Nuclear Ban Conference = FAIL (Rev 16)

vanunu-iran-israeli-nukes-cartoon

Middle East nuclear weapons ban proposal stumbles at U.N.

Tue May 12, 2015 1:50am BST

By Louis Charbonneau
Western officials said Arab proposals drafted by Egypt for a major nuclear non-proliferation conference at United Nations headquarters in New York could torpedo the process and push Israel to walk away
Israel neither confirms nor denies the widespread assumption that it controls the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal. Israel, which has never joined the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), agreed to take part in NPT meetings Monday as an observer, ending a 20-year absence.
The head of Egypt’s delegation, Assistant Foreign Minister Hashim Badr, rejected any suggestion that Cairo was a spoiler and insisted that he wanted to move the process forward, not kill it.
“Egypt has come to New York to secure a conference (on banning nuclear weapons in the Middle East), we want a conference,” Badr said in an interview. “This is a key issue for Egypt for a long time, for decades, since 1974-75.” 
Egypt, in a proposal officially backed by all Arab countries and outlined in a “working paper” submitted by Arab delegations, called for Jaakko Laajava, the U.N. coordinator for organising the conference, to be dismissed. The 2010 NPT review meeting had called for a Middle East conference in 2012, but it never took place.
Egypt’s proposal said U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon should convene a conference on a regional ban of weapons of mass destruction within 180 days after the NPT conference ends on May 22 and demanded that Israel immediately join the NPT as a non-nuclear arms state.
Despite the official backing of Arab delegations, several diplomats, including two Arabs, told Reuters that Saudi Arabia, Iraq and United Arab Emirates have reservations about Egypt’s proposal. “Egypt wants to be in charge,” a diplomat said.
Israel’s delegation declined to comment on the proposal.
The Jewish state has said it would consider inspections and controls under the NPT only if was at peace with its Arab neighbours and Iran.
Washington and Israel say it is Iran’s nuclear programme that threatens the region. Iran says its programme is peaceful. It is negotiating with world powers to curb it in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
Finnish diplomat Laajava managed to get Israel, Arab states and Iran to attend a preparatory session in the Swiss city of Glion in October 2013. Western officials cite that as progress.
Washington has not given up hope. “We have seen significant progress in the regional consultations that have taken place,” a U.S. official said.
Arab delegates said Israel was not serious about a conference on banning weapons of mass destruction. Israel has conditioned its participation on an agenda being agreed in advance and says it wants to discuss regional security, conventional weapons and the Middle East peace process.
(Reporting by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Grant McCool and Ken Wills)

Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty Was Just A Short Delay Of The Prophecy (Rev 16)

NPT spoof

 

