The Third Woe: San Francisco Earthquake (Revelation 11:14)

Chilling new report predicts massive earthquake and tsunami for Pacific Northwest

It’s just a matter of time before a mega-quake hits the region between Northern California and British Columbia, where it is expected to kill more than 10,000 people and cause $32 billion in damages, the report says

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: Friday, March 15, 2013, 9:36 AM
Overflow from Elk Creek flows down Access Road in Elkton Thursday Jan. 19, 2012. A new report predicts a massive earthquake and tsunami off the Pacific Northwest coast would inundate towns and cost $32 billion worth of damage.
MICHAEL SULLIVAN/AP Overflow from Elk Creek flows down Access Road in Elkton Thursday Jan. 19, 2012. A new report predicts a massive earthquake and tsunami off the Pacific Northwest coast would inundate towns and cost $32 billion worth of damage.

SALEM, Ore. — More than 10,000 people could die when — not if — a monster earthquake and tsunami occur just off the Pacific Northwest coast, researchers told Oregon legislators Thursday.
Coastal towns would be inundated. Schools, buildings and bridges would collapse, and economic damage could hit $32 billion.
These findings were published in a chilling new report by the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission, a group of more than 150 volunteer experts.
In 2011, the Legislature authorized the study of what would happen if a quake and tsunami such as the one that devastated Japan hit the Pacific Northwest.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone, just off the regional coastline, produced a mega-quake in the year 1700. Seismic experts say another monster quake and tsunami are overdue.
“This earthquake will hit us again,” Kent Yu, an engineer and chairman of the commission, told lawmakers. “It’s just a matter of how soon.”
When it hits, the report says, there will be devastation and death from Northern California to British Columbia.
Many Oregon communities will be left without water, power, heat and telephone service. Gasoline supplies will be disrupted.
The 2011 Japan quake and tsunami were a wakeup call for the Pacific Northwest. Governments have been taking a closer look at whether the region is prepared for something similar and discovering it is not.
Oregon legislators requested the study so they could better inform themselves about what needs to be done to prepare and recover from such a giant natural disaster.

An aerial view of the waterfront section of Hilo Island of Hawaii, where a tidal wave hit on April 1, 1946. Scientists say grinding geologic circumstances similar to those in Sumatra also exist just off the Pacific Northwest coast and could trigger a tsunami that could hit Northern California, Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in minutes.
ASSOCIATED PRESS An aerial view of the waterfront section of Hilo Island of Hawaii, where a tidal wave hit on April 1, 1946. Scientists say grinding geologic circumstances similar to those in Sumatra also exist just off the Pacific Northwest coast and could trigger a tsunami that could hit Northern California, Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in minutes.

The report says that geologically, Oregon and Japan are mirror images. Despite the devastation in Japan, that country was more prepared than Oregon because it had spent billions on technology to reduce the damage, the report says.
Jay Wilson, the commission’s vice chairman, visited Japan and said he was profoundly affected as he walked through villages ravaged by the tsunami.
“It was just as if these communities were ghost towns, and for the most part there was nothing left,” said Wilson, who works for the Clackamas County emergency management department.
Wilson told legislators that there was a similar event 313 years ago in the Pacific Northwest, and “we’re well within the window for it to happen again.”
Experts representing a variety of state agencies, industries and organizations expanded on the report’s findings and shared with lawmakers how they have begun planning.
Sue Graves, a safety coordinator for the Lincoln County School District, told lawmakers that high school students in her district take semester-long classes that teach CPR and other survival techniques in the wake of a giant earthquake. The class teaches students to “duck, cover and hold” when the ground starts shaking.
Maree Wacker, chief executive officer of the American Red Cross of Oregon, said it is important for residents to have their own contingency plans for natural disasters.
“Oregonians as individuals are underprepared,” she said.

Killing a Third of Mankind (Zechariah 13:9)


