s winding journey featured significant impacts dealt to both Central America and the United States, with a stop in Cuba in between. (AccuWeather)

In early August, Hurricane Isaias left a memorable mark on the season by ravaging the East Coast, particularly the Northeast. In Philadelphia and New York City, lives were claimed by the widespread flooding and falling trees as a result of the storm’s intense winds and numerous tornadoes it spawned.

Widespread power outages also remained in the Northeast for multiple days, marking a wide-ranging spread of impacts after the storm’s initial landfall in the Bahamas. The storm restrengthened into a hurricane in time to strike North Carolina following several days when it was parallel along the coasts of Florida and Georgia.

From there, Isaias pummeled the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, leaving long-lasting memories for a region not accustomed to such storms, a sentiment Kottlowski echoed when recounting his most memorable storms of the year.

“Isaias caused considerable wind damage up the East Coast of the U.S.,” Kottlowski said. “I was impressed on how the storm maintained a very intense wind field for more than two days after moving inland.”

Have we seen the end of the 2020 season?

While Nov. 30 may mark the official end to the Atlantic basin hurricane season, Mother Nature has always played by her own rules and 2020 could prove to be no different. Forecasters were closely monitoring a system that was beginning to take shape southeast of the Azores in the eastern Atlantic on Monday, warning that it could become Subtropical Storm Kappa at any moment. Subtropical storms are hybrid systems that acquire both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.

So should we have any confidence that the 2020 season will follow the rules and end before December?

“It is very unlikely that we’d see anything hitting the United States because the westerlies – the steering flow of winds out of the west – are so strong that any storm that would try to develop would likely be steered east of the U.S.,” Rayno said of the potential for tropical activity beyond Nov. 30. But, he said, considering the entirety of the Atlantic basin, “I’m not going to rule it out.”

As Kottlowski pointed out, some conditions are still in place to support development. “There is considerable warm water in place over parts of the Atlantic Basin that could support late-season development even during the month of December,” he said. Indeed, during the waning days of the 2020 hurricane season, water temperatures were still above 80 degrees Fahrenheit in some parts of the Gulf of Mexico. And even in some places where temperatures were below 80, they were still above average for this time of year.

“I can see another storm [developing] that would take us to 31,” Rayno said, noting that an eye should be kept on the area around Bermuda. But, he added, for the U.S., “I think essentially we’re done.”

Final tally

Depending on where people live, the 2020 season could be remembered for a plethora of different reasons.

“The big story of this season is the number of landfalls and the rapid intensification of some of these storms,” Rayno said. The two hot spots this season that really caught Rayno’s attention were the areas of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, which resulted in the Louisiana coast taking a beating as well as the Nicaragua coast, which Rayno dubbed “the Louisiana of Central America,” being hard hit.

Kottlowski echoed that point. “Two major hurricane hits on Nicaragua and Honduras in nearly the same areas,” he marveled. “Another highly unusual situation causing significant damage and suffering.”

In Central America, the one-two punch of Eta and Iota could leave scars for decades, much like how the powerful effects of Hurricane Mitch from 1998 are still remembered.

In the Southeast, the barrage of Louisiana storms worked their way through inland areas and will leave plenty of dark memories following the widespread power outages that blanketed states such as Georgia.

However, for all weather enthusiasts, the memories of 2020 will be memorialized by the broken records and the nonstop twists and turns. Amid a wacky year that has left the globe upended by the coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented and never-ending hurricane season may have been perfectly fitting. Or for some, maybe too fitting.

Today is the last day of the winds of God’s wrath? Jeremiah 23

Today is the last day of the record-smashing 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

Thank goodness

By Justine Calma on November 30, 2020 11:42 am

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends today, wrapping up a truly exhausting season that smashed records and dealt repeated blows to vulnerable coastal communities.

It’s just been crazy,” says Allison Wing an assistant professor of meteorology at Florida State University. “For the forecasters and scientists involved I think everyone is really just a bit tired at this point and kind of ready for it to be over.”

