Earthquake activity in the New York City area


Although the eastern United States is not as

seismically active

as regions near plate boundaries, large and damaging earthquakes do occur there. Furthermore, when these rare eastern U.S. earthquakes occur, the areas affected by them are much larger than for western U.S. earthquakes of the same magnitude.

Thus, earthquakes represent at least a moderate hazard to East Coast cities, including New York City and adjacent areas of very high population density.

Seismicity in the vicinity of New York City. Data are from the U.S. Geological Survey (Top, USGS) and the National Earthquake Information Center (Bottom, NEIC). In the top figure, closed red circles indicate 1924-2006 epicenters and open black circles indicate locations of the larger earthquakes that occurred in 1737, 1783 and 1884. Green lines indicate the trace of the Ramapo fault.

As can be seen in the maps of earthquake activity in this region(shown in the figure),

seismicity is scattered throughout most of the New York City area, with some hint of a concentration of earthquakes in the area surrounding Manhattan Island.

The largest known earthquake in this region occurred in 1884 and had a magnitude of approximately 5.For this earthquake, observations of fallen bricks and cracked plaster were reported from eastern Pennsylvania to central Connecticut, and the maximum intensity reported was at two sites in western Long Island (Jamaica, New York and Amityville, New York).

Two other earthquakes of approximately magnitude 5 occurred in this region in 1737 and 1783. The figure on the right shows maps of the distribution of earthquakes of magnitude 3 and greater that occurred in this region from 1924 to 2010, along with locations of the larger earthquakes that occurred in 1737, 1783 and 1884.


The NYC area is part of the geologically complex structure of the Northern

Appalachian Mountains. This complex structure was formed during the past half billion years when the Earth’s crust underlying the Northern Appalachians was the site of two major geological episodes, each of which has left its imprint on the NYC area bedrock.

Between about 450 million years ago and about 250 million years ago, the Northern Appalachian region was affected by a continental collision, in which the ancient African continent collided with the ancient North American continent to form the supercontinent Pangaea.

Beginning about 200 million years ago, the present-day Atlantic ocean began to form as plate tectonic forces began to


apart the continent of Pangaea. The last major episode of geological activity to affect the


in the New York area occurred about 100 million years ago, during the Mesozoic era, when continental rifting that led to the opening of the present-day Atlantic ocean formed the Hartford and


Mesozoic rift basins.

Earthquake rates in the northeastern United States are about 50 to 200 times lower than in California, but

the earthquakes that do occur in the northeastern U.S. are typically felt over a much broader region than earthquakes of the same magnitude in the western U.S.This means the area of damage from an earthquake in the northeastern U.S. could be larger than the area of damage caused by an earthquake of the same magnitude in the western U.S. The cooler rocks in the northeastern U.S. contribute to the seismic energy propagating as much as ten times further than in the warmer rocks of California.

A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt as far as 100 km (60 mi) from its

epicenter, but it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake, although uncommon, can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from its epicenter, and can cause damage as far away as 40 km (25 mi) from its epicenter. Earthquakes stronger than about magnitude 5.0 generate ground motions that are strong enough to be damaging in the epicentral area.

At well-studied plate boundaries like the

San Andreas fault

system in California, scientists can often make observations that allow them to identify the specific fault on which an earthquake took place. In contrast, east of the Rocky Mountains this is rarely the case.

The NYC area is far from the boundaries of the North American plate, which are in the center of the Atlantic Ocean, in the Caribbean Sea, and along the west coast of North America. The seismicity of the northeastern U.S. is generally considered to be due to ancient zones of weakness that are being reactivated in the present-day stress field. In this model, pre-existing faults that were formed during ancient geological episodes persist in the intraplate crust, and the earthquakes occur when the present-day stress is released along these zones of weakness.

The stress that causes the earthquakes is generally considered to be derived from present-day rifting at the Mid-Atlantic ridge.

Earthquakes and geologically mapped faults in the Northeastern U.S.

The northeastern U.S. has many known faults, but virtually all of the known faults have not been active for perhaps 90 million years or more. Also, the locations of the known faults are not well determined at earthquake depths. Accordingly, few (if any) earthquakes in the region can be unambiguously linked to known faults.

Given the current geological and seismological data, it is difficult to determine if a known fault in this region is still active today and could produce a modern earthquake. As in most other areas east of the Rocky Mountains, the best guide to earthquake hazard in the northeastern U.S. is probably the locations of the past earthquakes themselves.