Escalation of India-Pakistan Conflict ‘Threatens World With Nuclear Catastrophe
Sputnik
Tensions are growing between India and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. So far this month, 11 people have been killed and another 18 injured amid violations of the ceasefire along the line of control. RIA Novosti contributor Ilya Plekhanov warns that the conflict risks turning into a threat to global stability.
So far in the month of July, nearly a dozen people have been killed, with 4,000 more forced to leave their homes amid rising tensions on the line of control, the military delineation between the Indian and Pakistani-controlled portions of Jammu and Kashmir. Delhi and Islamabad have traded accusations over the crossfire.
The Indian Defense Ministry accused Pakistani forces of targeting civilians in artillery attacks. Meanwhile, following ceasefire violations on July 21, Pakistan blamed India for violating ceasefire norms, and summoned the Indian deputy high commissioner to discuss the issue.
Amid the flaring of tensions, Indian ex-minister of information and broadcasting Venkaiah Naidu, recently nominated as the National Democratic Alliance party’s candidate for vice president, said on Sunday that Pakistan should remember its loss in the 1971 India-Pakistan War, after which Bangladesh broke with Islamabad and gained independence.
Meanwhile, last week, former Indian defense minister and opposition Samajwadi party chairman Mulayam Signh Yadav claimed that China was preparing to attack India, and was looking to use the Pakistani nuclear arsenal against Delhi.
Earlier this year, analysts told The New York Times that there was circumstantial evidence to suggest that Delhi was considering a reinterpretation of its nuclear doctrine, which presently prohibits the first use of nuclear weapons. Under the current doctrine, India prescribes the use of its nuclear arsenal for a massed retaliatory strike against enemy cities in the event of a Pakistani attack.
Now, experts warn, the Indian military is considering modifying its doctrine to include limited preemptive strikes against Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, ostensibly for self-defense. For now, the idea remains speculation, and based on an analysis of recent statements by Indian officials.
According to RIA Novosti contributor Ilya Plekhanov, such speculation even carries the risk of pushing Pakistan to increase its own nuclear capabilities, and unleashing a nuclear arms race between the two nuclear powers. Secondly, the journalist warned, a revision of India’s doctrine could lead Islamabad to consider any escalation as a pretext for an Indian first strike.
India and Pakistan are estimated to have stockpiles of about 120-130 and 130-140 warheads each, respectively. Indian delivery systems include the Prithvi and Agni short, medium and intermediate range missiles, as well as a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile (currently under development). Pakistan, meanwhile, possesses the Babur short to medium range nuclear-tipped cruise missile, nuclear-capable medium range ballistic missiles, and is reported to be testing new air- and sea-launched cruise missile systems, as well as nuclear-capable tactical missiles.
The long range ballistic Agni-V missile is displayed during Republic Day parade, in New Delhi, India.
© AP Photo/ Manish Swarup
The long range ballistic Agni-V missile is displayed during Republic Day parade, in New Delhi, India.
Earlier this year, Pakistan accused India of speeding up its nuclear program, and of preparing for the production of up to 2,600 nuclear warheads. In early July, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s report on global nuclear arsenals said that both countries are expanding their nuclear weapons stockpiles, and developing new delivery capabilities.
Last week, Pakistan Army brigadier (ret.) Feroz Khan, an expert on Pakistan’s nuclear program, told a panel in Washington that Islamabad’s doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons was similar to the one NATO had during the Cold War, when alliance policy was to use tactical nukes against advancing Warsaw Pact forces in the event of war.
Indians critical of Pakistan’s nuclear posture say that Islamabad uses its nuclear status to provide cover for terrorist attacks against India in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
Meanwhile, Plekhanov wrote, for India, Pakistan’s arsenal of tactical nuclear has become a strategic problem. “If Pakistan uses only tactical nuclear weapons, and only on the battlefield, then an Indian response involving the bombing of Pakistani cities would make look Delhi look very bad. Hence the talk in India about changing the interpretation of their doctrine, including the elimination of Pakistani arsenals before they are put into operation.”
Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House is another reason for growing Indian assertiveness, the journalist added. “India believes that with the new American president, it will have much more decision-making freedom in its nuclear policy. US-Pakistani relations under Trump are also on the decline; Washington has stopped considering Islamabad a reliable ally in the fight against militants in Afghanistan. India, naturally, is reassured by this.”
Pakistan Army firing NASR missile, July 2017
© Youtube/Pakistan Defence Official
Pakistan Army firing NASR missile, July 2017
Ultimately, Plekhanov warned that the growing tension on the Indian subcontinent could lead to disastrous consequences. “An escalation in Jammu and Kashmir, or a major terrorist attack in India, like the one on Mumbai, may very well serve as a trigger, kicking off a chain of events and leading to a preventative nuclear strike by one side against the other.”
“The main problem,” the journalist stressed, was that “no one knows exactly what criteria Pakistan has for the use of its nuclear weapons, or what exactly it may consider as the formal beginning of a war by India. The second problem is that terrorist attacks in India may not be connected to Pakistan at all, but that it will be very difficult to convince the Indian side of this.”
A 2008 study focused on the environmental consequences of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan by researchers from the University of Colorado and the University of California found that although the two countries nuclear arsenals are small, their use would lead to a climate catastrophe resulting in mass famine.
As a result, according to the study, about 1 billion people would die in the space of a decade. In other words, Plekhanov noted, “it seems that the distant problem concerning India and Pakistan” is not so distant after all, and “concerns the whole world.”