“ THIS WAS THE MOST ACTIVE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON EVER DOCUMENTED”

This was the most active Atlantic hurricane season ever documented. Thirteen storms strengthened into hurricanes, the second highest number in recorded history. Thirty storms grew strong enough to earn a name, beating 2005’s record of 28 storms. The World Meteorological Organization actually ran out of storm names by September, turning to the Greek alphabet for labels for the first time since 2005. For comparison, an average season only has a dozen named storms.

Researchers knew this year would be a doozy from the beginning. “All of the things pointed in the direction of having a very active season, and then it came to fruition,” says Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic were warmer than usual, fueling stronger storms. The West African monsoon, a major wind system that can influence storms over the Atlantic, was also stronger this year. There was also weaker vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which is good news for hurricanes since stronger wind shear can tear the storms apart. The season became even busier when a La Nina climate pattern developed in September and weakened the wind shear even more.

“ “ONE OF THE MOST NOTABLE THINGS ABOUT 2020 IS JUST ALL THESE STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.”

While a busy season was predictable, nine storms this season threw additional curveballs at forecasters when they rapidly intensified as they approached land. “To me, that’s one of the most notable things about 2020 is just all these storms rapidly intensifying up to or almost up to the point of landfall,” says Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.

Storms that gain power so quickly can be especially dangerous because it gives people less time to prepare for the fierce winds and rising waters. There are only two other years — 1995 and 2010 — with nine rapidly intensifying storms on the books, according to Klotzbach. Unfortunately, rapid intensification appears to be happening more often as global average temperatures continue to rise.

The fury of these intense storms was not evenly distributed. Some places got hit repeatedly, with barely any room between storms to brace themselves. Eta and Iota devastated Nicaragua and Honduras within two weeks of each other this November. Iota, the strongest hurricane on record to strike Nicaragua, triggered catastrophic flooding and landslides; at least 40 people have died across Central America and Columbia as a result. Louisiana was hard hit, too. Five storms, nearly half of all of the storms that made landfall in the US this year, struck the state. The most devastating was Hurricane Laura, which made landfall with category 4 strength and killed at least 23 people in the state. Iota and Laura pushed tens of thousands more from their homes.

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season was horrible, but by some measures, it still pales in comparison to 2005. While 2020 had more storms, 2005 had stronger storms. Thankfully, no single storm this year matched the pain wrought by 2005’s Hurricane Katrina which killed well over 1,000 people.

“ FORECASTERS ARE STILL AT WORK”

Now, the season is formally over, but 2020 isn’t one to stick with formalities. Officially, the season begins on June 1st each year and ends on November 30th. But this year, the first named storm, Arthur, developed in May. That made this the sixth consecutive year that a storm earned its name before June 1st. Normally, the Atlantic’s season follows a curve, with the busiest part of the season in September before gradually tapering off. This year, some of the strongest hurricanes — Eta and Iota — struck unusually late, and they may not be the last storms to form. Just like it disregarded the official start to the season, 2020 may persist past its official end. There’s no guarantee that we won’t see more stragglers through December.

Forecasters are still at work and are currently keeping an eye on a low-pressure system in the eastern Atlantic, which could become Kappa.

Still another wind of God’s wrath: Jeremiah 23

Hurricane center increases odds of development for system in far east Atlantic

By PAOLA PÉREZ

ORLANDO SENTINEL

NOV 29, 2020 AT 1:40 PM

One system in the Atlantic Ocean with potential to form into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm was under close watch by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday, as the end of hurricane season grew closer.

As of 1 p.m., the non-tropical low pressure system system was becoming more organized in the far east Atlantic and moving towards the Canary Islands, producing showers and thunderstorms near Africa.

Forecasters described it as “strong and large.” It poses no threat to Florida or the U.S. at large.

The low could acquire subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development by the middle of the week, the NHC’s latest advisory said.

“Regardless of development, this system should cause strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Monday or Tuesday,” the advisory read.

If it achieves circulation and spun up to at least 39 mph, it would be most likely subtropical and become Subtropical Storm Kappa.