The Ramapo fault and other New York City area faults

The Ramapo Fault, which marks the western boundary of the Newark rift basin, has been argued to be a major seismically active feature of this region,but it is difficult to discern the extent to which the Ramapo fault (or any other specific mapped fault in the area) might be any more of a source of future earthquakes than any other parts of the region. The Ramapo Fault zone spans more than 185 miles (300 kilometers) in

New York,

New Jersey, and

Pennsylvania. It is a system of


between the northern

Appalachian Mountains

and Piedmont areas to the east. This fault is perhaps the best known fault zone in the Mid-Atlantic region, and some small earthquakes have been known to occur in its vicinity. Recently, public knowledge about the fault has increased – especially after the 1970s, when the fault’s proximity to the Indian Point nuclear plant in New York was noticed.

There is insufficient evidence to unequivocally demonstrate any strong correlation of earthquakes in the New York City area with specific faults or other geologic structures in this region. The damaging earthquake affecting New York City in 1884 was probably not associated with the Ramapo fault because the strongest shaking from that earthquake occurred on Long Island (quite far from the trace of the Ramapo fault). The relationship between faults and earthquakes in the New York City area is currently understood to be more complex than any simple association of a specific earthquake with a specific mapped fault.

A 2008 study argued that a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake might originate from the Ramapo fault zone,

which would almost definitely spawn hundreds or even thousands of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Studying around 400 earthquakes over the past 300 years, the study also argued that there was an additional fault zone extending from the Ramapo Fault zone into southwestern Connecticut. As can be seen in the above figure of seismicity, earthquakes are scattered throughout this region, with no particular concentration of activity along the Ramapo fault, or along the hypothesized fault zone extending into southwestern Connecticut.

Just off the northern terminus of the Ramapo fault is the

Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant, built between 1956 and 1960 by

Consolidated Edison Company. The plant began operating in 1963, and it has been the subject of a controversy over concerns that an earthquake from the Ramapo fault will affect the power plant. Whether or not the Ramapo fault actually does pose a threat to this nuclear power plant remains an open question.

Iranian Horn is on its way to a nuclear bomb and Israel is silent

 AN IRANIAN cleric walks past an anti-US mural on a wall of the former American Embassy in Tehran this week. (photo credit: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)

Iran is on its way to a nuclear bomb and Israel is silent – opinion

Should our leaders not be warning the people of what is coming? Why the silence? Why the seeming indifference?


Published: MARCH 17, 2022 19:00

Updated: MARCH 18, 2022 14:48

AN IRANIAN cleric walks past an anti-US mural on a wall of the former American Embassy in Tehran this week.

(photo credit: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)

Two weeks ago, the Russian envoy to the nuclear talks in Vienna dropped a bombshell. “I am absolutely sincere in this regard when I say that Iran got much more than it could expect – much more,” Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov told Iranian news outlet IRNA. “Realistically speaking, Iran got more than, frankly, I expected or others expected. This is a matter of fact.”

And in Israel, there was silence.

A week earlier, an IAEA report was leaked, which showed that the stockpile of enriched uranium amassed by Iran has dramatically grown to the point that its most highly-enriched material is just a jump away from a nuclear weapon.

And in Israel there was silence.

And then this week, on Wednesday, reports emerged that – in the framework of a new deal – the United States is considering removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the Foreign Terrorist Organization list. The news was earth shattering and would be an amazing prize to Iran, just days after Tehran took responsibility for firing ballistic missiles at a US consulate in Erbil.

 VIEW OF a damaged building in the aftermath of missile attacks in Erbil on Sunday, for which Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility. (credit: AZAD LASHKARI/REUTERS)VIEW OF a damaged building in the aftermath of missile attacks in Erbil on Sunday, for which Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility. (credit: AZAD LASHKARI/REUTERS)

And again, in Israel there was silence.

At this point, there is no longer hiding what should be obvious to every Israeli: Iran is on its way to getting the best deal it could have imagined, which will pave the way for it to one day obtain a nuclear weapon. At the same time, Israel is on its way to potentially facing a threat of an existential nature – and instead of fighting it tooth and nail, the leadership in this country is, for the most part, silent.

There are a number of reasons why Israel is largely silent. While it is true that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz occasionally issue a statement against the coming deal and speak frequently with their foreign counterparts about it, this type of activity is a far cry from the way Israel has fought against nuclear proliferation in the past.

