The History Of New York Earthquakes: Before The Sixth Seal (Rev 6:12) Earthquakes
Near New York City, New York

1884 08 10 19:07 UTC
Magnitude 5.5
Intensity VII

This severe earthquake affected an area roughly extending along the Atlantic Coast from southern Maine to central Virginia and westward to Cleveland, Ohio. Chimneys were knocked down and walls were cracked in several States, including Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Many towns from Hartford, Connecticut, to West Chester,Pennsylvania.

Property damage was severe at Amityville and Jamaica, New York, where several chimneys were “overturned” and large cracks formed in walls. Two chimneys were thrown down and bricks were shaken from other chimneys at Stratford (Fairfield County), Conn.; water in the Housatonic River was agitated violently. At Bloomfield, N.J., and Chester, Pa., several chimneys were downed and crockery was broken. Chimneys also were damaged at Mount Vernon, N.Y., and Allentown, Easton, and Philadelphia, Pa. Three shocks occurred, the second of which was most violent. This earthquake also was reported felt in Vermont, Virginia, and Washington, D.C. Several slight aftershocks were reported on August 11.

Antichrist Calling Political Shots in Iraq

Influential Shiite cleric opposes ousting President Masum for Maliki

BAGHDAD, Iraq – The influential Shiite Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has said he opposes replacing President Fuad Masum with Vice President Nouri al-Maliki, a political rival to the Sadr Movement for the past decade.

Asked by one of his followers for his view on attempts to remove Masum, a Kurd, from his post because of the Kurdistan independence referendum and replace him with Maliki, the Shiite cleric said he does not believe that is the right decision.

“It is one kind of political pressure,” Sadr wrote in a statement published by his media office. “Despite the fact I do not believe it will be successful, it is also not right at the moment.”

Sadr and Maliki are staunch rivals, mainly because of disagreements that go back to when US and British forces were present in Iraq. In 2008 the then US-backed and Maliki-led government carried out a military operation against Sadr armed group in Basra and elsewhere in the country.

Regarding the Kurdistan referendum last month that saw 92.7 percent of voters support leaving Iraq despite strong opposition from the Iraqi government, Sadr said he hoped Kurds will turn back the clock.

“What the government is doing amounts to a shy [move] with regard to the territorial and national unity of Iraq,” Sadr said of the measures the Iraqi government has taken against Erbil in the wake of the vote.

“I wish that the Kurds will retreat from the referendum and will commit to the articles of the constitution, instead of taking Iraq and themselves into a conflict that has no way out,” the cleric stated.

The Kurdistan government has repeatedly stated that the Iraqi government has violated at least one third of the Iraqi constitution and has described the punitive measures imposed by Baghdad since September 25 as “collective punishment.”

Baghdad says the referendum was in violation of the constitution and has demanded Erbil annul the outcome of the vote before any talks can take place.

VP Maliki served as prime minister from 2006 to 2014. He was succeeded by Haider al-Abadi, a Shiite politician from Maliki’s Dawa Party.

New York is a Sitting Duck for an Earthquake (Revelation 6:12)

Natural disasters seem to be increasingly common these days. Whether it’s the rapid, machine gun-like frequency that hurricanes hit our coast or the earthquakes and tsunamis killing hundreds of thousands, it can feel like Mother Earth has a vendetta against humanity. Even if you live in an area you thought was relatively safe from natural disasters, you might be surprised at how much risk there actually is. And for millions of Americans, the biggest threat isn’t from hurricanes or floods — it’s from earthquakes.

Using data from the United States Geological Survey, we’ve compiled a list of 15 American cities that are in real danger of experiencing a devastating earthquake. Although some of these cities might not be much of a surprise, there are plenty that are — and might have you checking your homeowners insurance policy to make sure you’re in the clear. The USGS data say earthquake risk in these areas is both natural and man made (as a result of hydraulic fracturing, among other things), meaning parts of the country that were once relatively risk free now have increased odds of a serious seismic event.

We don’t mean to shake you up, but here are the 15 cities that could see potentially devastating earthquakes in the very near future.

12. New York City

New York sits on shaky ground — literally. Though the risk of a huge quake isn’t anywhere close to cities, such as Los Angeles or San Francisco, New York is located on an area fraught with fault lines. Moderate quakes have hit the region for centuries, average about 5.0 on the Richter scale. The last quake of that magnitude to hit New York occurred in 1884, and that means New York is about due to see another sometime soon.

