Brace Yourselves for the Sixth Seal (Revelation 6)


Brace Yourselves, New Yorkers, You’re Due for a Major Quake

A couple of hundred thousand years ago, an M 7.2 earthquake shook what is now New Hampshire. Just a few thousand years ago, an M 7.5 quake ruptured just off the coast of Massachusetts. And then there’s New York.

Since the first western settlers arrived there, the state has witnessed 200 quakes of magnitude 2.0 or greater, making it the third most seismically active state east of the Mississippi (Tennessee and South Carolina are ranked numbers one and two, respectively). About once a century, New York has also experienced an M 5.0 quake capable of doing real damage.

The most recent one near New York City occurred in August of 1884. Centered off Long Island’s Rockaway Beach, it was felt over 70,000 square miles. It also opened enormous crevices near the Brooklyn reservoir and knocked down chimneys and cracked walls in Pennsylvania and Connecticut. Police on the Brooklyn Bridge said it swayed “as if struck by a hurricane” and worried the bridge’s towers would collapse. Meanwhile, residents throughout New York and New Jersey reported sounds that varied from explosions to loud rumblings, sometimes to comic effect. At the funeral of Lewis Ingler, a small group of mourners were watching as the priest began to pray. The quake cracked an enormous mirror behind the casket and knocked off a display of flowers that had been resting on top of it. When it began to shake the casket’s silver handles, the mourners decided the unholy return of Lewis Ingler was more than they could take and began flinging themselves out windows and doors.

Not all stories were so light. Two people died during the quake, both allegedly of fright. Out at sea, the captain of the brig Alice felt a heavy lurch that threw him and his crew, followed by a shaking that lasted nearly a minute. He was certain he had hit a wreck and was taking on water.

A day after the quake, the editors of The New York Times sought to allay readers’ fear. The quake, they said, was an unexpected fluke never to be repeated and not worth anyone’s attention: “History and the researches of scientific men indicate that great seismic disturbances occur only within geographical limits that are now well defined,” they wrote in an editorial. “The northeastern portion of the United States . . . is not within those limits.” The editors then went on to scoff at the histrionics displayed by New York residents when confronted by the quake: “They do not stop to reason or to recall the fact that earthquakes here are harmless phenomena. They only know that the solid earth, to whose immovability they have always turned with confidence when everything else seemed transitory, uncertain, and deceptive, is trembling and in motion, and the tremor ceases long before their disturbed minds become tranquil.”
That’s the kind of thing that drives Columbia’s Heather Savage nuts.

New York, she says, is positively vivisected by faults. Most of them fall into two groups—those running northeast and those running northwest. Combined they create a brittle grid underlying much of Manhattan.

Across town, Charles Merguerian has been studying these faults the old‐fashioned way: by getting down and dirty underground. He’s spent the past forty years sloshing through some of the city’s muckiest places: basements and foundations, sewers and tunnels, sometimes as deep as 750 feet belowground. His tools down there consist primarily of a pair of muck boots, a bright blue hard hat, and a pickax. In public presentations, he claims he is also ably abetted by an assistant hamster named Hammie, who maintains his own website, which includes, among other things, photos of the rodent taking down Godzilla.

That’s just one example why, if you were going to cast a sitcom starring two geophysicists, you’d want Savage and Merguerian to play the leading roles. Merguerian is as eccentric and flamboyant as Savage is earnest and understated. In his press materials, the former promises to arrive at lectures “fully clothed.” Photos of his “lab” depict a dingy porta‐john in an abandoned subway tunnel. He actively maintains an archive of vintage Chinese fireworks labels at least as extensive as his list of publications, and his professional website includes a discography of blues tunes particularly suitable for earthquakes. He calls female science writers “sweetheart” and somehow manages to do so in a way that kind of makes them like it (although they remain nevertheless somewhat embarrassed to admit it).

It’s Merguerian’s boots‐on‐the‐ground approach that has provided much of the information we need to understand just what’s going on underneath Gotham. By his count, Merguerian has walked the entire island of Manhattan: every street, every alley. He’s been in most of the tunnels there, too. His favorite one by far is the newest water tunnel in western Queens. Over the course of 150 days, Merguerian mapped all five miles of it. And that mapping has done much to inform what we know about seismicity in New York.

Most importantly, he says, it provided the first definitive proof of just how many faults really lie below the surface there. And as the city continues to excavate its subterranean limits, Merguerian is committed to following closely behind. It’s a messy business.

Down below the city, Merguerian encounters muck of every flavor and variety. He power‐washes what he can and relies upon a diver’s halogen flashlight and a digital camera with a very, very good flash to make up the difference. And through this process, Merguerian has found thousands of faults, some of which were big enough to alter the course of the Bronx River after the last ice age.
His is a tricky kind of detective work. The center of a fault is primarily pulverized rock. For these New York faults, that gouge was the very first thing to be swept away by passing glaciers. To do his work, then, he’s primarily looking for what geologists call “offsets”—places where the types of rock don’t line up with one another. That kind of irregularity shows signs of movement over time—clear evidence of a fault.

Merguerian has found a lot of them underneath New York City.

These faults, he says, do a lot to explain the geological history of Manhattan and the surrounding area. They were created millions of years ago, when what is now the East Coast was the site of a violent subduction zone not unlike those present now in the Pacific’s Ring of Fire.

Each time that occurred, the land currently known as the Mid‐Atlantic underwent an accordion effect as it was violently folded into itself again and again. The process created immense mountains that have eroded over time and been further scoured by glaciers. What remains is a hodgepodge of geological conditions ranging from solid bedrock to glacial till to brittle rock still bearing the cracks of the collision. And, says Merguerian, any one of them could cause an earthquake.