Precursor Of The Final Woe Of Babylon The Great (Rev 8:13)

SPRINGFIELD, Ore. — Some Oregonians woke on the Fourth of July to a significant jolt when a magnitude 4.2 earthquake struck near Springfield and Eugene.
Hundreds of people reported to the U.S. Geological Survey that they felt the quake, which struck at 8:42 a.m. Saturday.
Usually, there isn’t any damage from quakes lower than magnitude 5.5, USGS geophysicist Paul Caruso said.
City of Springfield officials said they haven’t received any reports of damage from residents or to infrastructure.
The Lane County Sheriff’s Office also said it had conducted well-checks on local businesses and no major damages or injuries were reported.
Sheriff’s officials said residents reported some mild impacts, including shaking furniture, an extremely loud explosion-type sound, items falling off walls and shelves, and woodpiles shifting.
The Oregon Department of Transportation, which conducted visual inspections of bridges in the Eugene-Springfield area, said there was no damage to any roadways or bridges.
The US Army Corps of Engineers said it too is doing routine inspections on the 13 Willamette Valley dams; no immediate damage has been reported.
The quake was centered about 12 miles east of Eugene. It was about 4 miles deep, which Caruso of the USGS says is considered shallow.
Utah was also hit by an earthquake Saturday morning, the USGS said. About 10 a.m. Utah time, a magnitude 4.0 quake hit about 1 mile south of Panguitch, Utah. The town is about 200 miles south of Salt Lake City.
The Panguitch Fire Department and the Garfield County Sheriff’s Office report receiving calls about the quake from the public but nothing about damages or injuries, The Deseret News reported (http://bit.ly/1G0zVCh). The quake lasted between three and four seconds, Fire Chief Dave Dodds told the newspaper.

San Francisco Is The Third Woe Or Quake (Rev 11:14)

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When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat of the next quake? 

The earthquake question comes up in two out of every three transactions that Eileen Bermingham handles. Demand for San Francisco property has hit new heights in recent years, forcing buyers to offer far above the asking price – and things don’t appear to be slowing, even in the usually sluggish early months of the year. “It’s been particularly hectic,” confirms Bermingham, an agent with Zephyr Real Estate, which sells houses all over the city.

But the earthquake question is always in the background.

Bermingham gets specific requests from clients for newer homes built under more stringent building codes, houses that have been retrofitted for earthquakes, or specific neighbourhoods that pose less risk. Many parts of the city are built on landfill, and maps highlight large swathes that are at risk of ‘liquefaction’ – the soil literally turning from solid to liquid – in the event of a large earthquake.

“A lot of it comes down to being at least knowledgeable about what you’re getting into,” Bermingham says of investing in the city. “You don’t want to find out later that you’re on a liquefaction zone.”

That’s something many people found out the hard way in 1989, when a 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck the San Francisco region. About 28,000 structures in the region were damaged by the quake, including a sizeable chunk of San Francisco’s Marina District, a neighbourhood with front-row views of the Golden Gate Bridge built on landfill poured into the bay in the early 20th century.

This unsteady ground was itself the leftover rubble of another disaster, the estimated 7.8-magnitude earthquake of 1906 that left 3,000 people dead. Though the earthquake was immense, most of the damage was caused by a fire in its aftermath that spread across nearly five square miles of the city, consuming 28,000 buildings and leaving more than half of the population homeless. Despite the century that’s since passed, this disaster has left a deep mental scar on the city. The spectre of 1906 is both a guide to prepare, and a warning of what could happen again.

And the next “big one” could come any day. Between now and 2038, there’s a 99.7% chance of a 6.7-or-larger earthquake striking somewhere in California. That’s according to a 2008 report from the US Geological Survey, which estimates that there’s a 63% probability of a big earthquake hitting the San Francisco region. The two faults flanking San Francisco – the northern San Andreas and the Hayward – have a 21% chance and a 31% chance, respectively. Clearly that’s not a sure bet, but if the experts are right, San Francisco will probably be shaking hard again sometime soon.

It’s a threat not lost on locals. Byron Davis is one of Bermingham’s clients, and he was cautious about homes in damage-prone parts of the city when he was looking – mostly because of the risk, but also because he happens to be a vibration consultant, who helps design buildings and laboratories to be extremely resistant to tiny vibrations. “My mind is tuned to think about these kinds of issues,” he says. “I don’t actually do any seismic work but I work around people that do. I hear the kind of language they use and it scares me. They talk about ‘when’, not ‘if’.”

The house Davis and his wife ended up buying was built in 1928, long before building codes were modernised in the 1970s to account for seismic issues. He says he plans to retrofit its foundations against seismic risks, but knows there’s only so much he can do in the face of a major earthquake. His house is about 200 feet from a liquefaction zone, and though he is pretty confident about its safety, he does wonder how accurately those liquefaction maps are drawn. Ultimately, he says, the choice of where to buy was driven more by the neighborhood than the thought of a future earthquake.

“There are so few houses that are for sale that you don’t get to do much picking and choosing on a basis like that,” he says.

Even the tech companies who have been swarming into the city are pushing any earthquake concerns into the background. Startups like Square and Pinterest have located their offices in the liquefaction zone that is the South of Market, or SoMa, neighbourhood, as have bigger companies like Yahoo! and Yelp. Rachel Walker, a Yelp spokesperson, brushes the earthquake concern aside, saying the company’s new headquarters, a historic 1925 building, went through “substantial renovation, including significant earthquake retrofitting”. Many other stone and brick buildings in the city have undergone similar retrofits, in which foundations are replaced or steel framing is added.