Trump Succumbs to Iran for Now

Tillerson says in US interest to stay in Iran nuclear deal

2 hours ago by Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and Michael Peel in Brussels


Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, on Sunday stressed that it was in the US national interest to remain in the Iran nuclear deal that is aimed at preventing Tehran from building nuclear weapons.

While defending Donald Trump’s decision not to endorse the accord because of its perceived weaknesses, Mr Tillerson said he and the US president did not want Congress to reimpose sanctions on Tehran that could lead to the deal unravelling.

“Let’s see if we cannot address the flaws in the agreement by staying within the agreement, working with the other signatories, working with our European friends and allies within the agreement,” he told CNN.

Mr Trump on Friday angered other signatories by refusing to certify that Iran was in compliance with the landmark nuclear deal — a determination that the president is required to make every 90 days under US law — in a move that puts the onus on Congress and US allies to attempt to find ways to save it from collapsing. It was signed in 2015 by Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — the US, China, Russia, France and the UK — in addition to Germany and the EU.

Mr Trump, who during the presidential race said that he would tear up the deal on his first day in office, on Friday did not abandon it. However, he warned that if Congress and US allies did not find a solution to fix what he said were weaknesses in the deal he would walk away from it.

Mr Tillerson said he agreed with Jim Mattis, secretary of defence, that it was in the US national interest to remain in the deal.

He added that the new approach was aimed at finding other ways to tackle weaknesses in the deal which Iran and the European signatories say cannot be renegotiated.

General HR McMaster, White House national security adviser, told Fox News that Mr Trump had “set out a marker” to Iran and US allies that the “weak” deal needed fixing.

“It is a weak deal that is being weakly monitored, and so the president has made clear he will not permit this deal to provide cover for what we know is a horrible regime to develop a nuclear weapon,” Gen McMaster said.

One European diplomat said EU foreign ministers would discuss Iran in Luxembourg on Monday to “show European unity . . . and support for the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] in a session chaired by Federica Mogherini, the EU foreign policy chief, who on Friday said the deal did not belong to one country and could not be terminated by one country.

Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, on Friday said Iran would stand by the deal, saying “no president can revoke an international deal”. But he warned that Tehran could change course “if one day our interests are not served” by the accord.

Spearheaded by Bob Corker, the moderate head of the Senate foreign relations committee, and Tom Cotton, an Iran hawk, Congressional Republicans are trying to craft legislation to address what Mr Trump says are the flaws. Critics argue that any move to effectively change the deal through external measures would breach the spirit of the JCPOA and undermine efforts to keep the agreement in place.

Chuck Schumer and Ben Cardin — the top Senate Democrat and the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, respectively — both criticised the move by Mr Trump even though they were two of only four Democrats who voted against the Iran deal in 2015. They pointed to the fact that Mr Mattis, and General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the joint chiefs, both said the JCPOA was in the US interest.

“The @SenateDems agree with #SecDef Mattis and General Dunford. We won’t allow the Iran deal to be undone,” Mr Schumer tweeted on Sunday.

Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter: @dimi

Columbia University Warns Of Sixth Seal (Revelation 6:12) 

Earthquakes May Endanger New York More Than Thought, Says Study

A study by a group of prominent seismologists suggests that a pattern of subtle but active faults makes the risk of earthquakes to the New York City area substantially greater than formerly believed. Among other things, they say that the controversial Indian Point nuclear power plants, 24 miles north of the city, sit astride the previously unidentified intersection of two active seismic zones. The paper appears in the current issue of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

Many faults and a few mostly modest quakes have long been known around New York City, but the research casts them in a new light. The scientists say the insight comes from sophisticated analysis of past quakes, plus 34 years of new data on tremors, most of them perceptible only by modern seismic instruments. The evidence charts unseen but potentially powerful structures whose layout and dynamics are only now coming clearer, say the scientists. All are based at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, which runs the network of seismometers that monitors most of the northeastern United States.

Lead author Lynn R. Sykes said the data show that large quakes are infrequent around New York compared to more active areas like California and Japan, but that the risk is high, because of the overwhelming concentration of people and infrastructure. “The research raises the perception both of how common these events are, and, specifically, where they may occur,” he said. “It’s an extremely populated area with very large assets.” Sykes, who has studied the region for four decades, is known for his early role in establishing the global theory of plate tectonics.

