Russia Adds Another 111 Nukes (Daniel 7)

Russia Adds 111 Warheads Under Arms Treaty

Moscow warheads above New START treaty limit

BY: Bill Gertz
October 9, 2015 4:59 am

Russia has now deployed more than 100 nuclear warheads in its strategic arsenal above the limits set by the New START arms treaty limits—two years before it must meet treaty arms reduction goals.
New START nuclear warhead and delivery system numbers made public Oct. 1 reveal that since the 2010 arms accord went into force, Moscow increased the number of deployed nuclear warheads by a total of 111 weapons for a total of 1,648 deployed warheads. That number is 98 warheads above the treaty limit of 1,150 warheads that must be reached by the 2018 deadline of the treaty.
At the same time, U.S. nuclear warheads, missiles, and bombers have fallen sharply and remain below the required levels under the New START pact.
The United States during the same period of the Russian increases cut its deployed nuclear arsenal by 250 warheads.
The Russian increases and U.S. cuts bolster claims by critics who say the arms treaty is one-sided in constraining U.S. forces while the Russians appear to be ignoring the treaty limits as part of a major strategic forces buildup of missiles, submarines, and bombers.
Additionally, nuclear analysts say recent actions and statements suggest Russia may be preparing to jettison the New START treaty.
“Russia may pull out of the New START before it requires any Russians reductions,” said former Pentagon nuclear policymaker Mark Schneider. “Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s department of security and disarmament issues, Mikhail Ulyanov, said so in 2014 and 2015.”
U.S. nuclear forces in 2011 included 882 land- and sea-based missiles and bombers, 1,800 deployed nuclear warheads, and 1,124 non-deployed launchers and bombers.
The United States today has 762 ICBMs, submarine-launched missiles and heavy bombers, 1,538 warheads and 898 non-deployed weapons.
For the same categories, Russia added five missiles for a total of 526, and 12 non-deployed launchers and bombers for a total of 877.
The Air Force in August carried out the first showing for Russian nuclear inspectors of a converted nuclear-capable B-52H bomber to a non-nuclear aircraft under the treaty. The bomber exhibition took place in September and thus was not counted in the latest U.S. figures for bomber cuts.
Additionally, the Navy also showed the first nuclear missile submarine with converted launch tubes under the treaty last month.
The United States plans to eliminate 98 launchers and heavy bombers under the treaty to reach the 800 treaty level for launchers and bombers by 2018.
Plans call for converting 30 B-52H bombers and 56 submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers and send 12 B-52Hs to the aircraft bone yard.
“To date, our reductions have been for inactive or weapon systems without a nuclear mission—104 ICBM launch facilities, 51 B-52Gs, and converting B-1s to conventional-only under the treaty,” said one defense official.
By contrast, Russia under Vladimir Putin is embarked on a major strategic nuclear forces buildup that includes new missile submarines, upgrading older missile submarines and adding several new strategic missiles. Moscow, like the U.S. Air Force, is also planning a new bomber.
Additionally, Russia under Putin has announced a new doctrine that places a greater emphasis on nuclear forces.
During the crisis over Russia’s military annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, Putin made threats to use nuclear forces against the Untied States and NATO if there were intervention to reverse the annexation.
Russian officials also have made nuclear threats against the United States in response to reports that NATO plans to move military forces into Eastern Europe in response to Russian threats.
Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, said Russia “is in the business of violating treaties.”
“From the Intermediate range Nuclear Forces Treaty, to the Open Skies Treaty, to other conventional and unconventional arms control agreements—Russia violates any treaty or agreement that puts limits on capabilities that Mr. Putin and his cronies desire,” Rogers said. “Russia’s arguable adherence to the New START Treaty just indicates how bad a deal it is for the United States.”
The nuclear numbers were disclosed by the State Department’s bureau of arms control, verification, and compliance.