Most of the risk will likely fall on homeowners and renters. A 2013 report from the San Francisco Public Press found that there could be as many as 58,000 people living in housing units at major risk of collapse during a large earthquake. The city has a mandatory retrofit program for such buildings, but progress has been slow.

One way people can protect themselves, at least financially, is earthquake insurance – but few do, and it’s not required. Of those homeowners with insurance policies in San Francisco, less than 10% have earthquake insurance. That’s according to the California Earthquake Authority, an entity established by the state legislature to insure against earthquakes after most insurers stopped issuing policies. They were nearly bankrupted by 1994’s 6.7-magnitude Northridge earthquake in Southern California – they’d underestimated potential losses from earthquakes, and they ended up paying out more than $12bn in claims. Most of the reason so few people have earthquake insurance today is that its cost has risen to reflect the larger potential payouts from earthquake damages.

An earthquake policy can cost as much again, if not more, than a typical homeowner’s insurance policy, according to Kyle Cliff, a salesman with Liberty Mutual Insurance in the Bay Area. That can add another $1,500 a year, depending on the house. And with a 10% or 15% deductible, the policy would only pay off if there’s major damage to a home. Cliff says he sells maybe a dozen policies a year.

“Usually when I do it’s to people from out of state,” Cliff says. “They turn on the news and what do they see? Earthquakes.”

He says locals are less likely to consider the expense because they’ve experienced so many earthquakes but so little catastrophic damage. For example, Los Angeles residents woke up to a 4.4-magnitude earthquake on 17 March – large enough to rattle some nerves, but not enough to cause even minor damage.

But Glenn Pomeroy, chief executive of the California Earthquake Authority, argues it’s those catastrophic events people should really be insuring themselves against. “This insurance enterprise isn’t there to take care of the little things that might happen after a minor earthquake. We’re here to help make sure someone has the financial strength to get about their lives after their home has been substantially damaged during an

The California Earthquake Authority has issued about three-quarters of the 841,000 earthquake insurance policies in California. Pomeroy says the authority has about $10bn in claims-paying capacity – enough to handle even a devastating big one, at least for those with insurance. But in a city where 90% of homeowners aren’t insured against earthquakes, the risks are acute.

“I think there’s definitely a situation where a major earthquake could really disrupt life here,” says Patrick Otellini, Director of Earthquake Safety for the County and City of San Francisco. “San Francisco is a very resilient city. We’ve always bounced back. So I think that drive and that hope to recover is there, but those dangers are real.”

Ultimately, Otellini is confident that local retrofit requirements and the city’s 30-year Earthquake Safety Implementation Program will help the city to withstand a major earthquake – adding that if property owners are proactive about implementing mitigation measures, they’ll reduce the damage they and the city as a whole suffers, even if they don’t opt to invest in earthquake insurance.

Pomeroy, though, makes the case that the more protection people have the better. “Some people think earthquake insurance is too expensive, and if they live in a high-risk area I’m not going to try to argue that it’s cheap. But I would suggest that there’s a cost of being uninsured that outweighs the cost of that insurance policy when that event happens.”

And if the USGS is right, that major event has a very high probability of occurring. So why is it that San Franciscans, with all their experience of minor earthquakes and the occasional major one, are willing to take on the risk of living in a city so prone to major devastation?

“People don’t understand probability very well, even if you’re relatively well educated,” says David Ropeik, author of RISK! A Practical Guide for Deciding What’s Really Safe and What’s Really Dangerous in the World Around You. The problem, he says, is that numbers are abstractions, and we have trouble processing them cognitively.

“You could describe an earthquake in terms of knocking things down; that’s a tangible thing. But saying there’s a 99% chance that in the next 30 years the next big one will hit is an abstraction. The entire risk language of probability pales in its influence against the more tangible factors.”

Ropeik argues that one of the central components of risk perception is control and choice. If we’re forced to move to a risky city like San Francisco, we’ll probably be more attuned to its earthquake risk than if we choose to move there of our own volition. “If we have a choice as to whether to engage in it, we’re less afraid,” he says. Many in San Francisco have made that choice, fully conscious of its inherent risk.

“Earthquakes are just one example of how we all have a problem with risks that are very infrequent, low probability, despite their high consequence,” Ropeik says. “Cities around the world are exposed to a variety of low-likelihood but high-consequence events, and because of our psychological nature, we’re not very good at assessing the risks.”

The Third Woe: San Francisco Earthquake (Revelation 11:14)

Chilling new report predicts massive earthquake and tsunami for Pacific Northwest

It’s just a matter of time before a mega-quake hits the region between Northern California and British Columbia, where it is expected to kill more than 10,000 people and cause $32 billion in damages, the report says

 
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
 
Published: Friday, March 15, 2013, 9:36 AM
Overflow from Elk Creek flows down Access Road in Elkton Thursday Jan. 19, 2012. A new report predicts a massive earthquake and tsunami off the Pacific Northwest coast would inundate towns and cost $32 billion worth of damage.
MICHAEL SULLIVAN/AP Overflow from Elk Creek flows down Access Road in Elkton Thursday Jan. 19, 2012. A new report predicts a massive earthquake and tsunami off the Pacific Northwest coast would inundate towns and cost $32 billion worth of damage.