The authors compiled a catalog of all 383 known earthquakes from 1677 to 2007 in a 15,000-square-mile area around New York City. Coauthor John Armbruster estimated sizes and locations of dozens of events before 1930 by combing newspaper accounts and other records. The researchers say magnitude 5 quakes—strong enough to cause damage–occurred in 1737, 1783 and 1884. There was little settlement around to be hurt by the first two quakes, whose locations are vague due to a lack of good accounts; but the last, thought to be centered under the seabed somewhere between Brooklyn and Sandy Hook, toppled chimneys across the city and New Jersey, and panicked bathers at Coney Island. Based on this, the researchers say such quakes should be routinely expected, on average, about every 100 years. “Today, with so many more buildings and people, a magnitude 5 centered below the city would be extremely attention-getting,” said Armbruster. “We’d see billions in damage, with some brick buildings falling. People would probably be killed.”

Starting in the early 1970s Lamont began collecting data on quakes from dozens of newly deployed seismometers; these have revealed further potential, including distinct zones where earthquakes concentrate, and where larger ones could come. The Lamont network, now led by coauthor Won-Young Kim, has located hundreds of small events, including a magnitude 3 every few years, which can be felt by people at the surface, but is unlikely to cause damage. These small quakes tend to cluster along a series of small, old faults in harder rocks across the region. Many of the faults were discovered decades ago when subways, water tunnels and other excavations intersected them, but conventional wisdom said they were inactive remnants of continental collisions and rifting hundreds of millions of years ago. The results clearly show that they are active, and quite capable of generating damaging quakes, said Sykes.

One major previously known feature, the Ramapo Seismic Zone, runs from eastern Pennsylvania to the mid-Hudson Valley, passing within a mile or two northwest of Indian Point. The researchers found that this system is not so much a single fracture as a braid of smaller ones, where quakes emanate from a set of still ill-defined faults. East and south of the Ramapo zone—and possibly more significant in terms of hazard–is a set of nearly parallel northwest-southeast faults. These include Manhattan’s 125th Street fault, which seems to have generated two small 1981 quakes, and could have been the source of the big 1737 quake; the Dyckman Street fault, which carried a magnitude 2 in 1989; the Mosholu Parkway fault; and the Dobbs Ferry fault in suburban Westchester, which generated the largest recent shock, a surprising magnitude 4.1, in 1985. Fortunately, it did no damage. Given the pattern, Sykes says the big 1884 quake may have hit on a yet-undetected member of this parallel family further south.

The researchers say that frequent small quakes occur in predictable ratios to larger ones, and so can be used to project a rough time scale for damaging events. Based on the lengths of the faults, the detected tremors, and calculations of how stresses build in the crust, the researchers say that magnitude 6 quakes, or even 7—respectively 10 and 100 times bigger than magnitude 5–are quite possible on the active faults they describe. They calculate that magnitude 6 quakes take place in the area about every 670 years, and sevens, every 3,400 years. The corresponding probabilities of occurrence in any 50-year period would be 7% and 1.5%. After less specific hints of these possibilities appeared in previous research, a 2003 analysis by The New York City Area Consortium for Earthquake Loss Mitigation put the cost of quakes this size in the metro New York area at $39 billion to $197 billion. A separate 2001 analysis for northern New Jersey’s Bergen County estimates that a magnitude 7 would destroy 14,000 buildings and damage 180,000 in that area alone. The researchers point out that no one knows when the last such events occurred, and say no one can predict when they next might come.

“We need to step backward from the simple old model, where you worry about one large, obvious fault, like they do in California,” said coauthor Leonardo Seeber. “The problem here comes from many subtle faults. We now see there is earthquake activity on them. Each one is small, but when you add them up, they are probably more dangerous than we thought. We need to take a very close look.” Seeber says that because the faults are mostly invisible at the surface and move infrequently, a big quake could easily hit one not yet identified. “The probability is not zero, and the damage could be great,” he said. “It could be like something out of a Greek myth.”

The researchers found concrete evidence for one significant previously unknown structure: an active seismic zone running at least 25 miles from Stamford, Conn., to the Hudson Valley town of Peekskill, N.Y., where it passes less than a mile north of the Indian Point nuclear power plant. The Stamford-Peekskill line stands out sharply on the researchers’ earthquake map, with small events clustered along its length, and to its immediate southwest. Just to the north, there are no quakes, indicating that it represents some kind of underground boundary. It is parallel to the other faults beginning at 125th Street, so the researchers believe it is a fault in the same family. Like the others, they say it is probably capable of producing at least a magnitude 6 quake. Furthermore, a mile or so on, it intersects the Ramapo seismic zone.