You don’t have to follow him belowground to find these fractures. Even with all the development in our most built‐up metropolis, evidence of these faults can be found everywhere—from 42nd Street to Greenwich Village. But if you want the starkest example of all, hop the 1 train at Times Square and head uptown to Harlem. Not far from where the Columbia University bus collects people for the trip to the Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory, the subway tracks seem to pop out of the ground onto a trestle bridge before dropping back down to earth. That, however, is just an illusion. What actually happens there is that the ground drops out below the train at the site of one of New York’s largest faults. It’s known by geologists in the region as the Manhattanville or 125th Street Fault, and it runs all the way across the top of Central Park and, eventually, underneath Long Island City. Geologists have known about the fault since 1939, when the city undertook a massive subway mapping project, but it wasn’t until recently that they confirmed its potential for a significant quake.

In our lifetimes, a series of small earthquakes have been recorded on the Manhattanville Fault including, most recently, one on October 27, 2001. Its epicenter was located around 55th and 8th—directly beneath the original Original Soupman restaurant, owned by restaurateur Ali Yeganeh, the inspiration for Seinfeld’s Soup Nazi. That fact delighted sitcom fans across the country, though few Manhattanites were in any mood to appreciate it.

The October 2001 quake itself was small—about M 2.6—but the effect on residents there was significant. Just six weeks prior, the city had been rocked by the 9/11 terrorist attacks that brought down the World Trade Center towers. The team at Lamont‐Doherty has maintained a seismic network in the region since the ’70s. They registered the collapse of the first tower at M 2.1. Half an hour later, the second tower crumbled with even more force and registered M 2.3. In a city still shocked by that catastrophe, the early‐morning October quake—several times greater than the collapse of either tower—jolted millions of residents awake with both reminders of the tragedy and fear of yet another attack. 9‐1‐1 calls overwhelmed dispatchers and first responders with reports of shaking buildings and questions about safety in the city. For seismologists, though, that little quake was less about foreign threats to our soil and more about the possibility of larger tremors to come.

Remember: The Big Apple has experienced an M 5.0 quake about every hundred years. The last one was that 1884 event. And that, says Merguerian, means the city is overdue. Just how overdue?

“Gee whiz!” He laughs when I pose this question. “That’s the holy grail of seismicity, isn’t it?”

He says all we can do to answer that question is “take the pulse of what’s gone on in recorded history.” To really have an answer, we’d need to have about ten times as much data as we do today. But from what he’s seen, the faults below New York are very much alive.

“These guys are loaded,” he tells me.

He says he is also concerned about new studies of a previously unknown fault zone known as the Ramapo that runs not far from the city. Savage shares his concerns. They both think it’s capable of an M 6.0 quake or even higher—maybe even a 7.0. If and when, though, is really anybody’s guess.

“We literally have no idea what’s happening in our backyard,” says Savage.

What we do know is that these quakes have the potential to do more damage than similar ones out West, mostly because they are occurring on far harder rock capable of propagating waves much farther. And because these quakes occur in places with higher population densities, these eastern events can affect a lot more people. Take the 2011 Virginia quake: Although it was only a moderate one, more Americans felt it than any other one in our nation’s history.

That’s the thing about the East Coast: Its earthquake hazard may be lower than that of the West Coast, but the total effect of any given quake is much higher. Disaster specialists talk about this in terms of risk, and they make sense of it with an equation that multiplies the potential hazard of an event by the cost of damage and the number of people harmed. When you take all of those factors into account, the earthquake risk in New York is much greater than, say, that in Alaska or Hawaii or even a lot of the area around the San Andreas Fault.

Merguerian has been sounding the alarm about earthquake risk in the city since the ’90s. He admits he hasn’t gotten much of a response. He says that when he first proposed the idea of seismic risk in New York City, his fellow scientists “booed and threw vegetables” at him. He volunteered his services to the city’s Office of Emergency Management but says his original offer also fell on deaf ears.

“So I backed away gently and went back to academia.”

Today, he says, the city isn’t much more responsive, but he’s getting a much better response from his peers.

He’s glad for that, he says, but it’s not enough. If anything, the events of 9/11, along with the devastation caused in 2012 by Superstorm Sandy, should tell us just how bad it could be there.

He and Savage agree that what makes the risk most troubling is just how little we know about it. When it comes right down to it, intraplate faults are the least understood. Some scientists think they might be caused by mantle flow deep below the earth’s crust. Others think they might be related to gravitational energy. Still others think quakes occurring there might be caused by the force of the Atlantic ridge as it pushes outward. Then again, it could be because the land is springing back after being compressed thousands of years ago by glaciers (a phenomenon geologists refer to as seismic rebound).

“We just have no consciousness towards earthquakes in the eastern United States,” says Merguerian. “And that’s a big mistake.”

Adapted from Quakeland: On the Road to America’s Next Devastating Earthquake by Kathryn Miles, published by Dutton, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House, LLC. Copyright © 2017 by Kathryn Miles.

The White House Should Have Thought Of This Before Axing the Iran Deal

WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday warned Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons, saying it would face the “wrath of the entire world” if it did so, but added that he hoped it would never be necessary for the United States to take military action against the country.

In an interview with political columnist Hugh Hewitt conducted on Friday and broadcast the following day on MSNBC, Pompeo said that whatever the fate of the international nuclear deal with Iran, it would not be in Tehran’s interest to seek nuclear arms.

“I hope they understand that if they begin to ramp up their nuclear program, the wrath of the entire world will fall upon them,” he said.

“Wholly separate from if they spin a couple of extra centrifuges, if they began to move to a weapons program, this is something the entire world would find unacceptable and we’d end up down a path that I don’t think is in the best interests of Iran,” Pompeo said.
He said, however, he was not talking about a US military response.

“When I say wrath, don’t confuse that with military action. When I say wrath, I mean the moral opprobrium and economic power that fell upon them. That’s what I’m speaking to. I’m not talking to military action here. I truly hope that that’s never the case. It’s not in anyone’s best interests for that.”

Pressed on whether the United States would do whatever it had to do to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Pompeo said: “President Trump has been unambiguous in his statements that say Iran will not be able to obtain a nuclear weapon.”