SALEM, Ore. — More than 10,000 people could die when — not if — a monster earthquake and tsunami occur just off the Pacific Northwest coast, researchers told Oregon legislators Thursday.
Coastal towns would be inundated. Schools, buildings and bridges would collapse, and economic damage could hit $32 billion.

These findings were published in a chilling new report by the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission, a group of more than 150 volunteer experts.

In 2011, the Legislature authorized the study of what would happen if a quake and tsunami such as the one that devastated Japan hit the Pacific Northwest.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone, just off the regional coastline, produced a mega-quake in the year 1700. Seismic experts say another monster quake and tsunami are overdue.

“This earthquake will hit us again,” Kent Yu, an engineer and chairman of the commission, told lawmakers. “It’s just a matter of how soon.”

When it hits, the report says, there will be devastation and death from Northern California to British Columbia.

Many Oregon communities will be left without water, power, heat and telephone service. Gasoline supplies will be disrupted.

The 2011 Japan quake and tsunami were a wakeup call for the Pacific Northwest. Governments have been taking a closer look at whether the region is prepared for something similar and discovering it is not.

Oregon legislators requested the study so they could better inform themselves about what needs to be done to prepare and recover from such a giant natural disaster.

An aerial view of the waterfront section of Hilo Island of Hawaii, where a tidal wave hit on April 1, 1946. Scientists say grinding geologic circumstances similar to those in Sumatra also exist just off the Pacific Northwest coast and could trigger a tsunami that could hit Northern California, Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in minutes.
ASSOCIATED PRESS An aerial view of the waterfront section of Hilo Island of Hawaii, where a tidal wave hit on April 1, 1946. Scientists say grinding geologic circumstances similar to those in Sumatra also exist just off the Pacific Northwest coast and could trigger a tsunami that could hit Northern California, Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in minutes.

The report says that geologically, Oregon and Japan are mirror images. Despite the devastation in Japan, that country was more prepared than Oregon because it had spent billions on technology to reduce the damage, the report says.

Jay Wilson, the commission’s vice chairman, visited Japan and said he was profoundly affected as he walked through villages ravaged by the tsunami.

“It was just as if these communities were ghost towns, and for the most part there was nothing left,” said Wilson, who works for the Clackamas County emergency management department.

Wilson told legislators that there was a similar event 313 years ago in the Pacific Northwest, and “we’re well within the window for it to happen again.”

Experts representing a variety of state agencies, industries and organizations expanded on the report’s findings and shared with lawmakers how they have begun planning.

Sue Graves, a safety coordinator for the Lincoln County School District, told lawmakers that high school students in her district take semester-long classes that teach CPR and other survival techniques in the wake of a giant earthquake. The class teaches students to “duck, cover and hold” when the ground starts shaking.

Maree Wacker, chief executive officer of the American Red Cross of Oregon, said it is important for residents to have their own contingency plans for natural disasters.

“Oregonians as individuals are underprepared,” she said.

The Third Woe: San Francisco Earthquake (Revelation 11:14)

Huge Earthquake Could Hit San Francisco Any Day: Report

 
Posted: 10/14/2014 4:01 pm EDT Updated: 10/14/2014 4:59 pm EDT
A new study suggests the San Francisco Bay Area is due for another major earthquake.

According to the data, four major faults in the region are moving along the surface and are primed to collide in a huge way. These stressed faults “are locked and loaded,” geophysicist James Lienkaemper, lead author of the study published online Tuesday in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, told the Wall Street Journal.

However, Lienkaemper added, “nature doesn’t tell us when she’s going to pull the trigger.”

The faults of concern, all of which run under urban areas, are the Hayward (between Suisun Bay and San Jose), the Calaveras (from Hollister to Danville), the Green Valley (near Richmond and Fremont) and the Rodgers Creek (in Sonoma County).

Lienkaemper explained to NBC News that if the faults are locked as they appear, one of them will eventually give way as the Pacific Plate moves past the North American Plate, causing quakes anywhere from magnitude 6.8 to 7.1. That’s right in the range of the Loma Prieta earthquake 25 years ago, which took 63 lives.

Lienkaemper estimates a nearly 70 percent chance that one of those faults will pop within the next three decades, and he named the Hayward fault as the most likely to rupture.

A scientist who didn’t work on the study confirmed that the findings seemed plausible.

“Given how long ago they had their last earthquakes, they are more than ready to produce a major earthquake again now,” Roland Burgmann, a University of California, Berkeley geophysicist told the San Francisco Chronicle.

Napa County is still recovering from an Aug. 24 earthquake, which killed one resident and injured approximately 100. Measuring at magnitude 6.1, the quake was the largest to hit the Bay Area since Loma Prieta.