According to senior government sources, one of the reasons Israel is quiet is because its silence was a condition made by the Americans if Jerusalem wanted to receive regular updates from what was happening in Vienna. To get the information, Israel needed to tamp down its criticism – and the decision made was that knowing what was happening was crucial for Israel to potentially influence the outcome.

The problem is that Israel does not seem to have influenced the deal at all. Instead, what we are about to see signed is a deal that will be remembered as the worst possible for Israel and the best possible for Iran. It is shorter and weaker than the original JCPOA signed in 2015 and will ultimately lead to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon if and when it decides to.

AND THIS leads to the second reason for Israel’s quiet, which is the more significant one – a general resignation that a bad deal is coming and Israel cannot do anything to stop it. It is almost an acceptance of the fact that Iran is going to get a bomb.

While this might be true, should Israel not at least try? Should our leaders not be warning the people of what is coming? Why the silence? Why the seeming indifference?

This is not to advocate for what former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu did in 2015 when he went to Washington, spoke before Congress and poked a finger in the eye of President Barack Obama. The speech did not stop the deal but it did cause damage to the bipartisan support for the Jewish state that is still felt seven years later.

On the other extreme is Israel’s current policy of staying quiet. 

In between these two options, though, there is a wide-open field of steps that can be taken. Bennett could fly next week to Europe and ask for meetings with leaders in Paris and London. He could get the leader of China on the phone or fly to Washington and demand a meeting with Biden.

He and Lapid could also hit the airwaves and speak every day on another international news channel. With the war in Ukraine still dominating the news cycle, it won’t be easy to get the world’s attention, but shouldn’t Israel try?

An example of Israeli paralysis was evident this week when it was thrown a softball – 49 Republican senators pledged to do everything in their power to reverse an agreement that does not “completely block” Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. But instead of hitting it out of the park, Bennett and Lapid didn’t say a word. They didn’t issue their own statement. Silence once again.

Bennett wasn’t always like this. Back in 2015, he traveled to Washington at the same time as Netanyahu and ran from studio to studio and back again to speak out against the JCPOA. When he became defense minister in 2019, he claimed to have come up with a new strategy for how to stop Iran, one that would take the battle to the Iranians and make it clear that they have too much to lose.

What happened to all of that? Where did it go? And why does it seem like Israel has given up? The resignation coming out of Jerusalem does not demonstrate strength; it shows weakness – and it should have Israelis concerned. While it is nice to see our prime minister serve as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, let’s not forget that what is happening there has almost nothing to do with the State of Israel. On the other hand, what is happening in Vienna has everything to do with Iran. Shouldn’t we hear his voice on that, too?

THE SILENCE on Iran and the flurry of activity on Ukraine has some officials wondering if Bennett’s involvement in the war talks is not meant to distract attention away from what Israelis should really be caring about – the terrible deal that is coming in Vienna.

And this is what is important to keep in mind – when that deal is signed, there will be little way to explain it except as a failure by the Israeli government. When this government took office in June, its top members explained that they were resetting the ties with the United States and would be working to repair the damage Netanyahu had caused, especially to Israeli relations with the Democratic Party.

To some extent, they have repaired those ties, which is not something that can just be dismissed. On the other hand, the payoff is not seen when it comes to Iran.

And while it is important to not burn all its bridges so it will not be able to work with the Biden administration and its European allies the day after, it is also important for Israel to take a stand, especially on an issue like this that will have wide-ranging ramifications for the State of Israel, the Jewish people and the entire world for years to come.

DOES THIS mean all is lost? While our leaders like to say that Israel retains all options and will continue to do whatever is needed to protect itself, the chance of a military strike against Iran in the aftermath of a deal is between unlikely and impossible.

On the one hand, the diplomatic failure means that the only chance Israel has to make a difference is through military force. On the other hand, the ability to attack with a new deal in place will be limited – because if Jerusalem wasn’t willing to attack the negotiations before the deal was reached, why would it attack the facilities now that there is a deal? This is barring a scenario where there is a blatant violation and clear evidence that Iran is actively building a bomb.

In addition, what is important to keep in mind is that Iran’s nuclear facilities were built by Iran for Iran. This is unlike Iraq’s nuclear reactor, which was built by France and destroyed by Israel in 1981, and Syria’s nuclear reactor which was built by North Korea and destroyed by Israel in 2007. In both cases, when the reactors were destroyed, Iraq and Syria could not rebuild them on their own. They were still dependent on external assistance.

Iran is different. It has mastered the technology and know-how, so even if its facilities would be damaged, the ability to rebuild them would remain. This casts a cloud over the effectiveness of any future strike.