The Antichrist Consolidates His Power (Revelation 13)

Iraqi PM Abadi and Anti-American Shiite Cleric Sadr Announce Alliance


The Sairun Alliance, backed by the prominent Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, won 54 parliamentary mandates during the first Iraqi parliamentary election since Daesh* defeat.

When speaking at the a news conference in the Shiite holy city of Najaf where Muqtada Sadr lives, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has announced a political alliance with the prominent Shiite cleric.

On Thursday, Abadi called on the winning political blocs to hold a meeting to form a new government, which, according to the prime minister, may happen after the celebration of the end of the Muslim holy month Ramadan.

© AFP 2018 / Haidar HAMDANI

Sadr’s Saairun Alliance won the May 2018 elections, securing 54 seats in the Iraqi parliament, while the Conquest Alliance led by Hadi Amiri gained 47 seats, and Abadi’s Victory Alliance earned 42 seats in the 329-seat parliament.

Sadr is known as an anti-American cleric who led the Iraqi Shiite militia known as the Mahdi Army in their fight against US troops following the 2003 invasion, according to media reports.

Elections to the Iraqi parliament were held on May 12 for the first time after the country was liberated from Daesh terrorists.

*Daesh, also known as ISIS, Islamic State is a terrorist group banned in Russia

New York Quake Overdue (The Sixth Seal) (Revelation 6:12)

New York City Is Overdue For Large Earthquake: Seismologist

New York City could start shaking any minute now.

Won-Young Kim, who runs the seismographic network for the Northeast at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said the city is well overdue for a big earthquake.

From Metro New York:

The last big quake to hit New York City was a 5.3-magnitude tremor in 1884 that happened at sea in between Brooklyn and Sandy Hook. While no one was killed, buildings were damaged.

Kim said the city is likely to experience a big earthquake every 100 years or so.

“It can happen anytime soon,” Kim said. “We can expect it any minute, we just don’t know when and where.”

New York has never experienced a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake, which are the most dangerous. But magnitude 5 quakes could topple brick buildings and chimneys.

Seismologist John Armbruster said a magnitude 5 quake that happened now would be more devastating than the one that happened in 1884.

“Today, with so many more buildings and people … we’d see billions in damage,” Armbruster said. “People would probably be killed.”

The Antichrist’s Turnaround with Iran

Moqtada al-Sadr’s Turnaround with Iran

Al Arabiya

Muqtada al-Sadr disappointed many who had initially believed that the victory of his electoral list in the recent Iraqi elections was a defeat for Tehran, especially after Sadr stated on several occasions that he wished to be distant from it and to take Iraq away from where Iran wants it to be.

The disappointment, of course, comes with the announcement of an alliance between the Sairoon list of Muqtada al-Sadr with Al-Fatah list which is led by Tehran’s number one man in Iraq Hadi al-Amiri. Amiri’s list came in second among Shiite victors in the elections.

There is a striking Arab absence from every aspect of life in Iraq. There is no trace of an Arab presence in Baghdad, except for the embassies inhabited by wary diplomats who pass most of their time within the confines of their missions. This reality makes any attempt to distance oneself from Tehran like a journey into the unknown

Hazem al-Amin

Iran’s continuing sway

In fact, the notion that Tehran has suffered a setback during the Iraqi elections is a mistake for various reasons. For the sake of the argument, even if we believe that Sadr’s victory marks a relapse for Tehran, it is to be noted that the total number of seats won and that are closely linked to Iran will lead to the conclusion that Tehran has the largest influence in the new Iraqi parliament.

In addition, those who rushed to welcome Sadr’s victory out of belief that he is a foe of Tehran are naïve and unaware of the nature of the relations between the Shiites of Iraq and the sectarian depth (Iran) and the national depth (the Arab world).

The Shiites of Iraq feel that they are Arabs. Every day, they find contrast between their Shiism and the Shi’ism of Iran. Many of these dissimilarities are cultural, linguistic and economic and have to do with everyday life. At the same time they feel the advancement of the sectarian depth as opposed to national depth. Even if sourness in relations with Tehran has given them some negative feelings, the bitterness of the relationship with Arab states has produced even more negativity.

Another thing to highlight in this regard is that Tehran is present in every sphere of Iraqi public life. It is present in the corruption, in the militias, in the wars and in the number of its tourists and visitors to Iraq. Iran is present in the formation of party lists, alliances and in relations with Sunnis and Kurds.

In contrast, there is a striking Arab absence from every aspect of life in Iraq. There is no trace of an Arab presence in Baghdad, except for the embassies inhabited by wary diplomats who pass most of their time within the confines of their missions.

This reality makes any attempt to distance oneself from Tehran like a journey into the unknown. Who will embrace those who decide to distance themselves from Tehran? And even if one finds someone, how will this relationship be managed? How can someone who decides to stay away from Tehran receive help of Arabs who are nowhere in the picture?

Sadr’s ties with Qom

Little research has been done to help understand the nature of the relations between Muqtada al-Sadr and Tehran. The man who recently “stepped away” from Iran has lived in Qom for years and studied at the hands of its scholars. He is the son of the Vocal Hawza which was founded by his father and which is the closest Iraqi Fiqh school to the current Wilayat al-Faqih doctrine. In contrast, he was one of the most turbulent Iraqi Shiite politicians and he made statements that were not in accordance with the Iranian position, whether in Iraq or the region.

Sadr has recently announced that he will form an alliance with Hadi al-Amiri, the leader of the Iraqi militias fighting on all sectarian fronts and which have been formed under Qassem Soleimani’s supervision. It is also worth mentioning that Sadr also has his own militias, known as Saraya al-Salam. This alliance cannot be understood within the context that Sadr’s victory in the elections means Tehran’s defeat.