Blake Narendra, a State Department spokesperson for the arms control bureau, said officials are aware of the increase in Russian deployed warheads and delivery vehicles. But he sought to play down the buildup.
“The United States and Russia continue to implement the New START Treaty in a business-like manner,” Narendra said. “We fully expect Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018.”
By that date, Moscow and Washington must reach limits of no more than 700 deployed treaty limited delivery vehicles and 1,550 deployed warheads.
Despite the U.S. cuts, Narendra said “our declared forces show clearly that the United States maintains a capable deterrent force capable of defending our interests and those of our friends and allies.”
The increase in Russian numbers was anticipated as Moscow replaces older weapons, Narendra said, adding “we have known for a long time about Russia’s modernization of its strategic nuclear arsenal.”
The spokesman defended the utility of the treaty despite the Russian buildup that has included unprecedented nuclear threats against NATO. The treaty provides knowledge of numbers and locations of Russian strategic forces “at a time when we need it the most,” he said.
Schneider, now a senior analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, said Russia is now at the highest level of deployed nuclear warheads since the New START treaty went into force.
“For the last three reporting periods—18 months—Russia has moved from below New START limits in deployed warheads and deployed delivery vehicles to above them,” said Schneider.
“In all three limited categories—deployed warheads, deployed delivery vehicles and deployed and non-deployed delivery vehicles—Russia is above its entry into force numbers from 2011”.
Schneider said a flaw in the treaty counting numbers allowed the Russians to under count bomber weapons so that Russia may have between 400 to 500 more bomber-delivered warheads than the United States.
“The U.S. left may not think this is very important, but the Russians do and it is their finger on the Russian nuclear trigger,” Schneider said.
Adm. William Gortney, commander of the U.S. Northern Command, which is in charge of defending the continental United States, said Russia is qualitatively building up its military forces, with a new doctrine and, in particular, new cruise missiles capable of hitting the United States from Russian airspace.
“They’ve read our play book and they’re putting in force, they’re fielding cruise missiles that are very, very accurate, very long range,” Gortney said Wednesday in remarks to the Atlantic Council, a think tank.
The new missile has been identified by other defense officials as a KH-101 air launched cruise missile that can be armed with either nuclear or conventional warheads.
The missile can reach U.S. infrastructure targets in Canada and the United States from launch points within Russian air space, Gortney said.
Gortney said the Russians have been “messaging” the United States with long-range nuclear-capable bomber flights along U.S. and Canadian borders.
War game scenarios in recent months have included simulated Russian conventional cruise missile strikes on long-range early warning radar in Alaska, he said.
The military blog said the increase of 66 Russian warheads and nine launchers since March, when the last treaty numbers were released, probably reflects Moscow’s deployment of new submarine-launched Bulava missiles on the new submarine Alexander Nevsky, launched in April.
Army Lt. Col. Martin O’Donnell, a spokesman for the U.S. Strategic Command, said the treaty “continues to enhance security and strategic stability.”
“We fully expect Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018,” he said.
Thomas Moore, a former professional staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who specialized in arms control, said he is not surprised the Russians are over treaty limits while the the United States is below them.
“But I guess we are under it early because ‘business-like’ implementation of the treaty is a way the administration can appear to be doing something, and they have a base of left-wing support which demands we go lower still, and faster,” Moore said.
Russia has been building up its forces steadily, he added.
“Its raid of Kalibr cruise missiles from the Caspian to targets in Syria is another sign that, along with New START warhead numbers, its nuclear-capable systems, strategic warheads, and overall nuclear capability at all ranges and with all types of weapons is building up, not down.”