With that said, it is impossible to know what will happen after an attack. When Israel attacked Iraq’s reactor, the initial assessment was that it would delay Saddam Hussein’s plans by a year or two. It stopped them forever.

Is the same possible now with Iran? That is difficult to know. But now that it’s clear that diplomacy failed to stop Tehran, the specter of military force has risen higher than ever.

Winners of the Obama Deal Will Be Iran and Russia

Winners Of Iran Deal Are Khamenei And Putin – US Senator


Iran Nuclear

US Republican Senator Ted Cruz says Russian President Vladimir Putin and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are the major winners of the renewed deal with Iran.

In a tweet on Monday, Cruz denounced the deal that the Biden administration hopes to strike with the Islamic Republic, noting that “Biden’s foreign policy has failed in Afghanistan and Ukraine; now he is preparing to make a new catastrophic nuclear agreement with the Iranian regime”.

He emphasized that the Islamic Republic is “the same regime that chants ‘Death to America’, has killed hundreds of Americans, and conducts terrorism around the globe”.

He also shared a video of his remarks last week, saying, “In Vienna, Biden diplomats have been furiously bending over backwards to surrender to the Ayatollah (referring to Khamenei), the same Ayatollah who is a theocratic despot who regularly chants ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’”.

“This administration wants nothing more than to give them hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief, money that will inevitably be used to — number one — murder Americans… and number two – to develop nuclear weapons”, he said.

Iran “may be only weeks away from being able to develop a nuclear weapon”, Cruz warned, noting that “our enemies are stronger because of the weakness of this administration.

In a statement from Senate Republicans released on Monday, 49 Senators told the Biden Administration they oppose a revived deal as it can reduce limits on Tehran’s nuclear program.

The Iranian Horn Defies the West and Nukes Up: Daniel 8

The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, in Vienna

Iran defies Western powers with work on near weapons-grade uranium

By Francois Murphy

The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner

VIENNA, March 16 (Reuters) – Iran has defied Western powers by converting some of its uranium enriched to near weapons-grade into a form less easily recovered, diluted and shipped out of the country, a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog on Wednesday showed.

The move is unlikely to wreck indirect talks between Iran and the United States to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal but it will make it harder to implement any resulting agreement to return to the limits on Iran’s stock of enriched uranium.

U.S. allies France, Britain and Germany, which are involved in the talks, said as much in a joint statement issued last Tuesday in which they demanded that Iran not carry out the work.

“We strongly urge Iran to avoid undertaking any new escalations and in particular, call upon Iran to immediately cease all activity related to conversion of highly enriched uranium, which will have practical implications for returning to JCPoA limits,” they said in the statement, calling the deal by its full name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The agreement, which diplomats say is nearing completion, would require Iran to get rid of its stock of uranium enriched above the deal’s limit of 3.67% purity. Its most highly enriched uranium is roughly 60%, close to the 90% of weapons grade, of which it has about 33 kg (73 lb).

Until its latest move outlined in last Thursday’s International Atomic Energy Agency report to member states, Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% was all in the form of uranium hexafluoride, the feedstock for uranium-enriching centrifuges. Uranium hexafluoride can easily be diluted and transported, a process delegates at the talks have been discussing for months.

The confidential report, seen by Reuters and summarized in a short statement by the IAEA, said that between March 6 and March 9 the IAEA verified that Iran had converted 2.1 kg (4.6 lb) of its up to 60% uranium into 1.7 kg (3.8 lb) in a different form enriched to the same level suitable for making small “targets” for irradiation.

Irradiating such targets produces molybdenum-99, a medical isotope that produces another one widely used in medical diagnostic imaging. What remains of the target includes highly enriched uranium in a form that must be processed to recover it.

On March 11 and 13 the IAEA verified Iran had produced 32 targets containing a total of 186.7 grams (6.6 ounces) of uranium enriched up to 60%, the report said, adding that Iran later declared they had all been irradiated.

The agency then verified on March 15 that Iran had produced another batch of 56 targets containing a total of 329 grams (11.6 ounces) of uranium enriched to the same level, the report said.

Even Blinken is Concerned About the Bowls of Wrath: Revelation 16

Blinken: 'Have real concerns' Russia could use chemical weapons

Blinken: ‘Have real concerns’ Russia could use chemical weapons

BY CAROLINE VAKIL – 03/16/22 10:12 AM

© Getty Images

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that officials “have real concerns” that Russia could use chemical weapons during its invasion of Ukraine, even though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called Russian threats a “bluff.”