Iran has many cards in its hands, even more so in Iraq. It has been watching the progress of the ‘troublesome’ politician in the elections and did not rush to categorize him as an opponent. Iran is well aware that the sectarian reality is stronger than politicians’ choices and aspirations to stay away from it. Iran is also aware that those who wish to keep distance will not find what they need with ‘others,’ whether Arabs or Turks. We cannot leave aside the great misunderstanding between Sadr and Washington, which is much more than his misunderstanding with Tehran. This fact should be taken into consideration by those who concluded that Sadr’s victory means the defeat of Tehran.

While Sadr and Amiri were meeting in Najaf, Qassem Soleimani was making a pilgrimage to Karbala, watching the details of the meeting and sending his fake smiles through Skype to the negotiating teams.

This article is also available in Arabic.


Hazem al-Amin is a Lebanese writer and journalist at al-Hayat. He was a field reporter for the newspaper, and covered wars in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq and Gaza. He specialized in reporting on Islamists in Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, Kurdistan and Pakistan, and on Muslim affairs in Europe. He has been described by regional media outlets as one of Lebanon’s most intelligent observers of Arab and Lebanese politics.

Last Update: Friday, 22 June 2018 KSA 14:25 – GMT 11:25

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Al Arabiya English’s point-of-view.

A Micro Shake Before the Sixth Seal (Revelation 6:12)

Microearthquake’ hit N.J. early Thursday. Did you feel it?

By Anthony G. Attrino

tattrino@njadvancemedia.com,NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Updated Jun 21; Posted Jun 21

Though you might not have felt it, an earthquake hit South Jersey this morning.

The United States Geological Survey reported a magnitude 1.6 earthquake occurred at 12:28 a.m. Thursday near the Leisuretown section of Southampton Township in Burlington County.

The low-intensity “microearthquake” was at a depth of 7.5 miles, according to the USGS.

Earthquakes below 2.0 in magnitude are rarely felt beyond their 5-mile epicenter, according to experts.

They cause little or no damage to property and are often referred to as silent or aseismic.

There are around 900,000 earthquakes with magnitudes below 2.5 each year, according to Michigan Technical University.

In 2006, Standford University published a report stating these tiny earthquakes could be a precursor to larger, more destructive events.

The last tremor felt in New Jersey occurred Nov. 30 and was centered in Delaware.

That quake measured 4.1 on the Richter scale and was felt by residents in central and southern New Jersey, New York City and as far south as Virginia.

In 2011, a 5.8 magnitude earthquake was felt in New Jersey. That one caused millions of dollars of structural damage to buildings in Washington, D.C., Maryland and in Virginia, where it was centered.

Anthony G. Attrino may be reached at tattrino@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @TonyAttrino. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

Building the German Nuclear Horn (Daniel 7:7)



German officials have reportedly asked their American counterparts about whether it would be possible to turn the Eurofighter Typhoon into a nuclear strike aircraft. The answer to this question could have serious ramifications on Germany’s effort to replace its aging Panavia Tornado combat jets, which are certified to carry U.S. B61 nuclear bombs during a crisis as part of an inter-NATO agreement, and reinforces previous reports that the European fighter jet is the German Air Force’s preferred option.

In April 2018, the German Federal Ministry of Defense sent a formal letter to U.S. officials asking about whether it would be feasible to configure Typhoons for the nuclear mission, how expensive it would be, and how long the process might take, according to Reuters.

The German Air Force’s ability to fly nuclear strikes has become an increasingly important issue even though the country is not a nuclear power itself. During the Cold War, Germany, as well as other NATO allies, agreed to host American nuclear bombs with the understanding that their aircraft could be called upon to employ them if a major conflict with the Soviet Union broke out.

After the Cold War, this arrangement has persisted and the Germans continue to keep an unspecified number of B61 bombs at Büchel Air Base near the borders with Belgium and Luxembourg. The problem is that the only German aircraft that can carry these weapons are the Tornados, which are in desperate need of replacement.


A German Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon armed with a conventional bomb during a training exercise.

Availability rates for the Cold War-era swing wing jets have dramatically dropped in recent years. In 2015, state broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported that only 30 of the approximately 85 remaining aircraft were airworthy at any one time.

The aircraft also lack cockpits that will work with night vision goggles, which limits the jet’s ability to perform missions at night. In March 2018, German magazine Der Spiegel also obtained a report calling into question the security of the Tornado’s data links.

“This could in the worst case mean that the demand for an encrypted communication system for the Tornado weapons system can’t be achieved,” the document stated according to the report. “That means the Tornado weapons system may not take part in NATO missions.”

The German Air Force disputed the story, saying that all of the Tornados set aside to support the alliance’s requirements had the equipment necessary to perform their missions. Regardless, the service has made no effort to hide the importance of replacing the jets.


A German Air Force Tornado combat jet.

The Germans will need to certify whatever aircraft replaces the Tornado as a nuclear-capable platform in order to continue performing the mission. In addition to Eurofighter, the Germans are considering an unspecified variant of Boeing’s F-15 Eagle or that company’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, and Lockheed Martin’s stealthy F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

The process to make sure any of those planes could carry the B61 would likely include ensuring they could safely drop the bombs at all, as well as developing appropriate mission systems and software to enable this capability under various different attack parameters.

In addition, engineers would have to find ways to install the necessary systems and linkages so that the pilot can arm the weapon in flight. Each one of the bombs has a so-called “Permissive Action Link,” or PAL, that prevents the warhead from functioning until an individual puts in a specific code. You can read more about these safety features and other components of the bombs in this past feature.


B61 nuclear bombs or training shapes.

The U.S. military has not certified any variants of the Joint Strike Fighter to carry the B61, but Air Force is in the process of doing so with regards to the F-35A. The aircraft types that Boeing is offering are the only ones in the running that have already gone through this process.

But the German Air Force’s top preference is reportedly the Eurofighter. Germany already has nearly 130 of the jets in service and recently began adding a robust air-to-ground capability to some of them.


“A possible purchase of the Eurofighter would ensure the retention of military aircraft expertise in Germany and Europe, and value creation in our own country,” Germany’s Deputy Defense Minister Ralf Brauksiepe told the Green Party’s Tobias Lindner in a letter earlier in 2018, according to Reuters. “The weapons system has already been introduced to the Bundeswehr [the German Armed Forces] and is being successfully used.”