Sykes said the existence of the Stamford-Peekskill line had been suggested before, because the Hudson takes a sudden unexplained bend just ot the north of Indian Point, and definite traces of an old fault can be along the north side of the bend. The seismic evidence confirms it, he said. “Indian Point is situated at the intersection of the two most striking linear features marking the seismicity and also in the midst of a large population that is at risk in case of an accident,” says the paper. “This is clearly one of the least favorable sites in our study area from an earthquake hazard and risk perspective.”

The findings comes at a time when Entergy, the owner of Indian Point, is trying to relicense the two operating plants for an additional 20 years—a move being fought by surrounding communities and the New York State Attorney General. Last fall the attorney general, alerted to the then-unpublished Lamont data, told a Nuclear Regulatory Commission panel in a filing: “New data developed in the last 20 years disclose a substantially higher likelihood of significant earthquake activity in the vicinity of [Indian Point] that could exceed the earthquake design for the facility.” The state alleges that Entergy has not presented new data on earthquakes past 1979. However, in a little-noticed decision this July 31, the panel rejected the argument on procedural grounds. A source at the attorney general’s office said the state is considering its options.

The characteristics of New York’s geology and human footprint may increase the problem. Unlike in California, many New York quakes occur near the surface—in the upper mile or so—and they occur not in the broken-up, more malleable formations common where quakes are frequent, but rather in the extremely hard, rigid rocks underlying Manhattan and much of the lower Hudson Valley. Such rocks can build large stresses, then suddenly and efficiently transmit energy over long distances. “It’s like putting a hard rock in a vise,” said Seeber. “Nothing happens for a while. Then it goes with a bang.” Earthquake-resistant building codes were not introduced to New York City until 1995, and are not in effect at all in many other communities. Sinuous skyscrapers and bridges might get by with minimal damage, said Sykes, but many older, unreinforced three- to six-story brick buildings could crumble.

Art Lerner-Lam, associate director of Lamont for seismology, geology and tectonophysics, pointed out that the region’s major highways including the New York State Thruway, commuter and long-distance rail lines, and the main gas, oil and power transmission lines all cross the parallel active faults, making them particularly vulnerable to being cut. Lerner-Lam, who was not involved in the research, said that the identification of the seismic line near Indian Point “is a major substantiation of a feature that bears on the long-term earthquake risk of the northeastern United States.” He called for policymakers to develop more information on the region’s vulnerability, to take a closer look at land use and development, and to make investments to strengthen critical infrastructure.

“This is a landmark study in many ways,” said Lerner-Lam. “It gives us the best possible evidence that we have an earthquake hazard here that should be a factor in any planning decision. It crystallizes the argument that this hazard is not random. There is a structure to the location and timing of the earthquakes. This enables us to contemplate risk in an entirely different way. And since we are able to do that, we should be required to do that.”

New York Earthquake Briefs and Quotes:

Existing U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps show New York City as facing more hazard than many other eastern U.S. areas. Three areas are somewhat more active—northernmost New York State, New Hampshire and South Carolina—but they have much lower populations and fewer structures. The wider forces at work include pressure exerted from continuing expansion of the mid-Atlantic Ridge thousands of miles to the east; slow westward migration of the North American continent; and the area’s intricate labyrinth of old faults, sutures and zones of weakness caused by past collisions and rifting.

Due to New York’s past history, population density and fragile, interdependent infrastructure, a 2001 analysis by the Federal Emergency Management Agency ranks it the 11th most at-risk U.S. city for earthquake damage. Among those ahead: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Portland. Behind: Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Anchorage.

New York’s first seismic station was set up at Fordham University in the 1920s. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, in Palisades, N.Y., has operated stations since 1949, and now coordinates a network of about 40.

Dozens of small quakes have been felt in the New York area. A Jan. 17, 2001 magnitude 2.4, centered in the Upper East Side—the first ever detected in Manhattan itself–may have originated on the 125th Street fault. Some people thought it was an explosion, but no one was harmed.

The most recent felt quake, a magnitude 2.1 on July 28, 2008, was centered near Milford, N.J. Houses shook and a woman at St. Edward’s Church said she felt the building rise up under her feet—but no damage was done.

Questions about the seismic safety of the Indian Point nuclear power plant, which lies amid a metropolitan area of more than 20 million people, were raised in previous scientific papers in 1978 and 1985.

Because the hard rocks under much of New York can build up a lot strain before breaking, researchers believe that modest faults as short as 1 to 10 kilometers can cause magnitude 5 or 6 quakes.

In general, magnitude 3 quakes occur about 10 times more often than magnitude fours; 100 times more than magnitude fives; and so on. This principle is called the Gutenberg-Richter relationship.