Californians Are Going To Need More ETERNAL Insurance

Covered for a quake? Napa’s temblor has homeowners wondering if they need insurance

 
San Andrea Fault - The Third Woe

San Andrea Fault – The Third Woe

When Virgil Chapman was jolted awake by Napa’s earthquake early last Sunday morning, he knew it was bad. Trapped in the “pitch-black” darkness, he couldn’t move beneath the weight of a bookcase, a TV and a heavy dresser that had collapsed, pinning him in bed.

“It took me half an hour to get unburied in my bedroom,” said Chapman, a retired RN, who lives half a mile from Napa’s downtown.

Luckily, Chapman and his wife weren’t hurt. Since then, they’ve been sweeping up debris and assessing their losses, which include broken mirrors and lamps, cracks in their kitchen walls, a ruined TV and a half-destroyed chimney that tumbled bricks into their side yard.

The worst part? Chapman’s earthquake policy may not cover any of his losses.

“It’s a big joke. I’ve been paying expensive premiums for years, and now I’m finding out it was no good,” the 69-year-old retiree said.

It wasn’t until a call to his claims adjuster, Chapman said, that he learned his policy carries a $50,000 deductible. Having survived several quakes that caused damage in his 1950s-era neighborhood in the last three decades, Chapman figures the cost of his home’s repairs and replacements will “probably run into the thousands of dollars” but won’t reach his deductible amount, meaning he’ll have to pay out of pocket.

As Napa Valley residents and business owners clean up and tally damages from last Sunday’s 6.0 earthquake, many are coming to grips with their earthquake insurance coverage – or lack thereof.

In California, earthquake policies for homeowners typically have high deductibles and good-sized premiums. According to the state Department of Insurance, the average statewide premium is $800, but it varies widely depending on a home’s age, geographic location, type of foundation, construction and other factors. Chapman’s premiums for his 11/2-story house in earthquake-prone Napa ran about $900 to $1,000 a year, he said.

Generally, the deductible for earthquake policies is 10 percent to 15 percent of the home’s assessed value. If a home is valued at $225,000, for instance, the deductible could be as much as $33,750.
Only 10 percent of California homeowners and businesses that bought property insurance policies in 2013 had earthquake insurance, according to the state Department of Insurance.

But insurance experts say homeowners shouldn’t assume the worst about their coverage, especially after a disaster.

“They should always ask for a claims adjuster to come out and check the foundation and things that aren’t visible,” said Lynne McChristian, disaster response coordinator for the New York-based Insurance Information Institute. “There may be some structural issues that a homeowner isn’t trained to recognize, but a claims adjuster is.” Those unseen damages could up the amount of repairs and go toward that deductible amount.

McChristian, who was in Napa on Monday meeting with insurance officials and homeowners, said calling a claims adjuster to evaluate your home after a disaster is essential. “It’s what you pay those premiums for,” she said.

Like all insurance, the higher the deductible, the lower the premium, but it means the homeowner shares in the cost of the claim.

But the deductible doesn’t apply in every situation. D’Anne Ousley, spokeswoman for the state Department of Insurance, said homeowners with earthquake coverage are entitled to $1,500 for emergency repairs and “loss of use” when they’re unable to stay in their home because it’s uninhabitable. She said there is no deductible applied in those cases.

And even for those without earthquake coverage, if a fire erupts because of the earthquake, their regular homeowner’s policy can pay for damages.

Earthquakes like last week’s are “a teachable moment,” said Nicole Ganley, spokeswoman for the Association of California Insurance Companies, “because there are things you can do to mitigate damage to your home.” Among them: strapping the water heater, securing your foundation, and bolting bookcases and large-screen TVs to the wall.

Do a home inventory, walking room-by-room to describe furniture, electronics, closets and drawers. Take a video or photos. Do the same outside in your yard and garage. Having a complete home inventory can make filing a claim considerably easier in the event of disaster.

Homeowners with any kind of insurance also should keep their insurance agent aware of any home improvements, such as upgraded granite or tile or added square footage. If those details aren’t included in your insurance policy coverage, you may be underinsured.

“Have an annual conversation with your insurance agent to make sure you’re covered and that your policy is keeping up with your needs,” said McChristian of the insurance institute. “It’s time well spent and doesn’t cost you a nickel.”

And, she urged homeowners to remember: Buying insurance is protection against devastating losses. “It may not seem worth it for minor damage, but it is designed for catastrophic loss, in case your house is a total loss.”

The Napa quake could have been much worse and should be viewed as a “wake-up call,” McChristian said. “People always say after an event, ‘I didn’t know.’”

Warning of the Third Woe (Revelation 8:13)

California earthquake a cautionary reminder of West Coast’s volatility
TDN.com

Warning of the Third Woe

Warning of the Third Woe

The 6.0 magnitude earthquake that struck California’s Napa Valley wine country Sunday morning has scientists reminding everyone of the potential for similar quakes here in the Pacific Northwest.

Usually it’s the Cascadia Subduction Zone, the huge undersea fault that causes magnitude 9.0 earthquakes off the Northwest Coast every 300 to 500 years, that gets the most attention. But seismologist Bill Steele from the University of Washington in Seattle said even smaller quakes could cause significant damage in Cowlitz County.