Replacing the Tornados with Eurofighters does make good sense, something we at The War Zone have noted in the past. As I wrote in December 2017:

“Eurofighter, a consortium that includes portions of Airbus Defense in Germany and Spain, BAE Systems in the United Kingdom, and Leonardo in Italy, manage the development and production of the fighter jets. A major sale to the Luftwaffe could be worth billions to the group and help keep the production line running and its employees at work, an important domestic consideration for the Germans. On Dec. 11, 2017, Qatar signed a deal for 24 of its own Eurofighters, making it the ninth country to buy the type.

This alone could mean significantly lower training and maintenance costs, not to mention saving on large infrastructure needs, compared to acquiring an entirely new type of aircraft, and especially one with high secondary cost demands like the F-35. It also could make it easier for the Luftwaffe to quickly absorb the new aircraft into its inventory. Existing Typhoon variants are already compatible with the targeting and reconnaissance pods the Luftwaffe uses on the Tornado, as well as many of its weapons. Saab has already tested the Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile on one of the fourth generation fighter jets, as well, giving it a relatively long-range standoff attack capability.”

There is a growing concern, however, that the Eurofighter won’t be survivable enough to perform the nuclear mission in the future. One source told Reuters that the United States would consider this factor in its response about whether it would certify the jets to carry the B61s.

The implication is that the fifth generation F-35 could be the only realistic option. But German authorities reportedly forced the German Air Force’s previous head, Lieutenant General Karl Müllner, into retirement over his support for the F-35 option, though it’s not clear whether that was over his preference for the jet itself or his public comments on the matter.

It is important to note that the United States has been working to make sure the forthcoming improved B61-12 bombs will be compatible with existing NATO platforms, including Tornado, since 2015. Eurofighter, as well as Boeing, also both insist that their aircraft would be able to carry out nuclear strikes in any high-threat environment in cooperation with electronic warfare aircraft and other supporting assets. NATO members regularly train to do just this as part of what is known as Support of Nuclear Operations With Conventional Air Tactics, or SNOWCAT.

Sandia National Laboratories

An official diagram showing the loadout for a Tornado during tests to determine its suitability to carry the B61-12 bomb.

At the same time, Germany and the rest of the alliance are increasingly worried about Russia’s steadily more aggressive foreign policy. This has included veiled and outright threats against member states and non-NATO partners in Europe. Earlier in June 2018, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova implied that increased U.S. military presence in Norway was an implicit threat toward her country.

The Kremlin has also deployed advanced air defenses and other weapons systems, including the S-400 surface-to-air missile system and Iskander nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missiles, along NATO’s eastern flanks and within its Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea. The latter position means that Russian weapons already have the range to engage aircraft flying over Germany proper. Lieutenant General Müllner and other supporters of buying the F-35 had argued that this reality made a stealthy fifth-generation aircraft a necessity.

Germany has joined with France to develop a new low-observable combat jet for both countries. The Joint Strike Fighter program and other stealth fighter development efforts elsewhere make it clear that this process will be long and potentially exorbitantly expensive. There’s no guarantee that it will produce a working design any time soon, if at all. For all of its very real issues, the F-35 is in production now.

Lockheed Martin

A US Air Force F-35A Joint Strike Fighter.

If the German Air Force does decide to replace the Tornados with more Typhoons, it could take up to a decade to certify the latter type for the nuclear mission, according to Reuters. It’s not clear when that process might begin, but Germany wants to have all of the older Tornado jets out of service by 2030. This means there is a distinct potential for a gap in capability to occur between when the replacement aircraft arrive and when they’re deemed nuclear capable.

Domestic and international politics are almost certain to have an impact on the final decision, too. Germany itself is in the midst of a political crisis that traces back the last federal elections in September 2017. A poor showing for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) part, as well as its allies in the Christian Social Union (CSU), led to six months of deliberations on the future of their bloc.

This was the longest the country had been without a government since the end of World War II. Any further upheaval could impact attempts to increase the country’s defense spending overall and to address systematic readiness issues plaguing the German Armed Forces as a whole.

Perhaps more importantly, German relations with the United States have plummeted amid a largely personal feud between Merkel and President Donald Trump. Richard Grenell, the new U.S. Ambassador to Germany and a Trump appointee, has suggested he could engage with opposition parties looking to unseat the CDU-CSU alliance. In May 2018, Merkel reiterated comments she had made in 2017 that it was increasingly clear Germany could not rely on the United States for protection.

Jesco Denzel/Picture-Alliance/DPA/AP Images

Trump, with arms crossed, listens to Merkel, among other world leaders and officials at the G7 summit in Canada in June 2018.

“It’s no longer the case that the United States will simply just protect us,” Merkel said in the 2018 speech, which also lauded French President Emmanuel Macron who was on hand to receive an award. “Rather, Europe needs to take its fate into its own hands. That’s the task for the future.”

This could make the idea of buying any type of American aircraft increasingly politically untenable. It could also potentially raise new questions about whether Germany should be hosting American nuclear weapons in the first place, which is a controversial issue that left-leaning political parties in the country typically oppose on principle.

In the meantime, the Tornados are only getting older and are steadily less capable of performing any missions, nuclear or otherwise. As such, Germany and the United States will have to come to some agreement on certifying any future planes soon if the German Air Force intends to continue having a nuclear role at all.

Israel Strikes Back Against Hamas Near Jerusalem (Revelation 11:2)

JERUSALEM — Israeli jets struck 25 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip early Wednesday, the military said.

Militants had earlier fired 30 rockets and mortar shells at Israeli territory from the seaside strip, according to the Israeli military. The Iron Dome anti-missile shield intercepted seven rockets, officials said.

Gaza has been controlled by militant group Hamas for more than a decade, during which it has fought three wars against Israel.

Israeli forces have killed more than 120 Palestinians during mass demonstrations along the Gaza border since March 30.