A Closer Look At The Sixth Seal (Rev 6:12)

A Look at the Tri-State’s Active Fault Line

Monday, March 14, 2011

The Ramapo Fault is the longest fault in the Northeast that occasionally makes local headlines when minor tremors cause rock the Tri-State region. It begins in Pennsylvania, crosses the Delaware River and continues through Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Passaic and Bergen counties before crossing the Hudson River near Indian Point nuclear facility.
In the past, it has generated occasional activity that generated a 2.6 magnitude quake in New Jersey’s Peakpack/Gladstone area and 3.0 magnitude quake in Mendham.

But the New Jersey-New York region is relatively seismically stable according to Dr. Dave Robinson, Professor of Geography at Rutgers. Although it does have activity.

“There is occasional seismic activity in New Jersey,” said Robinson. “There have been a few quakes locally that have been felt and done a little bit of damage over the time since colonial settlement — some chimneys knocked down in Manhattan with a quake back in the 18th century, but nothing of a significant magnitude.”

Robinson said the Ramapo has on occasion registered a measurable quake but has not caused damage: “The Ramapo fault is associated with geological activities back 200 million years ago, but it’s still a little creaky now and again,” he said.

“More recently, in the 1970s and early 1980s, earthquake risk along the Ramapo Fault received attention because of its proximity to Indian Point,” according to the New Jersey Geological Survey website.

Historically, critics of the Indian Point Nuclear facility in Westchester County, New York, did cite its proximity to the Ramapo fault line as a significant risk.

In 1884, according to the New Jersey Geological Survey website, the  Rampao Fault was blamed for a 5.5 quake that toppled chimneys in New York City and New Jersey that was felt from Maine to Virginia.

“Subsequent investigations have shown the 1884 Earthquake epicenter was actually located in Brooklyn, New York, at least 25 miles from the Ramapo Fault,” according to the New Jersey Geological Survey website.

Iran Is Officially Nuclear (Daniel 8)

It’s ‘Adoption Day’ — launch time for the Iran nuclear deal

By Ben Brumfield, CNN
Updated 4:45 PM ET, Sun October 18, 2015

(CNN) It’s Sunday, October 18, the day the Iran nuclear deal gets rolling.
Adoption Day” for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the deal is formally called, means that officials from Iran, the United States and other world powers involved in the deal get started turning it into reality.
But that doesn’t mean Iran will go out Sunday and wind down centrifuges enriching nuclear fuel or that Western nations will remove the millstone of economic sanctions around Iran’s neck.

Iran’s parliament approves nuclear deal

All of that could take a decade, in total, of checking off long lists of compliance.
For anything real to happen, a lot of legislative procedure, administration and bureaucracy must come first, and that kicks off on Adoption Day.
Here are some things to expect now and in the future as the Iran deal passes complex milestones designated as particular “Days.”

Why October 18?

The JCPOA stipulates that Adoption Day be 90 days after Finalization Day, which was the day the U.N. Security Council endorsed the deal after all the negotiating parties — Iran, the United States, Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia, as well as the European Union — agreed to it.
The Security Council adopted a resolution to endorse the deal on July 20. Count forward 90 days, and you get Sunday, October 18.
What will Iran do?
Iran will tell the International Atomic Energy Agency that, on a future date, Tehran will apply the Additional Protocol, according to the JCPOA. That’s a legal document that gives nuclear inspectors added authority to check up on Iran’s obligations that are designed to prevent it from working toward a nuclear weapon.
That future date is Implementation Day — yet another milestone in the agreement, and the big one, when parties are satisfied that Iran has made adjustments to its nuclear program and the West eases off of sanctions.
“Implementation Day will not happen until Iran complies with all steps under JCPOA,” a U.S. official told reporters on a conference call late Saturday.
Starting Sunday, Iran will also help the IAEA clarify past and current concerns about its nuclear program.

What will the United States do?

President Barack Obama will issue waivers on sanctions. They won’t be good until Implementation Day, but they will address Iran’s oil sales and transportation and banking industries, among others.
The President will also address the future lifting of other sanctions.
“Today marks an important milestone toward preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and ensuring its nuclear program is exclusively peaceful going forward,” Obama said in a statement Sunday.
The White House, Tehran and the European Union will also confer on how to announce things to the world. Past talk of lifting sanctions on Iran has set off heated opposition in the U.S. Congress.
Republican presidential contender Donald Trump piled on when the deal was ratified, saying he would have added sanctions in the deal. But he and fellow Republican candidate Jeb Bush have said they would not tear up the JCPOA.
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has railed against the deal in the past, even traveling to Washington to beseech Congress to reject it, for fear it could lead to Iran acquiring an atomic bomb.
Apropos of bad PR: Iran ruffled feathers with a missile test a week ago that may have violated a U.N. resolution.
A few days later, it showed off video of cavernous underground missile silos.
None of that violated the nuclear agreement, but it spread unease just before Adoption Day.