Steele said the California quake caused buildings with unreinforced masonry to collapse, injuring bystanders with falling bricks and debris. Buildings with unreinforced masonry in Longview and elsewhere would be at risk of similar damage.

“I think it’s time we start thinking about how we are going to strengthen these buildings or remove some of them before an earthquake does,” Steele said.

Wet, sandy soils — like most of the lowland Longview-Kelso area — tend to magnify shock waves. This makes structures on them more prone to collapse from liquefaction — which occurs when saturated soil is shaken and turns to quicksand.

The February 2011 magnitude 6.3 quake in Christchurch, New Zealand, killed 185 people and injured thousands more and provided a valuable lesson to scientists.

“We learned from Christ Church that magnitude 6 earthquakes can be devastating. If you have poor soils and poor building types, particularly unreinforced masonry, magnitude 6 can produce … ground motion that can break and displace these bricks so that the building becomes unstable and collapses,” Steele said.

Magnitude 6 earthquakes are not a rarity in Washington and Oregon. The last one in Western Washington occurred in 2001, when a 6.8 temblor north of Olympia injured 400 people and was the most expensive natural disaster in Washington history. Even closer to home, a 5.2 earthquake along the Mount St. Helens seismic zone caused violent shaking here on Feb. 14, 1981. Seismologists believed somewhat stronger quakes are possible along the fault.

How to be earthquake-ready

• Secure ceiling fans and light fixtures using bracing wire. Anchor the bookcases, file cabinets, loose shelving and entertainment centers to walls.
• Secure china, collectibles, trophies, and other shelf items with museum putty. Install a lip or blocking device to prevent books or other articles from falling off shelves.
• Secure televisions, computers, and stereos with buckles and safety straps.
• Ensure appliances have flexible gas or electrical connections.
• Strap the top and bottom of a water heater to wall studs.
• Know how to turn off the gas supply.
• Relocate flammable liquids to a garage or outside storage location.

Source: Federal Alliance for Safe Homes

The Third Woe (San Francisco) Awaits (Revelation 8:13)

California Waits For The Big One

San Francisco Earthquake August 2014

San Francisco Earthquake August 2014
Boogy-boarding down a flight of stairs during an earthquake is not a wise thing to do. Just ask Jewel McGuinnes, 12, of Eureka, California.

“A friend and I were at my house and we were boogy-boarding down the stairs,” says Jewel. “About halfway down, tremors knocked me off my board. Next thing I knew, I was sitting at the foot of the stairs and my friend was screaming, ‘Earthquake!’”

The quake that knocked Jewel off her boogy board last April has been followed by even bigger quakes. On June 28, 1992, the most powerful quake to hit the U.S. in 40 years struck Landers, California. It measured 7.4 on the Richter scale. Hours later, another big quake hit Bear Valley, 20 miles away. The two quakes caused one death and millions of dollars in damage. If the quakes had struck a big city, such as Los Angeles, the toll would have been higher. The quakes, say scientists, are just a reminder of “the Big One” still to come.

 

Earthquakes: Slips And Faults

The Big One is the name that scientists have given to a severe earthquake expected to strike California within the next 30 years.

What causes earthquakes? Scientists explain that the earth’s crust, or outer shell, is made up of massive slabs of rock called plates. These plates, which can be as big as a continent or as small as a city, are constantly shifting. You can visualize the shifting of these plates by looking at what happens when Arctic ice floes meet each other. Some floes break apart, some slide partially over the other, and some simply grind past each other.

Most earthquakes occur along a fault — a crack in the earth’s crust. One of the most visible is California’s San Andreas Fault, where the Pacific Plate slides past the North American Plate. When two plates slip by each other, tremendous tension builds up. The tension is released in violent jerks or shock waves, which we call an earthquake.

The Big One; still waiting on the evening of October 17, 1989, residents of San Francisco thought that the Big One had struck.

Minutes before the start of the third game of the World Series between the Oakland A’s and the San Francisco Giants, the city was rocked and rattled by a magnitude 7.1 earthquake. Buildings and bridges collapsed, fires broke out, and 59 people were killed.

Scientist later said that this quake was not the Big One. In fact, the 1989 San Francisco quake may seem like small potatoes when compared to the huge quake that scientists predict is to come.

What makes the Big One such a threat, says geologist Virgil Frizzell, is that it probably will occur in or near a major city in northern or southern California. Two likely candidates are San Francisco and Los Angeles. Such a quake would cause much more damage than the 1989 San Francisco quake. That quake, says Frizzell, had its center at a location 100 kilometers from San Francisco.

Not just in California about 40 moderate and thousands of minor earthquakes occur every year. “Remember, it’s not just in California that earthquakes happen,” Frizzell says. “They are happening every day, all over the world.”

There is nothing that people can do to control the destructive power of an earthquake. But there are steps that we can take to limit the amount of damage and danger from an earthquake.

Making building codes tougher is one way to limit damage. By requiring builders to use safer materials and construction methods, much of the damage from quakes can be prevented.