Israel says it’s the only way to prevent mass breaches of the border that would include militants. But the vast majority of the Palestinian casualties have been unarmed, drawing heavy international criticism of Israel’s open-fire orders. Israel blames Hamas for the bloodshed.

Palestinians say the protests are an outpouring of rage by people demanding the right to return to homes their families fled or were driven from following the founding of Israel 70 years ago.

Around two million people live in Gaza, most of them the stateless descendants of refugees from what is now Israel.

The Ramapo: The Sixth Seal Fault Line (Revelation 6:12)

Image result for ramapo fault lineThe Ramapo fault and other New York City area faults 

 Map depicting the extent of the Ramapo Fault System in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania

The Ramapo Fault, which marks the western boundary of the Newark rift basin, has been argued to be a major seismically active feature of this region, but it is difficult to discern the extent to which the Ramapo fault (or any other specific mapped fault in the area) might be any more of a source of future earthquakes than any other parts of the region. The Ramapo Fault zone spans more than 185 miles (300 kilometers) in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. It is a system of faults between the northern Appalachian Mountains and Piedmont areas to the east. This fault is perhaps the best known fault zone in the Mid-Atlantic region, and some small earthquakes have been known to occur in its vicinity. Recently, public knowledge about the fault has increased – especially after the 1970s, when the fault’s proximity to the Indian Point nuclear plant in New York was noticed.

There is insufficient evidence to unequivocally demonstrate any strong correlation of earthquakes in the New York City area with specific faults or other geologic structures in this region. The damaging earthquake affecting New York City in 1884 was probably not associated with the Ramapo fault because the strongest shaking from that earthquake occurred on Long Island (quite far from the trace of the Ramapo fault). The relationship between faults and earthquakes in the New York City area is currently understood to be more complex than any simple association of a specific earthquake with a specific mapped fault.

A 2008 study argued that a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake might originate from the Ramapo fault zone, which would almost definitely spawn hundreds or even thousands of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Studying around 400 earthquakes over the past 300 years, the study also argued that there was an additional fault zone extending from the Ramapo Fault zone into southwestern Connecticut. As can be seen in the above figure of seismicity, earthquakes are scattered throughout this region, with no particular concentration of activity along the Ramapo fault, or along the hypothesized fault zone extending into southwestern Connecticut.

Just off the northern terminus of the Ramapo fault is the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant, built between 1956 and 1960 by Consolidated Edison Company. The plant began operating in 1963, and it has been the subject of a controversy over concerns that an earthquake from the Ramapo fault will affect the power plant. Whether or not the Ramapo fault actually does pose a threat to this nuclear power plant remains an open question.

The Antichrist Will Transcend Sectarianism

Having won the recent parliamentary election, Moqtada al-Sadr and his Sadrist Movement are seeking to reshape the political scene in Iraq: Less corruption, less religion and more civic involvement. A dynamics inspired and described here by his chief of staff, Dhia al-Asadi.

My taxi driver, Mohannad, points to the long scar on his right arm, and the large hollow in his right calf. Like thousands of Iraqis, he bears the traces of the war against the Islamic State (IS). Nearly a year after ISIS was defeated in Mosul, Iraq is determined to move on.

In last May’s parliamentary election – notwithstanding the 55 percent abstention rate – the electorate gave first place to a mixed coalition (Sairoun) led by a religious dignitary, Moqtada al-Sadr, who stands for reforms and anti-corruption.

When he discovers where we are headed, my driver exclaims: “I’m all for Moqtada and the Sadrists!”

Guarded by armed soldiers, the Sadrist headquarters are located in central Baghdad back street in the Arasat district. Dhia al-Asadi wears a fitted business suit. A native of Basra, he joined the movement in 1992.

After getting a degree in linguistics, he wrote secretly to Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, a prominent figure among the opposition to Saddam Hussein.

The young man wanted to know exactly what the ayatollah’s political and intellectual orientations were. All his fellow students belonged to the Baath Party, so he joined the Sadrist movement on the quiet.

After its leader was assassinated in 1999, he spent six months in jail. In 2005, he set up the movement’s first Political Bureau in Basra. In 2012, he headed the Shia coalition, Al-Ahrar, in the parliamentary election and at the same time was made head of the movement’s political bureau.

Today, Dhia al-Asadi is a highly respected spokesperson for its leader, Moqtada al-Sadr. He is seen as the latter’s loyal adviser and is said to be behind the cleric’s political and civic evolution over the past few years.


Quentin Muller

– Why has your leader, Moqtada Al-Sadr become increasingly involved in politics?

Dhia al-Asadi – Moqtada’s involvement in Iraqi politics was a gradual process. In 2003, after the American invasion, he refused to take part in the procedures set up by the occupiers. For him, the American presence was indeed an occupation.

Later, when Iraq had its own government, and because many of his followers had been pushed and were in desperate need of leadership, he felt he had to commit himself to peaceful unarmed resistance and take part in the political process.

2010 was a turning point. We decided to join the Nuri al-Maliki government and since then his commitment has continued to grow. With the end of the occupation, we hoped to bring about anti-corruption reforms and set up a new political system.

Q.M. Wasn’t there a risk that such bold political commitment would disappoint many of your followers?

D.A. – No, because his father’s name is so well-known. All the members of the Sadr family were social activists as well as religious leaders. So when in 2015 he organised street demonstrations against corruption, he saw it as a way to represent his fellow citizens and Iraq as a whole.

This would never have been possible from within the political apparatus, only outside of it, with the people, for a raising of national consciousness. It was necessary to put pressure on the government. At no time was Moqtada al-Sadr worried about his reputation. He felt it was important to demonstrate, to get involved.

Not only does he adhere to the Sadrist school but also to Shia Islam. Let me remind you that one of his forebears was the Imam Husayn who defended the faith at the Battle of Karbala (660 AD). A Shia Imam never sits at home telling his followers what to do. Thus Moqtada took his cue from his predecessors and sought to prove he was a leader who deserved his following.