BY RAMESH THAKUR

In contrast to the total and scandalous failure of its 2005 predecessor, the Eighth Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference of May 2010 was a modest success.
By the end of 2012, as reported in my Centre’s inaugural “Nuclear Weapons: The State of Play” report, much of this sense of optimism had evaporated. By the end of 2014, as our followup report “Nuclear Weapons: The State of Play 2015″ documents, the fading optimism has given way to pessimism.
North Korea conducted its third nuclear test in early 2013 and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is yet to enter into force.
Cyber threats to nuclear weapons systems have intensified, outer space remains at risk of nuclearization, and the upsurge of geopolitical tensions over the crisis in Ukraine produced flawed conclusions about the folly of giving up nuclear weapons on the one hand, and open reminders about Russia’s substantial nuclear arsenal, on the other.
As part of the Global Attitudes survey conducted by the U.S. Pew Research Center from March 17 to June 5, 2014, a total of 48,643 respondents in 44 countries were asked which one of the following five poses the gravest threat to the world: nuclear weapons, inequality, religious-ethnic hatred, environmental pollution, or AIDS and other diseases?
No Latin American country has nuclear weapons The continent’s anti-nuclear commitment was reinforced by the negotiation of the regional nuclear-weapon-free zone in 1967 under the Treaty of Tlatelolco, which consolidates and deepens the NPT prohibitions on getting the bomb.
Since then virtually the entire Southern Hemisphere has embraced additional comparable zones in the South Pacific, Southeast Asia and Africa.
Consequently looking out at the world from our vantage point, we see no security upsides by way of benefits from nuclear weapons; only risks.
Indeed it helps to conceptualize the nuclear weapons challenge in the language of risks. Originally many countries acquired the bomb in order to help manage national security risks.
As the four famous strategic heavyweights of Henry Kissinger, Sam Nunn, William Perry and George Shultz — all card-carrying realists — have argued in a series of five influential articles in The Wall Street Journal between 2007 and 2013, the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism posed by the existence of nuclear weapons far outweigh their modest contributions to security since the end of the Cold War.
Viewed through this lens, the nuclear risks agenda has four components:
• Risk management.
We must ensure that existing weapons stockpiles are not used; that all nuclear weapons and materials are secured against theft and leakage to rogue actors like terrorist groups; and that all nuclear reactors and plants have fail-safe safety measures in place with respect to designs, controls, disposal and accident response systems.
• Risk reduction.
This means strengthening the stability-enhancing features of deterrence, such as robust command and control systems and deployment on submarines. As part of this, it would help if Russia and the U.S. took their approximately 1,800 warheads off high-alert, ready to launch within minutes of threats being supposedly detected.
If other countries abandoned interest in things like tactical nuclear weapons that have to be deployed on the forward edges of potential battlefields and require some pre-delegation of authority to use to battlefield commanders. Because any use of nuclear weapons could be catastrophic for planet Earth, the decision must be restricted to the highest political and military authorities.
• Risk minimization• .
There is no national security objectives that Russia and the U.S. could not meet with a total arsenal of under 500 nuclear warheads each deployed in the air (a few), on land (some), and at sea (most). And if all the others froze their arsenals at current levels, this would give us a global stockpile of 2,000 bombs instead of the current total of nearly 16,400.
Ratifying and bringing into force the CTBT, concluding a new fissile material cutoff treaty, banning the nuclear weaponization of outer space, respecting one another’s sensitivities on missile defense programs and conventional military imbalances etc. would all contribute to minimizing risks of reversals and setbacks.
None of these steps would jeopardize the national security of any of the nuclear-armed states; each would enhance regional and international security modestly; all in combination would greatly strengthen global security.
• Risk elimination.
Successive blue ribbon international commissions, from the Canberra Commission through the Tokyo Forum, Blix Commission, and Evans-Kawaguchi Commission, have emphatically reaffirmed three core propositions.
The only guarantee of zero nuclear weapons risk, therefore, is to move to zero nuclear weapons possession by a carefully managed process.

Sulemani Correct: Syria Belongs To The Shia Crescent

Iran’s Suleimani: IS, U.S. ‘Doomed To Failure’ in Syria

The commander of Iran’s powerful Qods Force, Qassem Suleimani (center), attends a remembrance ceremony for martyrs from that branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in Iran on Oct 20.
The commander of Iran’s powerful Qods Force, Qassem Suleimani, has said that both the Islamic State (IS) group and the United States are “doomed to failure” in Iraq and Syria.

The Qods Force is the branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) responsible for overseas operations. In recent weeks, Iran has gone to lengths to demonstrate that Qods Force commander Suleimani (and, by extension, Tehran) are playing an important role in combating IS in Iraq and Syria.

At the same time, Iran has also emphasized that it believes the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State is both ineffective and part of an attempt by the United States and its allies to gain regional power.

In his latest comments, Suleimani effectively dismisses both the United States and IS as being part of the same group of enemies, who oppose both Iran and Shi’a Islam, which Iran considers itself as representing.

Defa Press quotes Suleimani as saying that he was certain “any venture, be it large or small, from America’s campaigns to IS’s acts of terror, have no other outcome than failure, because since the beginning they lack truth.”

Suleimani went on to clarify that all movements that were against “Islam, Iran and Shi’ism” were lacking in the quest for truth, while Iran’s success was due to its “inner truth”.

Terrorists had always failed in the end, the Qods Force commander added.

Iran’s Fars News, affiliated with the IRGC, also quoted Suleimani as saying that the United States’ “solution” in Iraq    and Syria would “not lead to victory”.

“We have all seen in Syria that the measures they adopted were not fruitful,” he said.