Homeowners can make their homes safer during a quake by securing water heaters, cabinet doors, and gas lines.

Do Californians like Jewel worry about the Big One? “Well (after the April 25 quake), I was scared to go to bed,” Jewel says. “Since then, whenever I feel a tremor, I get worried. But more than anything, I am much more on my toes, much more aware.”

Richter Scale – Typical Damage:8 – Total damage. 7 – Buildings collapse. 6 – Buildings crack and things fall off shelves. 5 – Furniture and pictures move. 3-4 – People feel a rumble and hear noise. 1-2 – Most people do not notice anything.

San Francisco Will Be the Third Woe (Revelation 8:13)

Strong Earthquake Shakes Bay Area in California

NAPA, Calif. — A strong earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.0 hit the San Francisco Bay Area early Sunday morning, causing injuries and damage in Napa and knocking out power to thousands of people across the region.
The temblor struck about 10 miles northwest of American Canyon — six miles south of Napa — around 3:20 a.m., according to the United States Geological Survey. It was the most powerful earthquake to hit the Bay Area since the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, which collapsed the Bay Bridge. At least four aftershocks were reported Sunday.
Queen of the Valley Medical Center in Napa treated more than 87 patients in its emergency room on Sunday morning, said a spokeswoman for the hospital, Vanessa DeGier. The injuries were largely limited to cuts and abrasions, Ms. DeGier said. Most patients were released after treatment, but some people were also admitted for more severe injuries — including a hip fracture and a heart attack. One patient, a child said to be in critical condition, was airlifted to a hospital in Santa Rosa.
Four homes were destroyed by a fire at a mobile home park, Napa officials said, and two others were still burning. At at least two buildings downtown were severely damaged. About 50 gas main breaks were reported, along with at least one water main break, Napa officials said. Portions of two highways, one of which buckled about a foot during the earthquake, were closed on Sunday morning, and power remained out to more than 60,000 customers.
Two residents of the mobile home park, Lynda and Bob Castell-Blanch, both 60, said they were jarred away by a loud thump and roll.
“It was violent,” Mr. Castell-Blanch said. “Things were flying all over the place. There was woman screaming from one of the houses, so loud it was total mayhem.”
The couple said they had enough time to gather their cats and his vintage guitars before evacuating. “That was all we had time for,” Mr. Castell-Blanch said, while they were trying to buy water at a store down the road from the mobile home park.
The shelves at the store, the Ranch Market, had been emptied into the aisles. The smell of wine wafted throughout.
Arik Housley, the store’s owner, estimated at least $100,000 in damage at the two markets he owns in the area. He said that, like many people, he did not carry earthquake insurance because of the high premium.
At a restaurant next door, workers could be seen sweeping up broken glass and spilled wine.
Janet Upton, a resident of Napa in the wine country northeast of San Francisco, said she awoke early Sunday morning to violent shaking and the sound of loud crashing all around her, soon followed by rolling waves.
“The house is just trashed,” said Ms. Upton, who is a spokeswoman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection and is married to Scott Upton, the Napa County fire chief.
“My kitchen is a wreck; it’s all down” Ms. Upton said. “The TV, all the stuff on the walls. A huge dresser just barely missed my daughter.”
Buildings across the city were damaged, including the county courthouse, a historic building.
“There’s collapses, fires,” the Napa fire captain, Doug Bridewell, told The Associated Press as he stood in front of large pieces of masonry that broke loose from a turn-of-the-century office building where a fire had just been extinguished. “That’s the worst shaking I’ve ever been in.”
Mr. Bridewell, who said he had to climb over fallen furniture in his own home to check on his family before reporting to duty, said he was starting to see more reports of injuries.
In her neighborhood, Ms. Upton said the chimneys of several homes were knocked off, while the front of another home had sheared off. The entire area smelled strongly of gas, she said. The sound of sirens continued unabated for two hours after the earthquake, she added, but it had since quieted down.
“We helped all neighbors turn their gas off,” Ms. Upton said. “I’m just grateful my family and neighbors are all OK.”
At least two aftershocks shook the area on Sunday morning, though neither was as strong as the initial earthquake, which hit between two major faults at a depth of 6.7 miles below the surface, according to the Geological Survey.
California transportation officials were still examining the region’s bridges for any damage, but they appeared to have survived the earthquake unscathed.
“No abnormalities have been found on any of the bridges at this time,” said Tamie McGowen, a spokeswoman for the California Department of Transportation.
The geological agency said the depth of the earthquake was just less than seven miles, and numerous small aftershocks had occurred in the Napa wine country.
“A quake of that size in a populated area is, of course, widely felt throughout that region,” Randy Baldwin, a geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey in Golden, Colo., told The Associated Press. “The 6.0 is a sizable quake for this area. It’s a shallow quake. It’s about 6 miles deep. We received hundreds of reports on our website from people that felt it in the surrounding area.”

Jim Kerstetter reported from Napa, Calif., and Ian Lovett from Los Angeles.  Rick Rojas contributed reporting from New York.