Q.M. – How did this affect his popularity in Iraq?

D.A.  It grew stronger, and not only among his followers. The younger generation has been drawn in as well. There was a time when his critics claimed that Moqtada al-Sadr’s admirers had already sworn loyalty to his father.

But these young people weren’t even born when his father, Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr was alive. Moreover, our popularity is not confined to the Shia movement but has spread to a few Sunni communities.

In this last election, Sairoun ran some Christian and Kurdish candidates. Which means his popularity is growing, unlike that of other leaders. And this is why liberal and communist politicians, who have always been seen in Iraq as anti-Islamist, have also joined forces with us. Moqtada wants to see Iraq run by its citizens.

Q.M. – That was another big risk. Weren’t you afraid of offending the most pious component of your Shia electorate?

D.A. – Yes, that was a gamble and there were people who thought he would lose the religious base among his supporters, but Moqtada has always wanted to place the nation’s interests first and that is our main objective.

Q.M. – Did you yourself advise him to make that move?

D.A. – There are several of us working with him, but for me it was important. We had to turn towards the civil movement and adopt new ideas.

Ever since I joined him in 1992, I’ve been convinced Iraq’s problems can be solved by a movement like this. I’ve always thought we should give up the confessional rhetoric and adopt a nationalist one. The problem is that the European media saw him as a violent opponent of foreign presence in Iraq and have demonised him. Stereotypes were propagated and the fact that he was one of the country’s few nationalist leaders was completely overlooked.

Q.M. – Why did he distance himself from Iraqi Shia politicians?

D.A. – Moqtada left the Shia coalition because he didn’t trust al-Maliki. And above all he wanted to change our relations with our neighbours. We fought the US intervention in Iraq, but that didn’t mean we had to put up with the presence of Iranians, Turks or other Arabs on our soil. It is positive to have good relations with one’s neighbours, but that doesn’t mean those countries should interfere in our affairs.

Q.M. – Have you carried out surveys among your followers to make sure your new positions won’t cause a split in the Sadrist movement?

D.A. – Our movement involves three different levels. There is Moqtada, the leader, there is an “elite” – though I wouldn’t call us that, rather we are intermediaries, civic advisers, like myself; and then there are the grassroots followers, who trust him implicitly.

There was no need to take a survey or negotiate with them, because whatever he decides, they will go along with it. Sometimes we advisers will get together with him and negotiate, pointing out different possible directions we could take, but the final choice is his. Before making a decision, Moqtar al-Sadr consults with those who are closest to him, in Iraq and abroad.

Q.M. – But still, isn’t it a little odd to have made an alliance with communists and liberals, often viewed in Iraq as “atheists”?

D.A. – In 2015, we took to the streets alongside representatives of the very few other parties involved in the anti-corruption demonstrations, and we realised we had a common goal, a peaceful one: Reforming the political system.

And so Moqtada al-Sadr broached the question: Why not join our efforts and form a single coalition? Some thought such a coalition couldn’t last because of our ideological differences. Sometimes contradictions do arise, but our goal was not to discuss what divides us but rather our common objectives.

Q.M. – You have also advocated for the end of confessional parties…

D.A. – Yes, that’s part of our reform project. We want ministries to be run by technocrats. Today, ministers belong to political parties and therefore parliament cannot take them to court, indict them or oversee their work because they put pressure on the premier and can create dissension within the government itself.

Consequently, the ministers are not working in the interests of the nation and are protected by their respective parties. This is why Moqtar al-Sadr wants to do away with confessional politics.

For this last election he wanted to put together a mixed alliance of people from different religious and social backgrounds around the same national platform.

Supporters celebrate Sadr’s success at the polls in Iraq’s election last month. Iraq’s Supreme Court ruled
on Thursday 21 June in favour of a manual recount. [Anadolu]

In our minds when this alliance sits in parliament it will not legislate in the interests of this or that community and will not appoint community members to reinforce their influence, but will select people qualified to help the country as a whole. And the results of this election are in our favour: Sairoun was elected, despite the massive abstention rate.

Q.M. – Why did the bulk of the Shia community not take part in the election?

D.A. – Many Shias had always thought it was their religious duty to vote for their community. They’d been deceived, because the religious parties had told them that unless they voted for them, the Sunnis would take over the country and bring in another dictator like Saddam Hussein.

And the Sunnis were told the same thing. And then what? In the end, both communities were disappointed by these parties and their leaders who proved incapable of serving the interests of the country instead of their own.

Voting must cease to be a religious duty, and become a national duty instead. That’s why many disappointed people refused to vote for the representatives of their community. Moqtada al-Sadr knew those politicians would not be re-elected because they had failed. The mood in Iraq now favours a change in the political landscape. Unfortunately those politicians have no intention of stepping down or retiring.

Q.M. – Did that mixed coalition bring about a new logic in Iraqi voters’ choices?

D.A. – Yes. In the town of Wasit, in the southern governorate of the same name, a Christian candidate – whose community numbers are fewer than 50 members – was elected with over 5,000 Sadrist votes. Why did our supporters from different religious backgrounds vote for a Christian? Because they understood that his religion had nothing to do with his political capacities and his honesty.

Q.M. – Which social class is most prominent among Sadrist supporters?

D.A. – In general they are people who belong to the middle and lower middle classes. In 2005 they came mostly from the poorest neighborhoods, but today I think people from many different sectors of society voted for Sairoun.

Q.M. – Why has Moqtada al-Sadr always refused to run for office himself?

D.A. – He believes it is a duty not to take part directly in the political jousts. He prefers to remain an observer, watching over the whole system. As a cleric, his duty consists in laying down red lines, in the interests of all Iraqis. He wants to intervene where the people need him, but outside the political arena.

[Click to enlarge]

Q.M. – And perhaps it’s too soon for him…

D.A. – He has often said that a cleric’s place is not in politics. Otherwise – though I am not so sure – when a cleric wants to become involved in politics he should shed his turban and his robe so as to deceive no one.