Suleimani’s comments echo those of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has repeatedly accused the United States and its allies of creating IS in order to sow discord among Sunni and Shi’a Muslims.

Khamenei has said that the West’s “creation of IS” is also intended to counter the “Islamic Awakening,” a term used by the supreme leader’s camp to describe what Khamenei believes is a spreading of the values of its 1979 Islamic Revolution — including the concept of “resistance” against the West — to the region.

Fars’ English service went one step further in linking Suleimani’s comments about the U.S.-led coalition against IS to the Islamic Republic’s concept of the “resistance,” noting that the deputy secretary of Lebanese Hizballah had previously commented on “U.S., Israeli, and Takfiri plots” against Iran.

Iranian military and diplomatic figures have been quoted as saying that a “resistance” movement similar to Hizballah has sprung up in Syria.

Earlier this month, Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Mohammad Reza Rauf Sheibani, praised Syrian “popular militias” for fighting “IS terrorists” and said that Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah had called for such a “resistance” against IS.

— Joanna Paraszczuk

The Great Babylon About Ready To Fall?

CIA Insider Warns: “25-Year Great Depression is About to Strike America”

The Prophecy1

By MONEY MORNING STAFF REPORTS

You will want to remember this date April 19, 2015.

According to one of the top minds in the U.S. Intelligence Community, that is when the United States will enter the darkest economic period in our nation’s history.

A 25-year Great Depression.

 

And alarmingly, he and his colleagues believe the evidence they’ve uncovered proves this outcome is impossible to avoid.

In an exclusive interview with Money Morning, Jim Rickards, the CIA’s Financial Threat and Asymmetric Warfare Advisor, has stepped forward to warn the American people that time is running out to prepare for this $100 trillion meltdown.

“Everybody knows we have a dangerous level of debt. Everybody knows the Fed has recklessly printed trillions of dollars. These are secrets to no one,” he said.

“But all signs are now flashing bright red that our chickens are about to come home to roost.”

During the discussion, Rickards shared a series of dangerous signals he fears reveals an economy that has reached a super critical state.

One of the signals the CIA is most concerned with is the Misery Index.

Decades back this unique warning sign was created for determining how close our country was to a social collapse. It simply adds the true inflation rate with the true unemployment rate.

However, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly changed the way the Misery Index has been calculated over the years. Which Rickards believes is now being used to cover up the true scope of the problem.

“Today you rarely hear the government talk about the Misery Index with the public,” Rickards said. “The reason is they may not want you to know the truth. And the truth is, the Misery Index has reached more dangerous levels than we saw prior to the Great Depression. This is a signal of a complex system that’s about to collapse.”

During the shocking interview Rickards revealed the 5 dangerous “flashpoints” the Intelligence Community is closely monitoring that they believe will unleash this catastrophe.

And he also described how it would all unfold.

“I expect the first phase will appear as a nearly instantaneous 70% stock market crash. From the outside, nobody will see it coming.” Rickards explained.

“Once it becomes clear that it’s not a flash crash – it’s a systemic meltdown in the economy itself, that’s when the gravity of the situation will sink in. And there will be no digging out from it.

“$100 trillion is a conservative estimate for the damage. A lot can happen over 25-years as our country struggles to recover from this.”

Along with his CIA responsibilities, Jim Rickards has spent more than 3 decades on Wall Street as a leading international investment banker, hedge fund manager, and as the architect behind the technology nicknamed “the brains” of the NASDAQ.

This unique skillset has placed him at the center of some of the most important events in recent history.

For instance, Rickards helped negotiate an end to the Iranian Hostage Crisis in the early 1980s.

Then, in the late 1990s, despite being one of its most outspoken critics, the Federal Reserve called on him to step in to prevent a $1.25 trillion Wall Street meltdown during the Long Term Capital Management crisis.

And after 9-11, the CIA tasked him with tracking down potential terrorist insider trading that took place prior to the attacks.

This led to him helping lead a sensitive operation called Project Prophecy.

The mission was to use the financial markets to predict pending national security threats from terrorists, rival nations, and from internal weaknesses lurking inside our economy.

The system he built through Project Prophecy proved its accuracy on August 7, 2006, when it detected the warning signs of an impending terrorist attack.