On Sunday morning, the center stopped tracking a separate system in the Central Atlantic that had low developmental chances throughout Saturday.

In 2005, the last of its tropical storms, Tropical Storm Zeta, formed on Dec. 30 and lasted through Jan. 6 of 2006.

Staff writer Richard Tribou and Lynnette Cantos contributed to this report.

New York Earthquake: City of the Sixth Seal (Revelation 6:12)

New York earthquake: City at risk of ‚dangerous shaking from far away‘
Joshua Nevett
Published 30th April 2018
SOME of New York City’s tallest skyscrapers are at risk of being shaken by seismic waves triggered by powerful earthquakes from miles outside the city, a natural disaster expert has warned.
Researchers believe that a powerful earthquake, magnitude 5 or greater, could cause significant damage to large swathes of NYC, a densely populated area dominated by tall buildings.
A series of large fault lines that run underneath NYC’s five boroughs, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, The Bronx and Staten Island, are capable of triggering large earthquakes.
Some experts have suggested that NYC is susceptible to at least a magnitude 5 earthquake once every 100 years.
The last major earthquake measuring over magnitude 5.0 struck NYC in 1884 – meaning another one of equal size is “overdue” by 34 years, according their prediction model.
Natural disaster researcher Simon Day, of University College London, agrees with the conclusion that NYC may be more at risk from earthquakes than is usually thought.
EARTHQUAKE RISK: New York is susceptible to seismic shaking from far-away tremors
But the idea of NYC being “overdue” for an earthquake is “invalid”, not least because the “very large number of faults” in the city have individually low rates of activity, he said.
The model that predicts strong earthquakes based on timescale and stress build-up on a given fault has been “discredited”, he said.
What scientists should be focusing on, he said, is the threat of large and potentially destructive earthquakes from “much greater distances”.
The dangerous effects of powerful earthquakes from further away should be an “important feature” of any seismic risk assessment of NYC, Dr Day said.

GETTY
THE BIG APPLE: An aerial view of Lower Manhattan at dusk in New York City

USGS
RISK: A seismic hazard map of New York produced by USGS
“New York is susceptible to seismic shaking from earthquakes at much greater distances” Dr Simon Day, natural disaster researcher
This is because the bedrock underneath parts of NYC, including Long Island and Staten Island, cannot effectively absorb the seismic waves produced by earthquakes.
“An important feature of the central and eastern United States is, because the crust there is old and cold, and contains few recent fractures that can absorb seismic waves, the rate of seismic reduction is low.
Central regions of NYC, including Manhattan, are built upon solid granite bedrock; therefore the amplification of seismic waves that can shake buildings is low.
But more peripheral areas, such as Staten Island and Long Island, are formed by weak sediments, meaning seismic hazard in these areas is “very likely to be higher”, Dr Day said.
“Thus, like other cities in the eastern US, New York is susceptible to seismic shaking from earthquakes at much greater distances than is the case for cities on plate boundaries such as Tokyo or San Francisco, where the crustal rocks are more fractured and absorb seismic waves more efficiently over long distances,” Dr Day said.
In the event of a large earthquake, dozens of skyscrapers, including Chrysler Building, the Woolworth Building and 40 Wall Street, could be at risk of shaking.
“The felt shaking in New York from the Virginia earthquake in 2011 is one example,” Dr Day said.
On that occasion, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake centered 340 miles south of New York sent thousands of people running out of swaying office buildings.

USGS
FISSURES: Fault lines in New York City have low rates of activity, Dr Day said
NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the city was “lucky to avoid any major harm” as a result of the quake, whose epicenter was near Louisa, Virginia, about 40 miles from Richmond.
“But an even more impressive one is the felt shaking from the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes in the central Mississippi valley, which was felt in many places across a region, including cities as far apart as Detroit, Washington DC and New Orleans, and in a few places even further afield including,” Dr Day added.
“So, if one was to attempt to do a proper seismic hazard assessment for NYC, one would have to include potential earthquake sources over a wide region, including at least the Appalachian mountains to the southwest and the St Lawrence valley to the north and east.”