Q.M. – Do you think he will do that one day?

D.A. – He has all the necessary qualities and all the proper tools, but I don’t think he will.

Q.M. – What is the role he wants to have in Iraq?

D.A. – It is obvious that he wants to play the role of a father or elder brother, caring for all his sons, not only his Sadrist sons, but all Iraqis.

Q.M. – Why does he lay such stress on nationalism, maintaining an even-handed dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates while leaving Iran to one side?

D.A. Moqtada Al-Sadr is not leaving Iran to one side. We are in contact with Iran, but he believes that country is simply a neighbour, like Turkey or Saudi Arabia.

Our relations with all of them should depend only on what they have to offer to Iraq. We must maintain a relationship of equals with the countries on our borders, and work together with them. But on the other hand, we must never let them interfere with our internal affairs. That is why nationalism is essential. To violate that principle is to lose our independence and our sovereignty. We must be powerful enough to protect the national interest.

Our dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates is normal enough. We had to overcome a misunderstanding which dates from 2003. Saudi Arabia feared that a Shia Iraq might become an extension of Iran and its revolution… Which is not the case.

They imagined that every Shia Iraqi spoke Persian and used tomans as their currency, which is really amusing. When they realised our Shias are Arabs and belong to the same families as the Saudis, their concerns were quelled. For example, we have tribes from Mosul living in Basra, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Q.M. – His visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2017 was criticised…

D.A. – Of course, that was a period when the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia were escalating.

Q.M. – So your leader’s intention is to restore balance in the dialogue between those two neighbouring countries?

D.A. – Absolutely. We used to be in close touch with Turkey, then we turned to the Arab countries and then to Iran (too much!), but Moqtada al-Sadr wants to find a balance. It’s very hard.

The recent Turkish incursion in the North, in the Qandil mountains, is proof… We sent a very clear message to our Turkish brothers. Moqtada al-Sadr will always resist forcible infiltration. But it’s very hard for Iraq to take a tough, aggressive decision against Turkey because we have many economic dealings with that country.

Q.M. – To get back to the recent election, there is an impending recount. How do you feel about that?

D.A. – I think that for any election involving fraud or violations of the electoral process, the procedures for appeal should be respected.

In our country, they can go to the federal court. But parliament has taken a decision without waiting for the verdict of either the commission or the federal court. This is against the law and quite irresponsible.

Q.M. – Do you think the recount is a consequence of foreign pressure?

D.A. – I believe there was foreign pressure and influence during and after the election. Those who lost (strangely enough) and who represent a third of parliament, got together to demand this recount… How can they be sure there will be no fraud when the votes are recounted?

Q.M. – Are you afraid of that happening?

D.A. – Yes, we have expressed some fears.

Quentin Muller is a French journalist specialising in issues of the Middle East and North Africa. Follow him on Twitter: @MllerQuentin

This article was originally published by our partners at Orient XXI.Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of al-Araby al-Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.

The Coming German Nuclear Horn (Daniel 7)

German Typhoon fighter takes off\ Ints Kalnins/ REUTERS

Germany Seeks U.S. Certification for Eurofighter Nuclear Role


21.06.2018 | 04:09

Germany has written to Washington asking for clarification as to whether the Eurofighter Typhoon jet is certified to carry nuclear warheads

Germany is pressing Washington to clarify whether it would let the Eurofighter Typhoon carry nuclear bombs as part of shared Western defenses, an issue that could help decide whether Berlin orders more of the jets, sources familiar with the matter said.

Although not a nuclear power, Germany hosts some U.S. nuclear warheads under NATO’s nuclear-sharing policy and operates a number of Tornado warplanes that can deliver them. New jets will need to be certified by Washington to carry out nuclear missions, a process which can take years.

Germany’s defense ministry sent a letter to the U.S. Defense Department in April asking whether certification of the European jets was possible, how much it would cost, and how long it would take, the sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Top U.S. Air Force and Pentagon officials are working to respond to the German query, the sources said.

The multi-billion-euro tender to replace Germany’s fleet of 89 Tornados, which are due to retire in the middle of the next decade, pits the Typhoon against several U.S. contenders at a time of strains in transatlantic ties.

Executives with Airbus (AIR.PA), Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) and Boeing (BA.N) are making presentations to the defense ministry this week after submitting reams of information on their respective warplanes in April, with the formal launch of the competition expected later this year, industry sources said.

The German defense ministry declined comment on the issue.

No comment was immediately available from the Pentagon.

Lockheed’s radar-evading F-35 fighter is already slated to have the nuclear capability in the early 2020s, while the Eurofighter would still need certification.

Airbus has said it is confident Eurofighter – a joint project with Britain’s BAE Systems (BAES.L) and Italy’s Leonardo (LDOF.MI) – could be certified by 2025. Sources familiar with the Eurofighter said it was possible to reconfigure the European jet to carry nuclear bombs.

But U.S. government sources say that schedule is ambitious given that the F-35 and other aircraft must be certified first. Washington has suggested it could take 7-10 years to certify the Eurofighter for nuclear missions, well beyond the Tornado’s retirement date, according to one German military source.

While urging Europe to boost defense spending, U.S. officials are worried about being shut out of European defense projects after 25 EU governments signed a pact in December to fund, develop and deploy armed forces together. [nL2N1QH1P6]

U.S. officials will also weigh whether the Eurofighter could survive a mission into enemy territory to drop a nuclear bomb without stealth capability at a time when Russia and other potential future enemies have bolstered their sensors and air defenses, a second source said.

The F-35 is the only aircraft in the running that has such radar-evading capabilities, but Boeing and Eurofighter argue that their aircraft can work in tandem with jamming equipment.

Volker Paltzo, chief executive of Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug GmbH, told Reuters this week that he remained confident that Eurofighter could take over the roles of the Tornado, and the company had a strategy to deal with a length certification process.

He said the Tornado had been successfully recertified several times after major upgrades.