Three days later, in London, a plot to blow up 10 U.S. passenger jets was thwarted. And 24 Pakistani extremists were arrested.

However, Rickards now warns that the next attack is going to come from within. And he is not alone in his fears.

Recently, a sensitive report containing the consensus view of all 16 branches of the U.S. Intelligence Committee surfaced.

It revealed that these agencies have already begun to jointly estimate the impact of “The fall of the dollar as the global reserve currency.”

 

And our reign as the leading superpower being annihilated in a way “equivalent to the end of the British Empire in the post-World War II period.”

The nightmarish endgame presented in this report involved “a worldwide economic breakdown and an extended period of global anarchy.”

And Jim Rickards believes we can no longer stop this, we can only prepare for it.

“Look at it this way. Americans are standing at the bottom of a very tall mountain – Mt. Everest, Mt. Kilimanjaro…they look up and see an avalanche barreling down.

Determining the one snowflake that started this chaos shouldn’t be our focus. Recognizing the severity of the situation and moving to safety should be,” Rickards explained.

The question we should all be asking ourselves now is “what if he’s right?”

Iran Talk Failures Would Spell Disaster

Nuclear talks failure would be a disaster: Iran

Munich, 1 days ago

Image
Iran’s foreign minister held rare private talks with his US counterpart on Sunday and said it would be a “disaster” if Tehran did not turn a provisional agreement to defuse a decade-old dispute over its nuclear programme into a permanent deal.
In a sign of the thawing climate between the Islamic Republic and the West, Iran’s Mohammad Javad Zarif said he had held bilateral talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry, as well as with other ministers from the six powers negotiating with Tehran, during a three-day security conference in Munich.
His talks looked forward to negotiations starting in Vienna on February 18 when Iran and the six powers will attempt over a period of six months to build on an interim agreement on Tehran’s nuclear activities to reach a definitive deal.
“What I can promise is that we will go to those negotiations with the political will and good faith to reach an agreement because it would be foolish for us to only bargain for six months,” Zarif told the conference after his meeting with Kerry.
“That would be a disaster for everybody – to start a process and then to abruptly end it within six months,” he said.
Zarif said Iran and the West had an historic opportunity to improve relations. “I think we need to seize it,” he said.
Iran insists its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful but Western countries have long suspected Tehran of seeking the ability to develop a nuclear weapon.
Under a landmark preliminary deal with the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany sealed last November, Iran agreed to halt its most sensitive nuclear operations in return for winning some relief from sanctions.
The deal has lessened the risk of Israel or the United States launching a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent Tehran acquiring a nuclear bomb.
SANCTIONS
Kerry stressed to Zarif the importance of both sides negotiating in good faith and of Iran abiding by its commitments under the November deal, a US State Department official said.
The US and the European Union have suspended some sanctions on Iran under the interim deal, but Kerry told Zarif the US would continue to enforce other sanctions.
Kerry and Zarif have met several times since the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate, last June paved the way for the thaw in ties with the West after years of confrontation and hostile rhetoric.
Zarif said Iran was prepared to address important outstanding questions in the nuclear negotiations but said there was still a lack of trust on both sides, including mistrust among Iranians about the West’s intentions.
Zarif told Reuters in an interview on Saturday however that Iran was not prepared to give up research on centrifuges used to purify uranium as part of a final nuclear deal.
Zarif held out an olive branch to Saudi Arabia, Tehran’s regional rival, saying he was ready to start talks at any time with Riyadh on improving relations.
“I believe Iran and Saudi Arabia share a common interest in a secure environment,” he said. “Neither one of us will benefit from sectarian divisions, neither one of us will benefit from extremism in this region … We can work together in order to have a safer neighbourhood. There is no need for rivalry.”
The head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Yukiya Amano, said possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear programme needed to be clarified and he said his agency also wanted to clarify the issue of small amounts of polonium-210 that had been produced by the Tehran research reactor.
“Polonium can be used for civil purposes like nuclear batteries but can also be used for a neutron source for nuclear weapons. We would like to clarify this issue too,” Amano told the Munich Security Conference. – Reuters