What will other parties to the deal do?

The European Union will adopt a regulation to terminate sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program. But again, it wouldn’t take effect until that all-important Implementation Day.
The EU countries that helped hammer out the nuclear deal will start work with Iran on a document that defines specific joint responsibilities including changes to Iran’s Arak Heavy Water Reactor.
Some have feared that Arak could produce a lot of bomb-grade plutonium in a short period of time.
China will play an important role in making such technical adjustments, a Washington official told reporters.
After Adoption Day, Implementation Day is the next milestone; then come Transition Day and UNSCR Termination Day.
Implementation Day marks Iran’s concrete tackling of banned changes to its nuclear program, and the beginning of the end for sanctions. Some can be reimposed, should Iran dodge compliance.
Transition Day is eight years from Adoption Day — or it could come earlier, if “the IAEA has reached the Broader Conclusion that all nuclear material in Iran remains in peaceful activities,” as the deal states. A U.S. official stressed to journalists that speed of compliance is nice, but secondary.
Washington is “more worried that it’s done right, than if it’s done quickly.” Transition Day also means even more of the many, many sanctions would fall.
And finally, 10 years from now, UNSCR Termination Day would roll around. The abbreviation stands for U.N. Security Council resolution — the one that was passed on Finalization Day endorsing the Iran nuclear deal.
That “Day” would mark the end of the long process to create trust through verification of the peaceful nature of Iran’s program, and virtually all remaining sanctions would fall.
But some obligations from the agreement would continue.

What does the future hold?

If things work out, maybe an Iran without nuclear weapons that is more prosperous and eager to trade with the rest of the world. Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond was optimistic Sunday that they will.
“This will ensure that a nuclear weapon remains beyond Iran’s reach, thus creating a safer region while opening opportunities for Iran to re-engage with the international community as sanctions are progressively lifted,” he said in a statement.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was more measured.
“If fully implemented, it will bring unprecedented insight and accountability to Iran’s nuclear program forever. As we move from Adoption Day now towards Implementation Day, I and my entire team will remain vigilant and mindful of not just how far we have come, but how much further we have to go in seeing that this deal is fully implemented,” he said in a statement.

If things don’t work out?

Proponents of the deal say that even in a bad scenario, the JCPOA would give the United States proper justification, and some lead time, to carry out tough actions.
Critics fear the worst if compliance goes south: a financially better-off Iran supporting regional terrorism and armed with a nuclear arsenal.

Nukes Spread To The Arabian Peninsula (Daniel 7)

The ObamaNuke deal is really working out well

October 17, 2015
Daniel Greenfield

The ObamaNuke deal is really working out well. Don’t worry, there’ll be an official denial of this soon enough. Just like the last time a Sunni Gulf Muslim official stated that they were going nuclear. This way the SmartPower gang can keep living in a bubble that pretends their failed foreign policy is successful.

Representative Ed Royce (R-CA), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef al-Otaiba told him over the phone that the UAE is no longer bound by its previous nuclear agreement with the US, in a troubling sign of a regional nuclear arms race that Saudi Arabia has already indicated it will likely take part in.

“He told me, ‘your worst enemy has achieved this right to enrich. It’s a right to enrich now that your friends are going to want, too, and we won’t be the only country,’” Royce told The Associated Press.
The US made an agreement with the UAE in 2009, promising to aid the Gulf state in producing nuclear energy in return for the UAE promising not to enrich uranium or reprocess spent fuel to extract plutonium, both of which are processes to build a nuclear weapon.

The UAE Embassy in Washington wrote that the “government has not formally changed its views or perspective on the 123 Agreement or commitments,” referring to the 2009 agreement.

They got that “formally” in there. These guys are learning to write press releases like Obama. Maybe they’ll just informally go nuclear… like Iran.

Obama claims that the Gulfies don’t need nukes because Iran won’t go nuclear and in any case, he’ll protect them. Only an idiot would believe either of those things and no one outside the liberal bubble is that stupid.

So we’ve got a nuclear arms race in the region. Must be part of Obama’s plan for Nuclear Zero and a nuclear free world.