During an appearance on CNN on Tuesday, Blinken was asked how real the risk was for the conflict in Ukraine to turn into a nuclear war.

Blinken told host Wolf Blitzer that Russia’s “loose talk” regarding their nuclear weapons capabilities is “the height of irresponsibility” but said it was something officials were “very focused on.”

“There’s a lot of bad loose talk and bluster. At the same time, I have to tell you, we have real concerns that Russia could use a chemical weapon, another weapon of mass destruction. This is something we’re very focused on,” Blinken said.

“Unfortunately, we’ve seen them use or acquiesce to its use before in Syria, with Syria using these weapons, using them itself, trying to assassinate its opponents, including in the United Kingdom. So, this is something we are very focused on,” he continued.

Blinken would not provide specifics of what consequences Russia could face if they did use chemical or nuclear weapons but said that the U.S. and its NATO allies have been clear “that there would be a very serious response.”

In a televised address last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that “no one should have any doubts that a direct attack on our country will lead to the destruction and horrible consequences for any potential aggressor” in a nod to his country’s nuclear capabilities, according to The Associated Press.

Putin later put Russia’s nuclear arsenal on a higher alert, which a senior United States defense official called “escalatory” and “unnecessary.”

Zelensky brushed off Putin’s threats of using nuclear weapons, telling German newspaper Die Zeit in an interview this month that he thought they were a “bluff.”

But U.S. officials told lawmakers earlier this month that they have taken the matter seriously and have taken steps to declassify and publicize likely moves by Putin, which they feel have deterred Russian forces. 

Babylon the Great works to maintain calm outside the Temple Walls: Revelation 11

A general view of the Western Wall in Jerusalem and the al-Aqsa compound on Jan. 25. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt//AFP via Getty Images
A general view of the Western Wall in Jerusalem and the al-Aqsa compound on Jan. 25. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt//AFP via Getty Images

U.S. works to maintain calm in Jerusalem as holidays near

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The Biden administration is working to maintain calm in Jerusalem ahead of an unusual situation that happens once every 10 years (when important Jewish, Muslim and Christian holidays coincide), U.S. ambassador to Israel Tom Nides said yesterday.

Why it matters: The fact that Passover, Ramadan and Easter take place during the same time in mid-April heightens the potential for violence in Jerusalem. Israeli officials say there is no specific intelligence that an escalation will take place.

Flashback: During the month of Ramadan and ahead of Jerusalem Day last May, Israeli police banned Palestinians from gathering near the Damascus Gate, leading to violent confrontations between Israeli police and Palestinians in the Old City.

  • Tensions had already been high over the planned expulsions of several Palestinian families from East Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood.
  • As the situation intensified, Hamas fired missiles toward Jerusalem, and eventually at Tel Aviv and southern Israel. Israel began an 11-day military campaign against Gaza. Hundreds of Palestinians and more than a dozen people in Israel were killed.
  • It was the Biden administration’s first international crisis.
  • Tensions have remained high since, with the threat of further escalation at any point.

Behind the scenes: During a webinar organized by Americans for Peace Now — a left-wing NGO that works to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace — Nides said he sent a cable to the State Department five weeks ago alerting them of this sensitive week in mid-April.

  • “I wrote, ‘Wake up everybody, this is really a problem.’ Everyone [in Washington] is fixated now on what could be a really serious issue,” Nides said.
  • “The more you talk about it, the more the chances are that the Israelis, Egyptians and Jordanians will calm things down — to make sure this holy week does not blow up,” he added.

State of play: Nides and other Biden administration officials have discussed the matter with Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian and Egyptian officials and stressed the need to maintain calm, a source briefed on the issue said.

  • The State Department’s point person on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Hady Amr traveled to Jerusalem, Ramallah and Amman this week.
  • The sensitive situation in Jerusalem is one of the issues he is discussing. A State Department official said Amr is working to reduce tensions and to implement specific economic steps that will improve lives.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met last Wednesday with Palestinian Minister for Civilian Affairs Hussein al-Sheikh and discussed the need to maintain calm in Jerusalem during Ramadan and Passover.
  • A day later, Lapid addressed the issue with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Amman, Israeli officials said.

What’s next: On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met senior ministers and the heads of the military, the police and the Shin Bet security agency to discuss the preparations for Ramadan, which starts at the beginning of April, and the sensitive week in the middle of the month.