The National Hurricane Center estimates a 30 percent chance that this system will develop in the next five days. (NOAA/NHC)
Down the road, weather models continue to work toward cranking out additional systems in this area. Historically, the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have been areas to closely monitor this time of year, anyway. During autumn, activity typically wanes in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region, or the stretch of marine real estate between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, while the threat of “homegrown” storms closer to the U.S. shoreline increases.
Why the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has spun out of control
And those are the same systems that often prove more tricky to predict, as they mature closer to land and often are harder to spot from a distance.